{"schema":"https://ver.cy/schemas/card/1.0.0","id":"vr.tr.climate-change-scenario","code":"thing-q5133509","url":"https://ver.cy/models/thing/q5133509/","name":"climate change scenario","alternateNames":["climate change and civilizational collapse"],"kind":"thing","status":"published","version":"0.1.0-research.1","language":"en","classifiers":{"family":"Thing Registry","category":"Information and virtual systems","entryKind":"thing","plane":"INF","domain":["INF.MED"],"industry":[],"navPath":"","tags":[],"facets":{}},"whatItIs":"A climate change scenario is a plausible, internally consistent projection of future greenhouse gas emissions under explicit assumptions about human activities and other drivers, used to investigate potential climate changes, impacts and responses rather than to predict what will happen.","purpose":"Enable an AI agent to identify a climate change scenario, assess its assumptions and evidential limits, and judge its suitability for a specified analysis or decision.","scope":{"in":["Scenario identity, version, family and relationship to alternative futures","Socioeconomic, policy, emissions and land-use assumptions","Time-dependent forcing or warming specifications and their reference periods","Climate outcomes explicitly included in or attached to the scenario","Derivation, uncertainty and fitness for a stated decision context"],"out":["The physical climate system and observed climate events","Climate models, integrated assessment models and simulation software as independent tools","Individual simulation runs and datasets as separately managed artifacts","Adaptation or mitigation plans adopted by a particular organisation","Impact assessments whose exposure and vulnerability assumptions are not part of this scenario"],"boundaries":[]},"distinguishingFeatures":["Describes a conditional possible future; it does not become a forecast merely because it contains dates and numerical outcomes.","Specifies assumptions or a trajectory that can drive an analysis; a climate model is the tool used to calculate responses under those assumptions.","May be represented by many simulation runs; one run is a realization of the scenario rather than its complete identity.","A warming level or endpoint alone does not identify the trajectory, timing or overshoot assumptions needed to distinguish scenarios.","A policy target becomes part of a scenario only when its assumed implementation and consequences are specified; the target itself remains a separate object."],"structure":{"bundles":[{"id":"scenario-identity-and-boundaries","name":"Scenario identity and boundaries","description":"Establishes which conditional future is represented and separates it from its implementations and neighboring concepts.","layers":[{"id":"identity-and-lineage","name":"Identity and lineage","description":"Records the scenario's authoritative identity and relationships to other scenarios.","findings":[{"id":"authoritative-scenario-record","name":"Authoritative scenario record","description":"Establish the provider, identifier, version and family without treating a shorthand label as a complete specification.","questions":[{"text":"Which provider record and version identify this scenario, and where is its specification documented?","id":"authoritative-scenario-record-q01","kind":"provenance"},{"text":"Is this a distinct scenario, a revision, a regional derivative or an alternative name for an existing scenario?","id":"authoritative-scenario-record-q02","kind":"boundary"}]}]},{"id":"conditional-future-definition","name":"Conditional future definition","description":"Determines what the scenario asserts and what it leaves to linked models or datasets.","findings":[{"id":"scenario-specification-boundary","name":"Scenario specification boundary","description":"Identify whether the scenario owns a narrative, a quantitative pathway, climate outcomes or a documented combination.","questions":[{"text":"What assumptions and future quantities constitute the scenario itself?","id":"scenario-specification-boundary-q01","kind":"definition"},{"text":"Which linked projections or simulation runs implement the scenario without defining its identity?","id":"scenario-specification-boundary-q02","kind":"boundary"}]}]}]},{"id":"future-drivers-and-consistency","name":"Future drivers and consistency","description":"Captures the assumed human activities and interventions that condition the scenario.","layers":[{"id":"socioeconomic-and-land-use-premises","name":"Socioeconomic and land-use premises","description":"Records relevant assumptions about development, demand, technology and land use.","findings":[{"id":"specified-development-pathway","name":"Specified development pathway","description":"Identify which future drivers are specified, inherited from another pathway or left unspecified.","questions":[{"text":"What assumptions about population, economic activity, energy demand, technology and land use are explicitly included?","id":"specified-development-pathway-q01","kind":"definition"},{"text":"Which source or linked pathway supplies each assumption, and what changes were made when adopting it?","id":"specified-development-pathway-q02","kind":"provenance"}]}]},{"id":"policy-and-feasibility-premises","name":"Policy and feasibility premises","description":"Makes implementation assumptions and consistency constraints inspectable.","findings":[{"id":"assumed-intervention-delivery","name":"Assumed intervention delivery","description":"Record how policies, emissions reductions and removals are assumed to occur and which feasibility questions remain unresolved.","questions":[{"text":"Which interventions are assumed, on what schedule, and with what dependence on compliance, infrastructure or carbon removal?","id":"assumed-intervention-delivery-q01","kind":"definition"},{"text":"What documented checks support consistency between the narrative, resource requirements and quantitative pathway?","id":"assumed-intervention-delivery-q02","kind":"provenance"}]}]}]},{"id":"climate-driver-trajectories","name":"Climate driver trajectories","description":"Defines the time-dependent emissions, concentrations or forcing through which the future is specified.","layers":[{"id":"driver-quantities-and-accounting","name":"Driver quantities and accounting","description":"Establishes variables, units and accounting boundaries for the supplied climate drivers.","findings":[{"id":"interpretable-driver-series","name":"Interpretable driver series","description":"Ensure supplied trajectories can be interpreted without guessing species, units or treatment of emissions and removals.","questions":[{"text":"Which emissions, concentrations or forcing variables are supplied, with what units, temporal resolution and coverage?","id":"interpretable-driver-series-q01","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"How are land-use emissions, removals and any CO₂-equivalent quantities defined and accounted for?","id":"interpretable-driver-series-q02","kind":"boundary"}]}]},{"id":"pathway-shape-and-endpoints","name":"Pathway shape and endpoints","description":"Separates the trajectory from labels based on a single date or level.","findings":[{"id":"temporal-pathway-interpretation","name":"Temporal pathway interpretation","description":"Record peaks, turning points and extensions only where the scenario specification supports them.","questions":[{"text":"What endpoint, peak or turning-point values are defined, and what happens between those dates?","id":"temporal-pathway-interpretation-q01","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"What interpolation or extension rules, if any, may an agent apply beyond the supplied time steps or horizon?","id":"temporal-pathway-interpretation-q02","kind":"action"}]}]}]},{"id":"conditional-climate-outcomes","name":"Conditional climate outcomes","description":"Connects the scenario to climate responses while preserving derivation, baselines and spatial limits.","layers":[{"id":"response-derivation","name":"Response derivation","description":"Traces attached outcomes through models, ensembles and transformations.","findings":[{"id":"traceable-climate-response","name":"Traceable climate response","description":"Establish how each attached climate outcome was obtained and the assumptions added during calculation.","questions":[{"text":"Which models, versions, ensemble members or emulators produced the attached climate outcomes?","id":"traceable-climate-response-q01","kind":"provenance"},{"text":"Which outcomes are prescribed scenario conditions and which are calculated responses?","id":"traceable-climate-response-q02","kind":"boundary"}]}]},{"id":"warming-and-regional-expression","name":"Warming and regional expression","description":"Makes temperature changes, threshold timing and regional climate variables interpretable.","findings":[{"id":"comparable-outcome-conventions","name":"Comparable outcome conventions","description":"Record the baselines, averaging methods and spatial transformations needed to interpret climate change quantities.","questions":[{"text":"Which reference periods, averaging windows and spatial domains define warming levels, threshold crossings and any overshoot?","id":"comparable-outcome-conventions-q01","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"What downscaling or bias adjustment supports regional outcomes, and which local interpretations remain unsupported?","id":"comparable-outcome-conventions-q02","kind":"boundary"}]}]}]},{"id":"uncertainty-and-decision-use","name":"Uncertainty and decision use","description":"Records what uncertainty means within the scenario and what conclusions an agent may draw from it.","layers":[{"id":"uncertainty-and-likelihood","name":"Uncertainty and likelihood","description":"Separates uncertainty within a scenario from differences between alternative futures.","findings":[{"id":"qualified-uncertainty-claims","name":"Qualified uncertainty claims","description":"Identify what ranges and weights represent and whether a probability interpretation is justified.","questions":[{"text":"Which reported ranges reflect model differences, internal variability, parameter uncertainty or differences between scenarios?","id":"qualified-uncertainty-claims-q01","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"Are probabilities or weights explicitly assigned, and what evidence and conditioning assumptions justify their interpretation?","id":"qualified-uncertainty-claims-q02","kind":"provenance"}]}]},{"id":"fitness-for-application","name":"Fitness for application","description":"Tests compatibility with a specified decision and identifies additional analytical dependencies.","findings":[{"id":"bounded-scenario-use","name":"Bounded scenario use","description":"Determine whether the scenario supports the intended application and what additional evidence it requires.","questions":[{"text":"Does this scenario cover the decision's location, time horizon, climate variables and relevant range of futures?","id":"bounded-scenario-use-q01","kind":"action"},{"text":"What exposure, vulnerability, adaptation or impact-model assumptions must be supplied before deriving consequences for people or assets?","id":"bounded-scenario-use-q02","kind":"boundary"}]}]}]},{"id":"evidence-and-external-alignment","name":"Evidence and external alignment","description":"What the world already says about this thing, gathered so the model can be checked against it.","layers":[{"id":"reported-evidence","name":"Reported evidence","description":"Findings from the breadth pass, kept separate from the structural claims.","findings":[{"id":"evidence-confidence-notes","name":"Check these first","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these check these first hold for the sense of climate change scenario this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-confidence-notes-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-kinds","name":"Kinds and varieties","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these kinds and varieties hold for the sense of climate change scenario this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-kinds-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-identifiers","name":"Identifiers and schemes","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these identifiers and schemes hold for the sense of climate change scenario this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-identifiers-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-real-world-use","name":"Real-world use","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these real-world use hold for the sense of climate change scenario this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-real-world-use-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-measurements","name":"Typical measurements","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these typical measurements hold for the sense of climate change scenario this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-measurements-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-failure-modes-and-hazards","name":"Failure modes and hazards","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these failure modes and hazards hold for the sense of climate change scenario this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-failure-modes-and-hazards-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-regional-variation","name":"Regional variation","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these regional variation hold for the sense of climate change scenario this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-regional-variation-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-neighbours","name":"Neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart hold for the sense of climate change scenario this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-neighbours-q01","kind":"provenance"}]}]}]}]},"agentConduct":{"may":["Explain what climate scenarios are, how they are built and their assumptions, from authoritative sources.","Present projections under several scenarios side by side with their uncertainties."],"mustNot":["Present a scenario as a forecast of what will happen.","Cherry-pick extreme or mild scenarios to mislead.","Mix up scenario families or versions without saying so.","Dismiss climate science or present it as a hoax."],"requiresHuman":["Using scenarios to make planning decisions about infrastructure, insurance or relocation."]},"ethics":{"considerations":["Scenarios shape policy that affects lives and livelihoods across generations.","Misusing them in either direction erodes public trust."],"affectedParties":["Communities exposed to climate risks","Future generations","Planners and policymakers"]},"owners":{"steward":"Nobody owns a scenario family; research consortia publish and maintain them.","roles":[],"masterSystems":[]},"relations":[{"target":"Q1090839","type":"parent","note":"registry parent class"},{"target":"Q30716071","type":"parent","note":"registry parent class"}],"interaction":{"identity":{"applicability":"required","items":["Vercy registry: vr.tr.climate-change-scenario","Wikidata: Q5133509 (https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5133509)"]},"properties":{"applicability":"not-applicable","items":["Scenario specification type: Narrative; socioeconomic pathway; emissions pathway; concentration pathway; forcing pathway; warming-conditioned scenario; explicitly linked combination","Scenario identity and lineage: Provider identifier, version, scenario family, parent scenario and documented variants","Temporal and geographic coverage: Start year, end year, time step, spatial extent and resolution","Reference convention: Variable-specific baseline period, spatial aggregation and anomaly convention","Emissions trajectory: Time series by gas or aerosol species, with mass-per-time units and explicit accounting boundaries","Forcing trajectory: W/m² by year, with forcing definition and reference convention","Temperature trajectory: °C relative to a named baseline, with averaging period, spatial scope and uncertainty","Policy implementation assumptions: Included policies, implementation dates, coverage, compliance and technology assumptions","Probability interpretation: Unassigned; explicitly weighted; conditional probability supplied, each with scope and justification","Assessment readiness: Incomplete; ready for specified use; restricted to stated uses; superseded, with reasons"]},"recognition":{"applicability":"not-applicable","items":[]},"capabilities":{"applicability":"required","items":["Identify the exact scenario version and trace its assumptions to their documented origin.","Compare scenarios after checking reference periods, variables, boundaries and pathway definitions.","Select scenario inputs for a climate or impact analysis when compatibility requirements are satisfied.","Inspect threshold crossing, overshoot and recovery timing where the trajectory supports those calculations.","Stress-test a decision across contrasting futures without inventing likelihoods for them.","Flag unsupported interpretations, missing dependencies or uses beyond the scenario's documented coverage."]},"hazards":{"applicability":"required","items":["Treating a high-emission scenario as most likely, or a low one as assured, distorts planning.","Downscaled local projections carry large uncertainty."]},"interfaces":{"applicability":"required","items":["The mitigation scenario categories in the Sixth Assessment Report, issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, classify emissions pathways by their projected warming outcomes."]},"context":{"applicability":"required","items":["Climate change scenarios are used in climate research and planning to explore future greenhouse gas emissions under explicit assumptions about population, technology, economic activity and policy.","They support comparisons of possible climate outcomes and responses without assigning certainty to any single future."]}},"sources":[{"title":"Wikidata item Q5133509: climate change scenario","url":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5133509","note":"identity and sense of the item"},{"title":"Wikipedia: Climate change scenario","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_scenario","note":"general description of the item"}],"openQuestions":["Does the registry intend this entry to cover socioeconomic and emissions scenarios as well as scenarios expressed directly in climate variables?","Does an existing Vercy world model already own this concept or part of its scope?","Which authoritative scenario specifications should establish the required characteristics for each scenario subtype?","How should scenario revisions, regional derivatives and attached simulation ensembles be linked while preserving one scenario identity?","What evidence should be required before a scenario can be marked ready for a particular decision use or given a probability interpretation?"],"resources":{"spec":"/models/things/publications/thing-q5133509/spec.json"},"provenance":{"origin":"thing registry research (pass 2)","builtFrom":["models/things/publications/thing-q5133509/spec.json"],"providers":["Codex"],"researchStatus":"unreviewed","generatedAt":"2026-09-12T08:44:32Z","builder":"tools/build_cards.py@1.0.0"},"completeness":{"sections":{"classifiers":"filled","whatItIs":"filled","purpose":"filled","distinguishingFeatures":"filled","structure":"filled","agentConduct":"filled","ethics":"filled","owners":"filled","relations":"filled","interaction.identity":"filled","interaction.properties":"not-applicable","interaction.recognition":"not-applicable","interaction.capabilities":"filled","interaction.hazards":"filled","interaction.interfaces":"filled","interaction.context":"filled","sources":"filled"},"notes":{"_gate":"Published through the thing publication gate 1.0 on 2026-10-07T12:16:33+00:00: completeness 1.00; sense: Wikidata description; 2 live sources; review by codex: pass","interaction.properties":"Plane INF: no invented physical properties.","interaction.recognition":"An emissions scenario is an abstract representation with no intrinsic visual appearance that distinguishes it from other scenarios."},"score":1.0}}