{"schema":"https://ver.cy/schemas/card/1.0.0","id":"vr.tr.country-risk","code":"thing-q632029","url":"https://ver.cy/models/thing/q632029/","name":"country risk","alternateNames":["geopolitical risk"],"kind":"thing","status":"published","version":"0.1.0-research.1","language":"en","classifiers":{"family":"Thing Registry","category":"Information and virtual systems","entryKind":"thing","plane":"INF","domain":["INF.KNW"],"industry":[],"navPath":"","tags":[],"facets":{}},"whatItIs":"Country risk is the possibility that political, economic, institutional or social conditions and events in a country adversely affect the value, performance or repayment of exposures associated with that country.","purpose":"Enable an agent to recognise, assess and monitor country-related threats to a specified exposure and identify proportionate responses within stated uncertainty.","scope":{"in":["Definitions of country risk and the exposure, decision and perspective each definition serves","Political, institutional, macroeconomic, financial and security conditions that can transmit losses to an exposure","Country attribution, cross-border dependencies and distinctions between national and subnational conditions","Assessment methods, evidence, scenarios, uncertainty and changes over time","Exposure-specific vulnerability, mitigation options and residual country risk"],"out":["A country's complete geographic, demographic or historical description","Standalone sovereign credit analysis except where sovereign distress transmits to the assessed exposure","Individual counterparty creditworthiness independent of country conditions","Asset pricing, portfolio construction and investment suitability decisions","Detailed legal interpretation or compliance determinations for individual transactions","Operational management of individual disasters, conflicts or business interruptions"],"boundaries":[]},"distinguishingFeatures":["An assessment must connect a country-associated condition to an exposed objective through an explicit adverse-outcome mechanism; a country description alone is insufficient.","Country risk can affect private counterparties even when the sovereign continues servicing its debt, distinguishing it from sovereign default risk.","Political risk concerns political or governmental mechanisms; a country-risk framework may also include economic, financial and security mechanisms and must declare its coverage.","A country rating is an assessment output under a particular method, rather than the risk itself; identical ratings need not imply identical vulnerabilities.","The same country conditions can produce different risks for different activities, currencies, locations and horizons, so a country label alone does not establish exposure-level risk."],"structure":{"bundles":[{"id":"definition-and-assessment-boundary","name":"Definition and assessment boundary","description":"Establishes what country risk means in this assessment and which decision it supports.","layers":[{"id":"framework-and-perspective","name":"Framework and perspective","description":"Records the adopted definition and competing interpretations relevant to the decision.","findings":[{"id":"country-risk-definition","name":"Country-risk definition","description":"Identify whose definition is used, its included mechanisms and the alternatives it excludes.","questions":[{"text":"Does the adopted definition concern cross-border repayment, investment loss, operating disruption or a broader set of adverse outcomes?","id":"country-risk-definition-q01","kind":"definition"},{"text":"Which institution, author or assessment owner supplies this definition, and where is its scope documented?","id":"country-risk-definition-q02","kind":"provenance"},{"text":"How does this framework distinguish country risk from political risk, sovereign risk and general market risk?","id":"country-risk-definition-q03","kind":"boundary"}]}]},{"id":"exposure-and-jurisdiction","name":"Exposure and jurisdiction","description":"Connects the assessment to a concrete objective and the countries capable of affecting it.","findings":[{"id":"country-exposure-nexus","name":"Country-exposure nexus","description":"Record why a jurisdiction matters to this exposure, including indirect dependencies and relevant local variation.","questions":[{"text":"Which asset, payment, operation or objective is exposed, through which country connection, and over what horizon?","id":"country-exposure-nexus-q01","kind":"definition"},{"text":"Would attribution by headquarters or obligor residence miss operating locations, payment routes or critical suppliers in other countries?","id":"country-exposure-nexus-q02","kind":"boundary"},{"text":"Which subnational differences materially limit the usefulness of a national assessment?","id":"country-exposure-nexus-q03","kind":"boundary"}]}]}]},{"id":"country-conditions-and-disruption","name":"Country conditions and disruption","description":"Identifies country-level conditions and events capable of initiating adverse outcomes.","layers":[{"id":"political-and-institutional-conditions","name":"Political and institutional conditions","description":"Examines authority, policy implementation and protection or disruption of relevant rights.","findings":[{"id":"government-and-institutional-disruption","name":"Government and institutional disruption","description":"Record exposure-relevant possibilities such as contract interference, expropriation, abrupt policy change or inconsistent enforcement.","questions":[{"text":"Which governmental or institutional action could impair this exposure, and which authority could implement it?","id":"government-and-institutional-disruption-q01","kind":"definition"},{"text":"What observed actions, legal instruments or documented enforcement patterns support the proposed mechanism?","id":"government-and-institutional-disruption-q02","kind":"provenance"}]}]},{"id":"economic-and-physical-conditions","name":"Economic and physical conditions","description":"Examines macroeconomic stress and security or infrastructure disruptions within the declared scope.","findings":[{"id":"country-stress-drivers","name":"Country stress drivers","description":"Identify vulnerabilities that could affect payments, demand, production or access, without treating indicators as deterministic predictions.","questions":[{"text":"Which external-financing, fiscal, banking, inflation or currency conditions could initiate an adverse scenario for this exposure?","id":"country-stress-drivers-q01","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"Are conflict, infrastructure failure or natural hazards included here, and what makes their country-level treatment useful?","id":"country-stress-drivers-q02","kind":"boundary"},{"text":"Which evidence distinguishes an existing disruption from a vulnerability that has not yet materialised?","id":"country-stress-drivers-q03","kind":"provenance"}]}]}]},{"id":"transmission-and-exposure-sensitivity","name":"Transmission and exposure sensitivity","description":"Explains how country conditions reach the assessed objective and why impacts differ between exposures.","layers":[{"id":"payment-and-value-transmission","name":"Payment and value transmission","description":"Separates mechanisms affecting ability to pay, conversion, transfer and economic value.","findings":[{"id":"cross-border-payment-impairment","name":"Cross-border payment impairment","description":"Distinguish counterparty insolvency, sovereign distress, currency depreciation, inconvertibility and transfer restrictions.","questions":[{"text":"Could a solvent counterparty pay locally but fail to convert or remit funds, and what would cause that restriction?","id":"cross-border-payment-impairment-q01","kind":"boundary"},{"text":"Which payment currencies, settlement routes and cash-flow mismatches determine the size and timing of the impact?","id":"cross-border-payment-impairment-q02","kind":"measurement"}]}]},{"id":"operating-and-network-transmission","name":"Operating and network transmission","description":"Traces direct interruption and propagation through suppliers, customers and shared infrastructure.","findings":[{"id":"dependency-and-concentration-effects","name":"Dependency and concentration effects","description":"Record country dependencies that amplify losses or cause apparently separate exposures to fail together.","questions":[{"text":"Which facilities, suppliers, corridors or services could transmit a country disruption to this activity?","id":"dependency-and-concentration-effects-q01","kind":"definition"},{"text":"What share of the objective depends on these connections, and how long would substitution take?","id":"dependency-and-concentration-effects-q02","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"Which exposures share the same country mechanism despite having different counterparties or registered domiciles?","id":"dependency-and-concentration-effects-q03","kind":"boundary"}]}]}]},{"id":"evidence-and-assessment-method","name":"Evidence and assessment method","description":"Makes ratings, indicators and scenarios interpretable and challengeable.","layers":[{"id":"indicators-and-rating-construction","name":"Indicators and rating construction","description":"Documents evidence selection and the method that converts observations into an assessment.","findings":[{"id":"rating-interpretability","name":"Rating interpretability","description":"Record scale meaning, coverage, aggregation rules and judgement adjustments for each assessment output.","questions":[{"text":"What does the grade or score measure, and is it ordinal, a calibrated probability or another type of output?","id":"rating-interpretability-q01","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"Which sources, observation dates, weights and expert overrides produced the result?","id":"rating-interpretability-q02","kind":"provenance"},{"text":"Which differences in scope or method prevent direct comparison with another provider's country rating?","id":"rating-interpretability-q03","kind":"boundary"}]}]},{"id":"scenarios-and-uncertainty","name":"Scenarios and uncertainty","description":"Tests plausible adverse pathways while distinguishing evidence gaps from estimated risk.","findings":[{"id":"scenario-support-and-limits","name":"Scenario support and limits","description":"Record scenario assumptions, conditional consequences and the basis for any likelihood estimate.","questions":[{"text":"What sequence of country events would produce the stated impact, and which assumptions are essential to that sequence?","id":"scenario-support-and-limits-q01","kind":"definition"},{"text":"What supports the likelihood and impact estimates, and where are ranges or unknowns more defensible than point estimates?","id":"scenario-support-and-limits-q02","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"How are interacting shocks and overlapping risk components handled to avoid double-counting losses?","id":"scenario-support-and-limits-q03","kind":"measurement"}]}]}]},{"id":"response-and-monitoring","name":"Response and monitoring","description":"Connects the assessment to feasible responses and evidence-driven review.","layers":[{"id":"mitigation-and-residual-risk","name":"Mitigation and residual risk","description":"Examines the effectiveness and dependencies of responses for the specific exposure.","findings":[{"id":"mechanism-matched-response","name":"Mechanism-matched response","description":"Evaluate responses such as exposure reduction, diversification, payment restructuring, insurance or contingency arrangements against named scenarios.","questions":[{"text":"Which feasible response reduces the identified loss pathway, and what cost, delay or new dependency does it introduce?","id":"mechanism-matched-response-q01","kind":"action"},{"text":"Could exclusions, waiting periods, access restrictions or simultaneous guarantor distress prevent the response from working?","id":"mechanism-matched-response-q02","kind":"boundary"},{"text":"What exposure and uncertainty remain after the response under the same scenario and horizon?","id":"mechanism-matched-response-q03","kind":"measurement"}]}]},{"id":"signals-and-review-triggers","name":"Signals and review triggers","description":"Defines observable changes that warrant reassessment or an authorised response.","findings":[{"id":"country-risk-review","name":"Country-risk review","description":"Tie monitoring to transmission mechanisms, assessment freshness and decision thresholds.","questions":[{"text":"Which observable changes, such as remittance delays, capital-control measures or route closures, would challenge the current assessment?","id":"country-risk-review-q01","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"Who reviews a breached trigger, by when, and which actions fall within the agent's authority?","id":"country-risk-review-q02","kind":"action"},{"text":"When must the assessment be refreshed even if no trigger has been observed?","id":"country-risk-review-q03","kind":"action"}]}]}]},{"id":"evidence-and-external-alignment","name":"Evidence and external alignment","description":"What the world already says about this thing, gathered so the model can be checked against it.","layers":[{"id":"reported-evidence","name":"Reported evidence","description":"Findings from the breadth pass, kept separate from the structural claims.","findings":[{"id":"evidence-confidence-notes","name":"Check these first","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these check these first hold for the sense of country risk this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-confidence-notes-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-kinds","name":"Kinds and varieties","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these kinds and varieties hold for the sense of country risk this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-kinds-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-identifiers","name":"Identifiers and schemes","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these identifiers and schemes hold for the sense of country risk this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-identifiers-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-standards-and-regulation","name":"Standards and regulation","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these standards and regulation hold for the sense of country risk this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-standards-and-regulation-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-real-world-use","name":"Real-world use","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these real-world use hold for the sense of country risk this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-real-world-use-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-measurements","name":"Typical measurements","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these typical measurements hold for the sense of country risk this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-measurements-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-failure-modes-and-hazards","name":"Failure modes and hazards","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these failure modes and hazards hold for the sense of country risk this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-failure-modes-and-hazards-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-regional-variation","name":"Regional variation","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these regional variation hold for the sense of country risk this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-regional-variation-q01","kind":"provenance"}]},{"id":"evidence-neighbours","name":"Neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart","description":"Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.","questions":[{"text":"Which of these neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart hold for the sense of country risk this model covers, and on what evidence?","id":"evidence-neighbours-q01","kind":"provenance"}]}]}]}]},"agentConduct":{"may":["Report country risk ratings and their sources, with dates and methods.","Explain the political, economic and transfer factors that make up country risk."],"mustNot":["Present a rating or opinion as fact or as a forecast of certain default.","Give personalised investment advice based on country risk.","Use stereotypes about a nation's people as a risk factor.","Spread unverified reports of crisis that could move markets."],"requiresHuman":["Decisions to lend, invest or withdraw exposure based on country risk."]},"ethics":{"considerations":["Ratings and risk labels can raise borrowing costs and harm the people of a country.","Assessments can embed bias against poorer or politically disfavoured countries."],"affectedParties":["People of the assessed country","Investors and lenders","Exporters"]},"owners":{"steward":"Nobody owns it; each lender, insurer or rating body answers for its own assessment.","roles":[],"masterSystems":[]},"relations":[{"target":"Q7885121","type":"parent","note":"registry parent class"}],"interaction":{"identity":{"applicability":"required","items":["Vercy registry: vr.tr.country-risk","Wikidata: Q632029 (https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q632029)"]},"properties":{"applicability":"not-applicable","items":["Assessment perspective: Lender, investor, exporter, operator, insurer, public authority or another explicitly named perspective","Country attribution: Named jurisdiction linked through operations, obligor residence, payment system, governing authority, supply dependency or another stated connection","Exposure at risk: Amount and currency, revenue share, capacity share, people exposed or another objective-specific quantity","Assessment horizon: Explicit start and end dates or duration in months or years","Risk mechanism: Transfer restriction, currency inconvertibility, expropriation, regulatory disruption, macroeconomic stress, conflict, infrastructure interruption or another specified mechanism","Assessment result: Named framework's ordinal grade or qualitative judgement, including scale definition and direction","Scenario likelihood: Probability or probability range over a stated horizon where justified; otherwise an explicitly defined qualitative likelihood or unknown","Conditional impact: Loss amount and currency, percentage impairment, interruption days or another consequence measure conditional on a named scenario","Evidence confidence: Supported, contested, weakly supported or unassessed, with reasons and an as-of date","Mitigation dependency: Link to a control, contract, insurer, guarantor, alternate route or other response and its failure conditions"]},"recognition":{"applicability":"not-applicable","items":[]},"capabilities":{"applicability":"required","items":["Frame a country-risk assessment around an identified exposure, objective and horizon.","Trace country conditions through specific mechanisms to potential losses or interruptions.","Compare assessments after checking their definitions, scales, coverage and dates.","Evaluate scenarios and identify exposure concentrations or shared dependencies.","Monitor indicators against review triggers and revise assessments when evidence changes.","Compare feasible responses and explain residual risks and unresolved assumptions."]},"hazards":{"applicability":"required","items":["Sudden capital controls or default can freeze payments and assets.","Herd reactions to downgrades can deepen a crisis."]},"interfaces":{"applicability":"required","items":["Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which covers country and transfer risk."]},"context":{"applicability":"required","items":["Country risk is assessed when making cross-border loans, investments, trade commitments or other exposures affected by conditions in a particular country.","Lenders, investors and public institutions use it to inform exposure limits, pricing, diversification and monitoring of political and economic changes."]}},"sources":[{"title":"Wikidata item Q632029: country risk","url":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q632029","note":"identity and sense of the item"},{"title":"Wikipedia: Country risk","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Country_risk","note":"general description of the item"}],"openQuestions":["Which reference definitions and assessment traditions should anchor this registry entry, and how should their disagreements over the breadth of country risk be represented?","Does an existing Vercy world model already own country risk or a substantively equivalent concept, requiring this entry to link to that publication?","Where should the boundary with political risk, sovereign risk and systemic risk sit when the same event activates several mechanisms?","Which country-risk measures have evidence of predictive validity for particular exposure types and horizons, and which comparisons between providers are defensible?","How should country attribution and assessment resolution handle disputed jurisdictions, substantial subnational variation and exposures dependent on several countries?"],"resources":{"spec":"/models/things/publications/thing-q632029/spec.json"},"provenance":{"origin":"thing registry research (pass 2)","builtFrom":["models/things/publications/thing-q632029/spec.json"],"providers":["Codex"],"researchStatus":"unreviewed","generatedAt":"2026-09-12T08:52:46Z","builder":"tools/build_cards.py@1.0.0"},"completeness":{"sections":{"classifiers":"filled","whatItIs":"filled","purpose":"filled","distinguishingFeatures":"filled","structure":"filled","agentConduct":"filled","ethics":"filled","owners":"filled","relations":"filled","interaction.identity":"filled","interaction.properties":"not-applicable","interaction.recognition":"not-applicable","interaction.capabilities":"filled","interaction.hazards":"filled","interaction.interfaces":"filled","interaction.context":"filled","sources":"filled"},"notes":{"_gate":"Published through the thing publication gate 1.0 on 2026-10-07T10:10:32+00:00: completeness 1.00; sense: Wikidata description; 2 live sources; review by codex: pass","interaction.properties":"Plane INF: no invented physical properties.","interaction.recognition":"Country risk is an abstract assessment of possible adverse outcomes and has no distinguishing visual appearance."},"score":1.0}}