{"schema":"https://ver.cy/schemas/card/1.0.0","id":"vr.tr.probability","code":"thing-q9492","url":"https://ver.cy/models/thing/q9492/","name":"probability","alternateNames":["availability","loss probability","error probability","joint probability","topic probability","geometric probability","probability of acceptance","negative probability","confidence level","tail probability","Probability of precipitation","sticking probability"],"kind":"thing","status":"published","version":"0.2.0-wave.1","language":"en","classifiers":{"family":"Thing Registry","category":"Cross-cutting context","entryKind":"thing","plane":"XCT","domain":["XCT.QLT"],"industry":[],"navPath":"","tags":[],"facets":{}},"whatItIs":"A numerical measure between 0 and 1 of how likely an event is, formalised by Kolmogorov axioms and interpreted in frequentist, Bayesian and other ways; related notions include joint, conditional and error probabilities.","purpose":"Let an agent handle probability by definition, interpretation, calculation and communication of risk, avoiding common fallacies.","scope":{"in":[],"out":[],"boundaries":[]},"distinguishingFeatures":["Measure of likelihood","Axiomatic foundation","Several interpretations","Easily misunderstood"],"structure":{"bundles":[{"id":"calculation","name":"Calculation","description":"Computing.","layers":[{"id":"event","name":"Event","description":"Probability of event.","findings":[{"id":"event-finding","name":"Event","description":"Event probability.","questions":[{"text":"What is the probability of this event?","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"Which assumptions are used?","kind":"boundary"}]}]},{"id":"conditional","name":"Conditional","description":"Bayes.","findings":[{"id":"conditional-finding","name":"Conditional","description":"Conditional probability.","questions":[{"text":"What is the probability given this evidence?","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"Is the base rate included?","kind":"boundary"}]}]}]},{"id":"interpretation","name":"Interpretation","description":"Meaning.","layers":[{"id":"meaning","name":"Meaning","description":"Frequentist or Bayesian.","findings":[{"id":"meaning-finding","name":"Meaning","description":"Interpretation.","questions":[{"text":"Is the probability a long-run frequency or a degree of belief?","kind":"definition"},{"text":"Does it matter here?","kind":"boundary"}]}]},{"id":"model","name":"Model","description":"Assumptions.","findings":[{"id":"model-finding","name":"Model","description":"Model assumptions.","questions":[{"text":"Which model generates the probability?","kind":"provenance"},{"text":"How sensitive is it to assumptions?","kind":"boundary"}]}]}]},{"id":"communication","name":"Communication","description":"Risk.","layers":[{"id":"format","name":"Format","description":"Natural frequencies.","findings":[{"id":"format-finding","name":"Format","description":"Risk format.","questions":[{"text":"Would natural frequencies such as 1 in 100 be clearer?","kind":"action"},{"text":"Is absolute risk given alongside relative risk?","kind":"boundary"}]}]},{"id":"fallacies","name":"Fallacies","description":"Errors.","findings":[{"id":"fallacies-finding","name":"Fallacies","description":"Fallacies.","questions":[{"text":"Is a common fallacy such as the gambler fallacy involved?","kind":"boundary"},{"text":"How can it be corrected?","kind":"action"}]}]}]},{"id":"applications","name":"Applications","description":"Uses.","layers":[{"id":"medical","name":"Medical","description":"Tests.","findings":[{"id":"medical-finding","name":"Medical","description":"Medical tests.","questions":[{"text":"What is the probability of disease given a positive test, in general terms?","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"Should results be discussed with a clinician?","kind":"action"}]}]},{"id":"gambling","name":"Gambling","description":"Odds.","findings":[{"id":"gambling-finding","name":"Gambling","description":"Gambling odds.","questions":[{"text":"What are the true odds compared with offered odds?","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"Where can someone get help with problem gambling?","kind":"action"}]}]}]}]},"agentConduct":{"may":["Compute and explain probabilities, stating assumptions and the interpretation used.","Communicate risk with absolute and relative figures side by side."],"mustNot":["Present a probability as a certainty or a rare event as impossible.","Use relative risk alone to exaggerate a benefit or harm.","Misstate the probability of a person's guilt from match evidence.","Help design games or bets that mislead players about their odds."],"requiresHuman":["Using probabilistic scores in decisions about a person, such as credit, bail or diagnosis."]},"ethics":{"considerations":["Misread probabilities have led to wrongful convictions and poor medical choices.","Risk scores applied to people can encode bias."],"affectedParties":["People judged by risk scores","Patients and juries"]},"owners":{"steward":"Nobody: a mathematical concept held in common.","roles":[],"masterSystems":[]},"relations":[{"target":"Q126818","type":"parent","note":"registry parent class"},{"target":"Q21170479","type":"parent","note":"registry parent class"},{"target":"Q246672","type":"parent","note":"registry parent class"},{"target":"mathematical object and dimensionless quantity","type":"related","note":"category"},{"target":"probability theory and statistics","type":"related","note":"fields"},{"target":"odds and risk","type":"related","note":"expressions"},{"target":"decision making","type":"related","note":"application"}],"interaction":{"identity":{"applicability":"required","items":["Vercy registry: vr.tr.probability","Wikidata: Q9492 (https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9492)"]},"properties":{"applicability":"not-applicable","items":[]},"recognition":{"applicability":"optional","items":["Values from 0 to 1 or 0 to 100 percent","Notation P(A)","Odds are a related but different 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item"}],"openQuestions":["Should interpretations be separate entries?","How should risk communication guidance be linked?","How should odds be related?"],"resources":{"spec":"/models/things/publications/thing-q9492/spec.json"},"provenance":{"origin":"thing registry research (pass 2)","builtFrom":["models/things/publications/thing-q9492/spec.json"],"providers":["Claude"],"researchStatus":"unreviewed","generatedAt":"2026-09-11T10:13:09Z","builder":"tools/build_cards.py@1.0.0"},"completeness":{"sections":{"classifiers":"filled","whatItIs":"filled","purpose":"filled","distinguishingFeatures":"filled","structure":"filled","agentConduct":"filled","ethics":"filled","owners":"filled","relations":"filled","interaction.identity":"filled","interaction.properties":"not-applicable","interaction.recognition":"filled","interaction.capabilities":"filled","interaction.hazards":"filled","interaction.interfaces":"filled","interaction.context":"filled","sources":"filled"},"notes":{"_gate":"Published through the thing publication gate 1.0 on 2026-10-06T19:52:03+00:00: completeness 1.00; sense: Wikidata description; 2 live sources; review by codex: pass","interaction.properties":"Plane XCT: no invented physical properties."},"score":1.0}}