{"schema":"https://ver.cy/schemas/card/1.0.0","id":"vr.wm-act-016","code":"wm-act-016-observed-phenomenon","url":"https://ver.cy/models/wm-act-016-observed-phenomenon/","name":"Observed Phenomenon","alternateNames":["X2"],"kind":"world-model","status":"published","version":"0.1.0","language":"en","classifiers":{"family":"World Models","category":"Activities and processes","entryKind":"pattern","plane":"","domain":["ACT.EVT.OBS"],"industry":["Cross-industry"],"navPath":"NAV.ACT.EVT.OBS","tags":["observed","phenomenon","act.evt.obs"],"facets":{}},"whatItIs":"One stewarded pattern description, including a candidate recurrence hypothesis, its observation-series references and interpretation records. The description is not the physical or social process itself. Individual measurements, occurrences, datasets and official statistical products retain separate masters. This is a proposed research structure, not an implemented detector or proof of recurrence.","purpose":"Describe a recurring natural or social pattern through a versioned definition, bounded applicability and evidence-qualified interpretations.","scope":{"in":["Pattern identity, classification, recognition criteria and limits of applicability","Evidence selection, sampling coverage, method continuity and uncertainty statements attached to the pattern","Qualified recurrence, trend and anomaly interpretations; review, revision and release decisions for local descriptions"],"out":["Observation acquisition, sensor control, raw measurement and dataset master lifecycles","Executing statistical estimators, causal inference engines, forecasts, emergency warnings or interventions","Official-statistics production authority, occurrence response, situation management and generic audit-trail execution","Universal thresholds, compulsory numerical units or geographical extent for every social pattern"],"boundaries":[{"neighbor":"WM-MAT-008 Observation / Measurement Record","distinction":"References evidence records and their revisions; does not own capture, calibration execution or result correction. A pattern may have many evidential series and measures."},{"neighbor":"WM-ACT-015 Occurrence / Event","distinction":"A dated happening can support or instantiate a pattern but does not itself establish recurrence. Event identity and lifecycle remain external."},{"neighbor":"WM-ACT-017 Situation","distinction":"A condition holding over an interval is separate from a recurring-pattern description. No automatic conversion of a detected departure into an active situation."},{"neighbor":"WM-DAT-002 Official Statistics","distinction":"A released indicator or official statistical series is referenced as a product. This pattern catalogue cannot confer official status or duplicate statistical production."},{"neighbor":"Legacy X2 and unreviewed card supplement","distinction":"Retain the recurring-pattern interpretation. Qualify single-unit, territory, one-series membership, one-method and anomaly-to-trend cardinalities as profile choices. No inherited conformance or open-release claim."}]},"distinguishingFeatures":["Unlike WM-MAT-008 Observation / Measurement Record: References evidence records and their revisions; does not own capture, calibration execution or result correction. A pattern may have many evidential series and measures.","Unlike WM-ACT-015 Occurrence / Event: A dated happening can support or instantiate a pattern but does not itself establish recurrence. Event identity and lifecycle remain external.","Unlike WM-ACT-017 Situation: A condition holding over an interval is separate from a recurring-pattern description. No automatic conversion of a detected departure into an active situation.","Unlike WM-DAT-002 Official Statistics: A released indicator or official statistical series is referenced as a product. This pattern catalogue cannot confer official status or duplicate statistical production.","Unlike Legacy X2 and unreviewed card supplement: Retain the recurring-pattern interpretation. Qualify single-unit, territory, one-series membership, one-method and anomaly-to-trend cardinalities as profile choices. No inherited conformance or open-release claim."],"structure":{"bundles":[{"id":"bundle-identity","name":"Pattern definition","description":"Identify the pattern independently of any particular observation set.","layers":[{"id":"layer-definition","name":"Definition and recognition","description":"Version a falsifiable pattern description with explicit evidence status; a catalogue entry can be a candidate without verified recurrence.","findings":[{"id":"finding-definition","name":"Definition and recognition","description":"Version a falsifiable pattern description with explicit evidence status; a catalogue entry can be a candidate without verified recurrence.","questions":[{"text":"Which master identifier distinguishes this pattern from its aliases and definition revisions?","id":"finding-definition-q01","kind":"identity"},{"text":"What repeatable configuration or recurrence hypothesis does the definition assert?","id":"finding-definition-q02","kind":"definition"},{"text":"Which classification and vocabulary version describe the pattern without forcing it to be numerical?","id":"finding-definition-q03","kind":"classification"},{"text":"Is recurrence proposed, supported, disputed or withdrawn under the stated review criteria?","id":"finding-definition-q04","kind":"state"}]}]},{"id":"layer-applicability","name":"Applicability and extent","description":"Describe the population, context and spatial support to which the claim applies; sampled coverage is not automatically the whole extent.","findings":[{"id":"finding-applicability","name":"Applicability and extent","description":"Describe the population, context and spatial support to which the claim applies; sampled coverage is not automatically the whole extent.","questions":[{"text":"Which spatial, population or network extent bounds the pattern claim?","id":"finding-applicability-q01","kind":"spatial"},{"text":"Which conditions make the pattern definition applicable or inapplicable?","id":"finding-applicability-q02","kind":"constraint"},{"text":"During which period is this definition and its extent intended to apply?","id":"finding-applicability-q03","kind":"temporal"},{"text":"Which separately mastered occurrences or situations are linked as examples or counterexamples?","id":"finding-applicability-q04","kind":"relationship"}]}]}]},{"id":"bundle-evidence","name":"Evidence context","description":"Connect the claim to attributable evidence while retaining external record ownership.","layers":[{"id":"layer-selection","name":"Series and evidence selection","description":"Keep a reproducible index of supporting and contrary evidence; dataset membership depends on the selected exchange profile.","findings":[{"id":"finding-selection","name":"Series and evidence selection","description":"Keep a reproducible index of supporting and contrary evidence; dataset membership depends on the selected exchange profile.","questions":[{"text":"Which series or observation revisions support or challenge this pattern version?","id":"finding-selection-q01","kind":"composition"},{"text":"What inclusion and exclusion rules select the evidence used for this interpretation?","id":"finding-selection-q02","kind":"process"},{"text":"Who assembled this evidence selection and from which source versions?","id":"finding-selection-q03","kind":"provenance"},{"text":"Which profile governs series membership when the same evidence is reused in several analyses?","id":"finding-selection-q04","kind":"interoperability"}]}]},{"id":"layer-sampling","name":"Coverage and missing evidence","description":"Record what was observed and what remains unobserved without equating a missing result with absence of the phenomenon.","findings":[{"id":"finding-sampling","name":"Coverage and missing evidence","description":"Record what was observed and what remains unobserved without equating a missing result with absence of the phenomenon.","questions":[{"text":"What sampling design and cadence link the observed subset to the target population?","id":"finding-sampling-q01","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"Where are coverage gaps, nonresponse or detection limits material to recognition?","id":"finding-sampling-q02","kind":"quality"},{"text":"How are zero, missing, below-detection, suppressed and not-applicable values distinguished?","id":"finding-sampling-q03","kind":"exception"},{"text":"Which evidence justifies extrapolation beyond the sampled support?","id":"finding-sampling-q04","kind":"evidence"}]}]}]},{"id":"bundle-measurement","name":"Method and value interpretation","description":"Preserve the meaning and limitations of referenced observations.","layers":[{"id":"layer-method","name":"Procedure continuity","description":"Reference actual procedure versions and comparability decisions; changing a method need not erase a series or imply a new phenomenon.","findings":[{"id":"finding-method","name":"Procedure continuity","description":"Reference actual procedure versions and comparability decisions; changing a method need not erase a series or imply a new phenomenon.","questions":[{"text":"Which procedure and instrument or observer references produced each evidence segment?","id":"finding-method-q01","kind":"provenance"},{"text":"What method, instrument, classification or population changes create a potential series break?","id":"finding-method-q02","kind":"event"},{"text":"What bridge study or assessment supports comparison across a declared break?","id":"finding-method-q03","kind":"validation"},{"text":"Who may accept a method-comparability statement for this pattern interpretation?","id":"finding-method-q04","kind":"authority"}]}]},{"id":"layer-values","name":"Measure meaning and uncertainty","description":"Attach units and uncertainty to specific measures and interpretations, retaining categorical evidence where applicable.","findings":[{"id":"finding-values","name":"Measure meaning and uncertainty","description":"Attach units and uncertainty to specific measures and interpretations, retaining categorical evidence where applicable.","questions":[{"text":"Which measurands or categories, units and scales are used in each series?","id":"finding-values-q01","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"What uncertainty components and evaluation method accompany a quantitative estimate?","id":"finding-values-q02","kind":"quality"},{"text":"Which transformations or normalizations make the selected measures comparable?","id":"finding-values-q03","kind":"constraint"},{"text":"How are measurement uncertainty, classification ambiguity and pattern confidence kept distinct?","id":"finding-values-q04","kind":"validation"}]}]}]},{"id":"bundle-time","name":"Temporal interpretation","description":"Separate applicability time, evidence time and analytical windows.","layers":[{"id":"layer-clocks","name":"Time semantics","description":"Preserve the time a result applies to separately from result production, ingestion and catalogue review.","findings":[{"id":"finding-clocks","name":"Time semantics","description":"Preserve the time a result applies to separately from result production, ingestion and catalogue review.","questions":[{"text":"Which phenomenon-time instant or interval applies to each selected evidence item?","id":"finding-clocks-q01","kind":"temporal"},{"text":"When were results produced, ingested and last reviewed for this pattern record?","id":"finding-clocks-q02","kind":"provenance"},{"text":"How are time zones, clock uncertainty and coarse periods represented without invented precision?","id":"finding-clocks-q03","kind":"constraint"},{"text":"How do delayed arrivals and revised historical results affect the interpretation cutoff?","id":"finding-clocks-q04","kind":"exception"}]}]},{"id":"layer-recurrence","name":"Recurrence and baseline","description":"Treat recurrence as an evaluated interpretation with a declared window, rather than an automatic consequence of repeated records.","findings":[{"id":"finding-recurrence","name":"Recurrence and baseline","description":"Treat recurrence as an evaluated interpretation with a declared window, rather than an automatic consequence of repeated records.","questions":[{"text":"What temporal or contextual recurrence criterion makes this a pattern claim?","id":"finding-recurrence-q01","kind":"definition"},{"text":"Which baseline version and reference period support comparison?","id":"finding-recurrence-q02","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"How were trend, seasonality and dependence considered in the recurrence assessment?","id":"finding-recurrence-q03","kind":"quality"},{"text":"What evidence would trigger reclassification, splitting or rejection of this recurrence claim?","id":"finding-recurrence-q04","kind":"decision"}]}]}]},{"id":"bundle-analysis","name":"Qualified interpretations","description":"Record analytical claims and limitations without owning analytical execution.","layers":[{"id":"layer-trend","name":"Trend and interpretation","description":"Reference a reproducible analytical result and its scope; association does not establish a causal explanation.","findings":[{"id":"finding-trend","name":"Trend and interpretation","description":"Reference a reproducible analytical result and its scope; association does not establish a causal explanation.","questions":[{"text":"What trend direction or rate is asserted for which measure and interval?","id":"finding-trend-q01","kind":"measurement"},{"text":"Which input snapshot, analysis method and parameters produced this trend statement?","id":"finding-trend-q02","kind":"provenance"},{"text":"Which assumptions and sensitivity checks limit confidence in the trend?","id":"finding-trend-q03","kind":"quality"},{"text":"Is the statement descriptive, predictive or causal, and what evidence supports that classification?","id":"finding-trend-q04","kind":"constraint"}]}]},{"id":"layer-anomaly","name":"Anomaly interpretation","description":"A flagged departure requires a stated baseline and investigation; it need not refer to a trend or imply a hazardous occurrence.","findings":[{"id":"finding-anomaly","name":"Anomaly interpretation","description":"A flagged departure requires a stated baseline and investigation; it need not refer to a trend or imply a hazardous occurrence.","questions":[{"text":"Which observation or interval departs from which baseline and comparison rule?","id":"finding-anomaly-q01","kind":"evidence"},{"text":"What checks distinguish a meaningful departure from error, method change or model mismatch?","id":"finding-anomaly-q02","kind":"validation"},{"text":"How are false positives, missed detections and threshold changes documented?","id":"finding-anomaly-q03","kind":"exception"},{"text":"What local review disposition follows a flag without automatically issuing a warning or deleting data?","id":"finding-anomaly-q04","kind":"process"}]}]}]},{"id":"bundle-stewardship","name":"Review and controlled reuse","description":"Govern the local description and its projections while preserving separate evidence masters.","layers":[{"id":"layer-revision","name":"Stewardship and lifecycle","description":"Manage local definition and interpretation revisions with attribution and explicit continuity decisions.","findings":[{"id":"finding-revision","name":"Stewardship and lifecycle","description":"Manage local definition and interpretation revisions with attribution and explicit continuity decisions.","questions":[{"text":"Which observing steward is accountable for this pattern definition and evidence index?","id":"finding-revision-q01","kind":"ownership"},{"text":"What local states and review conditions govern proposal, review, supersession and retirement?","id":"finding-revision-q02","kind":"lifecycle"},{"text":"When does a changed definition require a revision, a new pattern identifier or an explicit split?","id":"finding-revision-q03","kind":"identity"},{"text":"Which retention and disposal policy governs local records and referenced evidence?","id":"finding-revision-q04","kind":"retention"}]}]},{"id":"layer-reuse","name":"Access and exchange","description":"Release only authorized projections with adequate context; conceptual alignments do not establish conformance.","findings":[{"id":"finding-reuse","name":"Access and exchange","description":"Release only authorized projections with adequate context; conceptual alignments do not establish conformance.","questions":[{"text":"Who can access raw evidence links, restricted methods and public interpretation views?","id":"finding-reuse-q01","kind":"access"},{"text":"Which spatial or population detail must be suppressed or generalized before a social-pattern view is released?","id":"finding-reuse-q02","kind":"privacy"},{"text":"What mapping preserves units, breaks, provenance and provisional status in each exchange profile?","id":"finding-reuse-q03","kind":"interoperability"},{"text":"What approval and licensing evidence permits release of this interpretation revision?","id":"finding-reuse-q04","kind":"authority"}]}]}]}]},"agentConduct":{"may":["Register pattern proposal: Create a local candidate description without claiming that recurrence is established. Proposed local operation, not implemented.","Link evidence snapshot: Attach a pinned evidence selection and its contrary material to a pattern revision. Proposed local operation, not implemented.","Record comparability decision: Record an authorized assessment of a potential evidence break. Proposed local operation, not implemented.","Attach analytical interpretation: Record a trend or recurrence claim from an externally executed analysis. Proposed local operation, not implemented.","Record anomaly review: Record the local disposition of a departure after evidence-qualified review. Proposed local operation, not implemented.","Revise or retire pattern description: Apply an authorized local revision, supersession or retirement while preserving resolvable continuity. Proposed local operation, not implemented."],"mustNot":["Append attributable revisions with expected-version checks; updating local interpretations never rewrites external measurement or dataset masters.","Deny ungranted access; expose only a purpose-authorized projection."],"requiresHuman":[]},"ethics":{"considerations":["Local design policies require adopting-Dimension authorization and domain review; no universal scientific, privacy or legal compliance claim."],"affectedParties":[]},"owners":{"steward":"An observing steward role with accountable authority and purpose","roles":[{"name":"Observing steward","responsibilities":["Account for definition, scope and continuity decisions."]},{"name":"Evidence custodian","responsibilities":["Resolve source identities, versions and permitted evidence access."]},{"name":"Scientific reviewer","responsibilities":["Assess recognition criteria, comparability and interpretation limits."]},{"name":"Release reviewer","responsibilities":["Approve licensed and disclosure-safe views for a defined purpose."]},{"name":"Local maintainer","responsibilities":["Apply authorized revisions and report unresolved references without changing evidence masters."]}],"masterSystems":[]},"relations":[{"target":"WM-MAT-008","type":"references","note":"Candidate neighbor binding for measurement and observation masters; keep capture and correction outside this pattern."},{"target":"WM-ACT-015","type":"references","note":"Candidate link to discrete instances or counterexamples; event lifecycle remains external."},{"target":"WM-ACT-017","type":"references","note":"Candidate link to a persistent manifestation; no ownership of situation response."},{"target":"WM-DAT-002","type":"references","note":"Candidate link to official series or indicator products; no implied official status."},{"target":"https://www.w3.org/ns/sosa/","type":"aligned","note":"Conceptual observation, property, procedure and time mapping; pattern is not equivalent to sosa:Observation."},{"target":"https://www.w3.org/ns/prov#","type":"aligned","note":"Conceptual attribution and revision mapping; generic audit machinery is delegated."},{"target":"https://www.w3.org/TR/2014/REC-vocab-data-cube-20140116/","type":"aligned","note":"Optional statistical exchange mapping; executable profile and SDMX binding remain future work."},{"target":"https://docs.ogc.org/is/15-078r6/15-078r6.html","type":"aligned","note":"Optional sensing profile; preserve its membership constraints only within that binding."},{"target":"WM-MAT-008 Observation / Measurement Record","type":"neighbor","note":"References evidence records and their revisions; does not own capture, calibration execution or result correction. A pattern may have many evidential series and measures."},{"target":"WM-ACT-015 Occurrence / Event","type":"neighbor","note":"A dated happening can support or instantiate a pattern but does not itself establish recurrence. Event identity and lifecycle remain external."},{"target":"WM-ACT-017 Situation","type":"neighbor","note":"A condition holding over an interval is separate from a recurring-pattern description. No automatic conversion of a detected departure into an active situation."},{"target":"WM-DAT-002 Official Statistics","type":"neighbor","note":"A released indicator or official statistical series is referenced as a product. This pattern catalogue cannot confer official status or duplicate statistical production."},{"target":"Legacy X2 and unreviewed card supplement","type":"neighbor","note":"Retain the recurring-pattern interpretation. Qualify single-unit, territory, one-series membership, one-method and anomaly-to-trend cardinalities as profile choices. No inherited conformance or open-release claim."}],"interaction":{"identity":{"applicability":"required","items":["Authoritative master-system identifier with its namespace","Governed global identifier or IRI","Dimension-assigned UUID or ULID"]},"properties":{"applicability":"not-applicable","items":[]},"recognition":{"applicability":"optional","items":[]},"capabilities":{"applicability":"required","items":["Register pattern proposal: Create a local candidate description without claiming that recurrence is established. Proposed local operation, not implemented.","Link evidence snapshot: Attach a pinned evidence selection and its contrary material to a pattern revision. Proposed local operation, not implemented.","Record comparability decision: Record an authorized assessment of a potential evidence break. Proposed local operation, not implemented.","Attach analytical interpretation: Record a trend or recurrence claim from an externally executed analysis. Proposed local operation, not implemented.","Record anomaly review: Record the local disposition of a departure after evidence-qualified review. Proposed local operation, not implemented.","Revise or retire pattern description: Apply an authorized local revision, supersession or retirement while preserving resolvable continuity. Proposed local operation, not implemented."]},"hazards":{"applicability":"optional","items":[]},"interfaces":{"applicability":"required","items":["PROV-O: The PROV Ontology"]},"context":{"applicability":"required","items":["International technical vocabularies are examples, not universal domain rules. NIST guidance does not establish local legal requirements.","Scientific applicability, data rights and disclosure restrictions require qualified adopting profiles."]}},"sources":[{"title":"Semantic Sensor Network Ontology","url":"https://www.w3.org/TR/2017/REC-vocab-ssn-20171019/","note":"W3C"},{"title":"SensorThings API - Part 1: Sensing","url":"https://docs.ogc.org/is/15-078r6/15-078r6.html","note":"Open Geospatial Consortium"},{"title":"The RDF Data Cube Vocabulary","url":"https://www.w3.org/TR/2014/REC-vocab-data-cube-20140116/","note":"W3C"},{"title":"PROV-O: The PROV Ontology","url":"https://www.w3.org/TR/2013/REC-prov-o-20130430/","note":"W3C"},{"title":"Introduction to Time Series Analysis","url":"https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/pmc/section4/pmc4.htm","note":"National Institute of Standards and Technology"},{"title":"Detection of Outliers","url":"https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda35h.htm","note":"National Institute of Standards and Technology"},{"title":"Date and Time on the Internet: Timestamps","url":"https://www.rfc-editor.org/rfc/rfc3339","note":"Internet Engineering Task Force"},{"title":"Essentials of expressing measurement uncertainty: Basic definitions","url":"https://physics.nist.gov/cuu/Uncertainty/basic.html","note":"National Institute of Standards and Technology"}],"openQuestions":["Run coordinator source checks and review current editions, relevant errata, licensing and claim applicability without interpreting HTTP success as substantive verification.","Develop domain profiles and fixtures for candidate recurrence, contradictory series, missing data, method breaks, shifted populations, revised baselines, irregular times, false anomalies and privacy-preserving release.","Restore independent external review and complete pinned mappings and executable validation before canonical or publishable-draft promotion.","Executable nested schemas, interval constraints and quantitative acceptance thresholds","Domain-specific recurrence criteria, qualitative social research protocols, statistical estimator validation and disclosure thresholds","Pinned neighbor specifications and tested exchange mappings, including direct SDMX and current ISO 19156 mappings","Independent external review and direct source HTTP verification"],"resources":{"spec":"/models/wm-act-016-observed-phenomenon/spec.yaml","agents":"/models/wm-act-016-observed-phenomenon/AGENTS.md","source":"https://github.com/ver-cy/world-models/tree/feat/mega-model-registry/research/runs/wm-act-016"},"provenance":{"origin":"world-models research","builtFrom":["models/wm-act-016-observed-phenomenon/spec.yaml"],"providers":["Codex"],"researchStatus":"reviewable-draft","generatedAt":"2026-10-06T14:19:46Z","builder":"tools/build_cards.py@1.0.0"},"completeness":{"sections":{"classifiers":"filled","whatItIs":"filled","purpose":"filled","distinguishingFeatures":"derived","structure":"filled","agentConduct":"derived","ethics":"derived","owners":"filled","relations":"filled","interaction.identity":"filled","interaction.properties":"not-applicable","interaction.recognition":"missing","interaction.capabilities":"filled","interaction.hazards":"missing","interaction.interfaces":"derived","interaction.context":"filled","sources":"filled"},"notes":{"distinguishingFeatures":"Derived from boundary notes against neighbouring models.","agentConduct":"Derived from functions, policies, CRUD and access rules; prohibitions were not authored for agents as such.","ethics":"Sentences mentioning harm, privacy, consent or similar, collected from the specification.","interaction.properties":"Institutional or informational subject: no invented physical properties."},"score":0.75}}