{ "model": { "rank": 5978, "code": "thing-q114380", "model_id": "vr.tr.financial-crisis", "name": "financial crisis", "purpose": "Enable an AI agent to recognise a financial crisis, assess the impairment of financial functions and distinguish feasible responses from actions requiring evidence or authority it lacks.", "family": "Thing Registry", "category": "Information and virtual systems", "status": "research-draft", "kind": "thing", "plane": "INF", "domain": "INF.KNW", "industry": "", "version": "", "url": "/models/thing/q114380/", "tier": 2, "score": 63, "payload": { "layer": "wikidata", "aliases": [ "Self-fulfilling crisis", "currency crisis", "flash crash", "liquidity crisis", "bank failure", "Minsky moment", "pensions crisis", "banking crisis" ], "aliasCount": 8, "merged": 8, "knownIn": 63, "facets": null, "markers": [], "lexicalClass": "", "senseRank": null, "alsoRegisteredAs": null, "source": { "dataset": "wikidata", "item": "Q114380", "url": "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q114380", "license": "CC0 1.0" } }, "research": { "vercy": "1.0-draft", "publication": { "status": "research-draft", "adjudicationStatus": "unreviewed", "publishableCanonical": false, "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T10:30:02Z", "providers": [ "Codex", "Grok" ], "missingProviders": [], "pass": 2, "cost": { "grok": { "usd": 0.01472676, "turns": 1, "seconds": 179.5, "error": null }, "codex": { "seconds": 85.6, "error": "Reading additional input from stdin...\nOpenAI Codex v0.153.3\n--------\nworkdir: R:\\02_PROJECTS\\02_Meta_Models_Platforms\\Ver.cy\\current\\thing-registry-backlog\nmodel: gpt-6-astra\nprovider: openai\napproval: never\nsandbox: read-only\nreasoning effort: none\nreasoning summaries: none\nsession id: 01a07b65-d904-79e3-9614-eadcd59a35e1\n--------\nuser\nYou are drafting a Vercy meta-model for one registered thing. Answer as JSON only, no prose around it.\n\nThing: financial crisis\nRegistry id: vr.tr.financial-crisis\nPlane / domain: XCT / XCT.STA\nRegistry definition: (none recorded)\nNames folded into this entry:" } } }, "metaModel": { "id": "THING-Q114380", "registryId": "vr.tr.financial-crisis", "name": "financial crisis", "version": "0.1.0-research.1", "entryKind": "thing", "family": "Thing Registry", "domain": [ "XCT.STA" ], "status": "research-draft" }, "canonicalUrl": "https://ver.cy/models/thing/q114380/", "model": { "registry_id": "vr.tr.financial-crisis", "name": "financial crisis", "purpose": "Enable an AI agent to recognise a financial crisis, assess the impairment of financial functions and distinguish feasible responses from actions requiring evidence or authority it lacks.", "definition": "A financial crisis is a discrete, system-wide episode in which liquidity or solvency fails across a large part of the financial system at once, asset prices fall sharply, and credit intermediation is impaired enough that fire sales, runs, official intervention, and real-economy damage typically follow.", "scope_statement": "This model owns the identification, boundaries, severity, transmission, evolution and response constraints of a financial crisis episode, linking to the institutions, markets, economies and interventions involved.", "in_scope": [ "Evidence that financial stress materially impairs financing, payments, intermediation or debt settlement within a defined system", "The episode's temporal, geographic, institutional and financial boundaries", "Liquidity shortages, solvency concerns, funding runs and mutually reinforcing losses", "Transmission across institutions, markets, currencies, sovereigns and the real economy", "Response options, implementation constraints and evidence of stabilisation or renewed stress" ], "out_of_scope": [ "Routine financial-system structure and supervision outside the crisis episode", "Complete accounts, operations or valuations of individual financial institutions", "Ordinary market corrections and asset-price volatility without demonstrated financial-function impairment", "Recessions, inflation episodes and other macroeconomic conditions except as causes, consequences or amplifiers", "Detailed legal proceedings, policy-instrument specifications and individual investment decisions" ], "distinguishing_features": [ "Distinguish a crisis from a price correction by identifying impaired financial functions and their reach, rather than using price declines alone.", "Distinguish a crisis from an isolated institutional failure by establishing disruption beyond that institution or impairment of a critical financial function.", "Distinguish a crisis from a recession by recording financial mechanisms directly; falling output alone does not establish a financial crisis.", "Distinguish a crisis from elevated vulnerability by separating realised dysfunction from exposures that could generate future stress.", "Distinguish one crisis episode from adjacent episodes through documented continuity of mechanisms, affected systems and recovery, while preserving disputed boundaries." ], "characteristics": [ { "name": "Episode classification", "kind": "category", "unit_or_values": "Banking, market liquidity, currency or external financing, sovereign debt, other specified; multiple classifications permitted", "why_it_matters": "Identifies the mechanisms requiring investigation without forcing a mixed crisis into one category." }, { "name": "Assessment state", "kind": "state", "unit_or_values": "Suspected crisis, assessed crisis, contested classification, insufficient evidence", "why_it_matters": "Separates an episode's proposed identity from the strength of evidence supporting it." }, { "name": "Episode phase", "kind": "state", "unit_or_values": "Acute disruption, propagation, provisional stabilisation, recovery, renewed stress, unresolved", "why_it_matters": "Supports phase-dependent decisions without assuming a linear path to recovery." }, { "name": "Affected financial perimeter", "kind": "relation", "unit_or_values": "Linked jurisdictions, currencies, institutions, sectors, markets and financial infrastructures, with inclusion reasons", "why_it_matters": "Defines the system within which severity and systemic importance are assessed." }, { "name": "Critical-function impairment", "kind": "category", "unit_or_values": "Payments, deposit access, credit provision, refinancing, market execution, collateral mobilisation, debt settlement; observed impairment specified for each", "why_it_matters": "Anchors recognition in financial dysfunction rather than labels or sentiment." }, { "name": "Funding and liquidity stress", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Time-stamped measures such as net outflows in currency per period, rollover rates in percent, funding spreads in basis points and liquidity coverage in days", "why_it_matters": "Shows where immediate obligations may exceed accessible funding and how quickly conditions change." }, { "name": "Loss absorption and solvency assessment", "kind": "state", "unit_or_values": "Adequate under stated assumptions, impaired, potentially insolvent, assessed insolvent, indeterminate", "why_it_matters": "Distinguishes temporary funding needs from losses that may require restructuring or recapitalisation." }, { "name": "Transmission dependence", "kind": "relation", "unit_or_values": "Directed links through exposures, common assets, funding, collateral, currency mismatch, guarantees or confidence, with evidence status", "why_it_matters": "Identifies pathways by which local stress can become wider disruption." }, { "name": "Intervention dependence", "kind": "state", "unit_or_values": "Not demonstrated, dependent on emergency support, dependence declining, functioning after withdrawal, unknown", "why_it_matters": "Prevents temporary calm under exceptional support from being mistaken for durable recovery." } ], "affordances": [ "Construct and revise an evidence-backed crisis perimeter and chronology.", "Compare observed financial-function impairment with an explicit crisis-recognition rule.", "Trace plausible transmission paths and identify evidence needed to distinguish contagion from common shocks.", "Assess conditional response options against funding needs, loss allocation, authority and implementation constraints.", "Monitor escalation, stabilisation and exit criteria while recording uncertainty and support dependence." ] }, "sources": [ { "id": "s1", "title": "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly - Princeton University Press (Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009)", "url": "", "what_it_supports": "Crisis taxonomy (banking, currency, sovereign, inflation, equity crashes); historical magnitudes for output, unemployment, house and equity prices, and public debt; the claim that banking crises are recurrent across advanced and emerging economies." }, { "id": "s2", "title": "Systemic Banking Crises Revisited - IMF Working Paper WP/18/206 (Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia, International Monetary Fund, 2018)", "url": "", "what_it_supports": "Operational definition and country-year dating of systemic banking crises; typical fiscal recapitalisation costs and output losses used in policy and empirical work." }, { "id": "s3", "title": "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems - American Economic Review (Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carmen M. Reinhart, 1999)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.3.473", "what_it_supports": "The twin-crisis kind; the empirical link between banking distress and currency collapse, especially after financial liberalisation.", "url_status": "blocked" }, { "id": "s4", "title": "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity - Journal of Political Economy (Douglas W. Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig, 1983)", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1086/261155", "what_it_supports": "The run/liquidity mechanism that distinguishes a banking crisis from a mere fall in asset prices; rationale for deposit insurance and last-resort lending.", "url_status": "blocked" }, { "id": "s5", "title": "Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises - Palgrave Macmillan / Wiley (Charles P. Kindleberger and Robert Z. Aliber, successive editions)", "url": "", "what_it_supports": "Historical morphology of boom, displacement, distress, and panic; displacement of the word 'panic' by 'financial crisis' in later usage." }, { "id": "s6", "title": "Misunderstanding Financial Crises: Why We Don't See Them Coming - Oxford University Press (Gary B. Gorton, 2012)", "url": "", "what_it_supports": "Wholesale-run / saleable-debt view of modern crises (including 2007-09 shadow banking); distinction from ordinary recessions and from firm-level default." }, { "id": "s7", "title": "Basel III: A global regulatory framework for more resilient banks and banking systems - Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Bank for International Settlements (2010, revised 2011)", "url": "https://www.bis.org/bcbs/basel3.htm", "what_it_supports": "Post-crisis capital, leverage, and liquidity standards (including LCR, NSFR, and the countercyclical buffer) written in response to systemic banking crises.", "url_status": "live" }, { "id": "s8", "title": "Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions - Financial Stability Board (2011, updated 2014)", "url": "", "what_it_supports": "International standard for resolving failing systemic institutions without uncontrolled collapse or unlimited bailout." } ], "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "crisis-recognition-and-perimeter", "name": "Crisis recognition and perimeter", "description": "Establish what is failing, why the episode qualifies as a financial crisis and where its boundaries lie.", "rationale": "An agent needs an explicit basis for recognising a crisis before interpreting indicators or proposing responses.", "layers": [ { "id": "financial-dysfunction", "name": "Financial dysfunction", "description": "Identify impaired financial functions and distinguish realised disruption from vulnerability.", "findings": [ { "id": "recognition-evidence", "name": "Recognition evidence", "description": "Record the evidence and assessment rule supporting or challenging the crisis designation.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which financing, payment, intermediation or settlement functions are materially impaired, and for whom?", "kind": "definition", "id": "recognition-evidence-q01" }, { "text": "What observations distinguish this episode from ordinary volatility, an isolated failure or a recession without financial dysfunction?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "recognition-evidence-q02" }, { "text": "Who designated the episode a crisis, using what evidence and criteria, and which assessments disagree?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "recognition-evidence-q03" } ] } ] }, { "id": "episode-boundaries", "name": "Episode boundaries", "description": "Define the affected system and the continuity of the episode through time.", "findings": [ { "id": "system-and-time-perimeter", "name": "System and time perimeter", "description": "Record included jurisdictions, markets and institutions together with provisional onset and episode-linkage decisions.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which jurisdictions, currencies, markets, institutions and infrastructures belong inside the affected perimeter, and why?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "system-and-time-perimeter-q01" }, { "text": "What evidence dates the onset and distinguishes continuation, recurrence and a separate crisis episode?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "system-and-time-perimeter-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "funding-losses-and-balance-sheets", "name": "Funding, losses and balance sheets", "description": "Identify the financial imbalances producing distress and assess whether obligations can be met or losses absorbed.", "rationale": "Liquidity shortfalls, currency mismatches and insolvency can coexist but imply different response requirements.", "layers": [ { "id": "liquidity-and-refinancing", "name": "Liquidity and refinancing", "description": "Assess near-term cash needs, funding withdrawals and the usability of liquidity buffers.", "findings": [ { "id": "cash-and-collateral-gap", "name": "Cash and collateral gap", "description": "Record obligations relative to accessible cash, refinancing and collateral under stated stress conditions.", "questions": [ { "text": "What obligations fall due by horizon and currency, including withdrawals, margin calls and debt maturities?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "cash-and-collateral-gap-q01" }, { "text": "How much cash or funding is actually accessible after collateral haircuts, encumbrance and transfer restrictions?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "cash-and-collateral-gap-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "solvency-and-loss-recognition", "name": "Solvency and loss recognition", "description": "Assess asset losses, contingent obligations and the capacity to absorb them.", "findings": [ { "id": "loss-bearing-capacity", "name": "Loss-bearing capacity", "description": "Record solvency assessments with their valuation assumptions, uncertainty and dependency on external support.", "questions": [ { "text": "What recognised, estimated and contingent losses threaten equity, fiscal capacity or other loss-absorbing resources?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "loss-bearing-capacity-q01" }, { "text": "Which valuation, recovery and funding assumptions determine whether the problem is assessed as illiquidity, insolvency or both?", "kind": "definition", "id": "loss-bearing-capacity-q02" }, { "text": "Which balance-sheet figures are independently verified, delayed, disputed or unavailable?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "loss-bearing-capacity-q03" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "transmission-and-amplification", "name": "Transmission and amplification", "description": "Explain how distress travels and which feedback mechanisms intensify it.", "rationale": "The originating failure does not by itself establish the reach or future trajectory of a financial crisis.", "layers": [ { "id": "financial-network-transmission", "name": "Financial network transmission", "description": "Trace channels linking distressed actors to other parts of the financial system.", "findings": [ { "id": "exposure-and-funding-pathways", "name": "Exposure and funding pathways", "description": "Record direct and indirect transmission links, separating observed propagation from hypothetical exposure.", "questions": [ { "text": "Through which counterparty exposures, funding dependencies, common asset holdings or infrastructures can distress propagate?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "exposure-and-funding-pathways-q01" }, { "text": "What evidence distinguishes transmission from independent reactions to a shared shock?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "exposure-and-funding-pathways-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "reinforcing-feedbacks", "name": "Reinforcing feedbacks", "description": "Assess mechanisms through which financial reactions create additional stress.", "findings": [ { "id": "run-and-loss-spirals", "name": "Run and loss spirals", "description": "Record supported feedback hypotheses involving withdrawals, forced sales, collateral, currencies, sovereigns or credit contraction.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which feedbacks are observed or suspected, such as withdrawals forcing asset sales or currency depreciation increasing foreign-currency debt burdens?", "kind": "definition", "id": "run-and-loss-spirals-q01" }, { "text": "Which indicators show whether each proposed feedback is strengthening, weakening or unsupported?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "run-and-loss-spirals-q02" }, { "text": "Where could an authorised intervention interrupt a feedback, and what displaced stress might it create?", "kind": "action", "id": "run-and-loss-spirals-q03" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "severity-and-trajectory", "name": "Severity and trajectory", "description": "Assess the depth, breadth and direction of financial disruption and its consequences.", "rationale": "An agent needs comparable observations and explicit recovery criteria to judge urgency and avoid premature closure.", "layers": [ { "id": "disruption-and-consequences", "name": "Disruption and consequences", "description": "Measure impairment and its distribution across financial users and connected economic activity.", "findings": [ { "id": "impairment-severity", "name": "Impairment severity", "description": "Record severity using contextualised indicators of financial access, reliability and loss.", "questions": [ { "text": "How far have payment completion, deposit access, market liquidity, refinancing and credit availability deteriorated against stated baselines?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "impairment-severity-q01" }, { "text": "Which households, firms, public bodies or regions bear the disruption, and which consequences can be attributed to the crisis with reasonable confidence?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "impairment-severity-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "stabilisation-and-recurrence", "name": "Stabilisation and recurrence", "description": "Track changes in phase and test whether apparent improvement can persist.", "findings": [ { "id": "durable-function-restoration", "name": "Durable function restoration", "description": "Distinguish easing symptoms from restored financial functions and resolved underlying vulnerabilities.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which impaired functions have recovered, for how long, and with what remaining restrictions or emergency support?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "durable-function-restoration-q01" }, { "text": "What evidence would justify changing the phase to recovery or declaring the episode ended?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "durable-function-restoration-q02" }, { "text": "Which unresolved funding needs, losses or support withdrawals could trigger renewed stress?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "durable-function-restoration-q03" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "response-authority-and-tradeoffs", "name": "Response authority and tradeoffs", "description": "Relate possible crisis responses to diagnosed mechanisms, lawful authority, capacity and consequences.", "rationale": "Recognising a crisis does not establish which actor may act, which instrument fits or who will bear its costs.", "layers": [ { "id": "intervention-fit-and-feasibility", "name": "Intervention fit and feasibility", "description": "Assess whether a response addresses the diagnosed failure and can be implemented in time.", "findings": [ { "id": "authorised-response-options", "name": "Authorised response options", "description": "Record candidate instruments, responsible actors, eligibility conditions and practical constraints.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which response options address the identified liquidity, solvency, market-function or debt-service problem, and under what assumptions?", "kind": "action", "id": "authorised-response-options-q01" }, { "text": "Which actor has authority and operational capacity to implement each option, subject to what legal, collateral, currency or fiscal constraints?", "kind": "action", "id": "authorised-response-options-q02" }, { "text": "What evidence or approval must the agent obtain before recommending, escalating or executing any response-related action?", "kind": "action", "id": "authorised-response-options-q03" } ] } ] }, { "id": "burden-sharing-and-exit", "name": "Burden sharing and exit", "description": "Assess loss allocation, side effects and the conditions for changing or withdrawing support.", "findings": [ { "id": "response-consequences-and-review", "name": "Response consequences and review", "description": "Record expected and observed consequences, including contingent public exposure and dependence on intervention.", "questions": [ { "text": "How would each option allocate losses and risks among shareholders, creditors, depositors, taxpayers and other affected parties?", "kind": "action", "id": "response-consequences-and-review-q01" }, { "text": "What indicators and review dates would trigger continuation, redesign or withdrawal, and how would renewed disruption be detected?", "kind": "action", "id": "response-consequences-and-review-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "evidence-and-external-alignment", "name": "Evidence and external alignment", "description": "What the world already says about this thing, gathered so the model can be checked against it.", "rationale": "A model that cannot be lined up against existing standards, identifiers and practice cannot be adopted by anyone who already uses them.", "layers": [ { "id": "reported-evidence", "name": "Reported evidence", "description": "Findings from the breadth pass, kept separate from the structural claims.", "findings": [ { "id": "evidence-kinds", "name": "Kinds and varieties", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ "Systemic banking crisis (runs, wholesale funding collapse, or widespread bank insolvency)", "Currency or balance-of-payments crisis (speculative attack, forced devaluation, reserve haemorrhage)", "Sovereign debt crisis (external or domestic default, restructuring, or near-default under market exclusion)", "Sudden-stop / capital-account crisis (abrupt reversal of foreign financing)", "Asset-price crash centred on equities or real estate", "Wholesale-funding or shadow-banking run (non-deposit money-market and repo distress)", "Twin or triple crisis (banking combined with currency and/or sovereign distress)", "Inflation crisis (Reinhart-Rogoff dating class; treated by others as a monetary-regime failure rather than a financial-system event)" ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-kinds-q01", "text": "Which of these kinds and varieties hold for the sense of financial crisis this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-identifiers", "name": "Identifiers and schemes", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ { "scheme": "Wikidata", "value_or_pattern": "Q1134604", "note": "Item 'financial crisis'; broader 'economic crisis' is a neighbour, not this item." }, { "scheme": "JEL classification (AEA)", "value_or_pattern": "G01", "note": "Financial Crises; related codes G21 (banks), G15 (international financial markets), F32/F34 (current-account and sovereign debt) sit nearby." }, { "scheme": "Library of Congress Subject Headings", "value_or_pattern": "Financial crises", "note": "Authorized heading is plural; narrower headings include Bank failures, Currency crises, Debts, Public, Stock market crashes." }, { "scheme": "IMF Laeven-Valencia systemic banking crisis episodes", "value_or_pattern": "ISO 3166 country + start year (optionally end year)", "note": "Episode keys in the IMF database, not a legal identifier of the event itself." }, { "scheme": "Reinhart-Rogoff crisis dates", "value_or_pattern": "country-year tagged by crisis type (banking, currency, sovereign external/domestic, inflation, stock-market crash)", "note": "Historical chronology used throughout empirical macro; independent of the IMF banking-crisis list." } ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-identifiers-q01", "text": "Which of these identifiers and schemes hold for the sense of financial crisis this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-standards-and-regulation", "name": "Standards and regulation", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ "Basel III capital, leverage and liquidity framework - Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (Bank for International Settlements)", "Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions - Financial Stability Board", "Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (2010) - United States Congress", "Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive 2014/59/EU and Single Resolution Mechanism Regulation (EU) No 806/2014 - European Union", "Deposit Guarantee Schemes Directive 2014/49/EU - European Union; Federal Deposit Insurance Act / FDICIA prompt corrective action (1991) - United States", "IMF Articles of Agreement, exceptional-access policy, and Financial Sector Assessment Program - International Monetary Fund", "IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation (stress, clearing, and short-selling aspects) - International Organization of Securities Commissions", "ESRB/ECB macroprudential framework and systemic-risk warnings - European Systemic Risk Board and European Central Bank" ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-standards-and-regulation-q01", "text": "Which of these standards and regulation hold for the sense of financial crisis this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-real-world-use", "name": "Real-world use", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ "Central banks and finance ministries use crisis dating and early-warning dashboards (credit-to-GDP gaps, property prices, wholesale spreads) to time countercyclical buffers and emergency liquidity.", "The IMF and World Bank treat identified episodes as the unit of FSAP surveillance, programme design, and exceptional-access lending.", "Resolution authorities (FDIC, SRB, national resolution bodies) apply living wills and bail-in once a systemic institution is failing or likely to fail.", "Empirical macroeconomics and economic history treat country-year crisis dummies as events that shift output, unemployment, public debt, and inequality.", "Markets price crisis risk in CDS, sovereign spreads, bank equity, and money-market premia (TED, LIBOR-OIS, EURIBOR-OIS).", "Stress tests at banks and CCPs are calibrated to historical crisis paths (2008 wholesale freeze, 1997-98 emerging-market sudden stops, 2010-12 euro-area sovereign loop)." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-real-world-use-q01", "text": "Which of these real-world use hold for the sense of financial crisis this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-measurements", "name": "Typical measurements", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ { "quantity": "Peak-to-trough real GDP in a systemic banking crisis", "typical_range": "about 5-10 in postwar advanced-economy episodes; often larger in emerging markets and in pre-1945 panics", "unit": "percent" }, { "quantity": "Cumulative real output loss relative to pre-crisis trend (Laeven-Valencia style)", "typical_range": "median on the order of 20-25; wide tails", "unit": "percent of GDP" }, { "quantity": "Peak-to-trough real house prices in housing-centred banking crises", "typical_range": "around 35 over roughly six years in the Reinhart-Rogoff historical average", "unit": "percent" }, { "quantity": "Peak-to-trough real equity prices", "typical_range": "around 50-60 over three to four years in historical banking crises", "unit": "percent" }, { "quantity": "Rise in real public debt in the years after a banking crisis", "typical_range": "Reinhart-Rogoff average near 80 over about three years; composition is recapitalisation plus automatic fiscal deterioration", "unit": "percent" }, { "quantity": "Direct fiscal recapitalisation and guarantee cost", "typical_range": "median roughly 5-12 of GDP; tail cases (e.g. Iceland, Ireland 2008) above 30", "unit": "percent of GDP" }, { "quantity": "Peak non-performing loans", "typical_range": "often 10-30 of gross loans in systemic banking crises; higher in some emerging-market cases", "unit": "percent" }, { "quantity": "Time from peak output to recovery of that peak", "typical_range": "typically 2-6; some banking crises last a decade or more (Japan 1990s)", "unit": "years" } ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-measurements-q01", "text": "Which of these typical measurements hold for the sense of financial crisis this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-failure-modes-and-hazards", "name": "Failure modes and hazards", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ "Deposit or wholesale runs force fire sales, which mark down remaining assets and convert a liquidity problem into insolvency.", "Credit contraction after bank capital loss produces a recession or depression and hysteresis in employment and investment.", "Sovereign-bank doom loop: bank losses hit the fiscal accounts, sovereign spreads hit bank books, and both lose market access.", "Cross-border contagion through common creditors, trade, and correlated asset holdings.", "Policy failure in both directions: delayed last-resort lending and resolution, or blanket bailouts that entrench moral hazard.", "Currency mismatch and sudden stops in economies that borrow in foreign currency, producing corporate and bank insolvency after devaluation.", "Political and social instability, including loss of confidence in money, payments, and public institutions.", "Long-run misallocation if zombie lending or overly abrupt deleveraging follows the peak of the crisis." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-failure-modes-and-hazards-q01", "text": "Which of these failure modes and hazards hold for the sense of financial crisis this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-regional-variation", "name": "Regional variation", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ "Nineteenth-century United States usage is 'panic' (1873, 1893, 1907); later US policy language prefers 'financial crisis' or episode names (Savings and Loan, Global Financial Crisis).", "Euro-area 2010-12 is commonly framed as a sovereign-debt crisis even where the binding constraint was bank-sovereign feedback, not a classic external default.", "Latin America is often described in sudden-stop and 'debt crisis' language (1980s, Tequila 1994-95, Argentina 2001) rather than as a pure banking-run sequence.", "East and Southeast Asia 1997-98 is the regional template for IMF-centred capital-account and currency crises after liberalisation.", "Japan's 1990s episode is a slow non-performing-loan and asset-price crisis with few depositor runs, sometimes named as stagnation rather than crisis.", "Official Chinese usage emphasises 'preventing systemic financial risk' (防范系统性金融风险) more than declaring a 'crisis'.", "Emerging-market crises more often combine currency mismatch and sudden stops; advanced-economy crises since 1980 more often combine housing, banks, and wholesale funding." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-regional-variation-q01", "text": "Which of these regional variation hold for the sense of financial crisis this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-neighbours", "name": "Neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ { "name": "Recession (NBER-style contraction)", "difference": "A recession is a sustained fall in real activity; a financial crisis is a break in intermediation. Recessions occur without systemic financial failure (many oil-shock and pandemic demand contractions); financial crises usually cause recessions but are identified by runs, market freezes, or widespread financial insolvency, not by GDP alone." }, { "name": "Bear market or market correction", "difference": "Equity declines of 10-20 percent, or even a crash confined to listed prices, are not a financial crisis unless credit supply, bank solvency, or funding markets fail with them." }, { "name": "Flash crash / microstructure freeze", "difference": "Minutes-to-hours liquidity evaporation in an electronic market without lasting impairment of banks or credit is a market-structure event, not a financial crisis." }, { "name": "Idiosyncratic bank or firm failure", "difference": "Failure of one institution (even a large one) is a crisis only if it produces system-wide runs, fire-sale externalities, or a halt in credit; that is the Laeven-Valencia systemic threshold." }, { "name": "Currency devaluation or regime change without financial freeze", "difference": "A controlled or even large depreciation is a currency crisis in some dating schemes only when it is sharp and costly; it is a financial crisis only if it bankrupts leveraged balance sheets or stops intermediation." }, { "name": "Sovereign default", "difference": "Default can occur with a still-functioning private financial system; it becomes (or joins) a financial crisis when banks are large holders of the sovereign, or when default triggers a domestic payments and credit collapse." }, { "name": "Depression", "difference": "Depression names a deep, prolonged real contraction; a financial crisis is a financial-system event that can cause a depression but is not defined by the depth of GDP loss." }, { "name": "Hyperinflation or monetary-regime collapse", "difference": "Loss of the unit of account can destroy finance, but many financial crises occur at low inflation; inflation crises in Reinhart-Rogoff dating are a separate class unless they also break banks and credit." } ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-neighbours-q01", "text": "Which of these neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart hold for the sense of financial crisis this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "openQuestions": [ "Which operational definition and evidence thresholds should govern crisis recognition across banking, currency, sovereign and market-centred episodes?", "How should the model delimit systemic importance in small jurisdictions, cross-border markets and systems dominated by one critical institution?", "Which indicators and baselines remain comparable when reporting quality, financial structures and policy regimes differ?", "How should research distinguish contagion, common shocks and intervention effects when observations are incomplete or simultaneous?", "What duration and degree of restored financial functioning justify closing an episode when exceptional support or unresolved losses remain?" ], "statistics": { "bundles": 6, "layers": 11, "findings": 18, "questions": 33 } }, "draft": { "generator": "vr.draft.v3", "status": "draft-generated", "researched": false, "archetype": "discipline or field of knowledge", "method": "Written from the archetype playbook - what this kind of thing needs beyond identity and provenance - and from the structure that recurred across 6,333 models already researched by two engines. Applied to this entry by rule. No source was read for this thing and no claim here is researched. This entry carries no facets of its own, so they were inferred from its domain - a guess about a whole domain applied to one thing.", "facetsInferred": true, "nextPass": "A researcher replaces this draft with a sourced specification. Treat every sentence below as a proposal to argue with.", "purpose": "Give an agent a durable, checkable way to recognise a financial crisis, record what state it is in, and decide what may be done with it.", "whatItIs": "Enable an AI agent to recognise a financial crisis, assess the impairment of financial functions and distinguish feasible responses from actions requiring evidence or authority it lacks.", "characteristics": { "substance": "information", "origin": "conceptual", "agency": "inert" }, "whatYouCanDoWithIt": [ "read and interpreted" ], "distinguishingFeatures": [ "Names folded into this entry, which a task may need to split apart again: Self-fulfilling crisis, currency crisis, flash crash, liquidity crisis, bank failure, Minsky moment, pensions crisis, banking crisis.", "8 finer distinctions are held as aliases rather than separate entries, because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it.", "Described in 63 Wikipedia languages, which is a measure of how widely the thing is known, not of how important it is." ], "openQuestionsForResearch": [ "Which of the bundles below does a real task actually need, and which are ceremony?", "What does this thing have that the facets do not capture at all?", "Which neighbouring kind is most often confused with a financial crisis, and on what evidence are they told apart?" ], "whatItIsMadeOf": "content that has to be carried by something else", "physicalCharacter": [ "Does nothing on its own; everything it does, something else did to it.", "These come from the domain this entry sits in rather than from the entry itself, so treat them as a first guess about the whole domain applied to one thing." ], "whatCanBeDoneWithIt": [ "read it and act on what it says" ], "howItIsRecognised": [], "relatedModels": [ { "relation": "covers", "note": "Finer kinds folded into this entry because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it. Each is a model waiting to be split out when one does.", "targets": [ "Self-fulfilling crisis", "currency crisis", "flash crash", "liquidity crisis", "bank failure", "Minsky moment", "pensions crisis", "banking crisis" ] } ], "standing": "Described in 63 Wikipedia languages, which measures how widely it is written about rather than how important or how common it is. 8 finer distinctions are held inside this entry as names rather than as separate models.", "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "identity-and-classification", "name": "Identity, naming and classification", "description": "How an agent tells one financial crisis from another, and a financial crisis from things that resemble it.", "rationale": "Recognition comes before every other claim. Without stable identity nothing else in the model can be trusted to be about the same thing twice.", "layers": [ { "id": "naming-and-identifiers", "name": "Names and identifiers", "description": "The names this thing goes by and the identifiers that survive translation and time.", "findings": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases", "name": "Preferred name, aliases and local names", "description": "Which name to use, which names mean the same thing, and which merely sound similar.", "questions": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the name of a financial crisis, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the name of a financial crisis, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the name of a financial crisis is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers", "name": "Stable identifiers and external keys", "description": "Identifiers that keep pointing at this kind of thing across systems and languages.", "questions": [ { "id": "stable-identifiers-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an identifier for a financial crisis, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an identifier for a financial crisis, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an identifier for a financial crisis is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "classification-and-granularity", "name": "Classification and granularity", "description": "Where a financial crisis sits among kinds, and how finely a task needs to cut it.", "findings": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents", "name": "Kind, parents and neighbouring kinds", "description": "The classes this thing belongs to and the ones it is next to.", "questions": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the kind of a financial crisis, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the kind of a financial crisis, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the kind of a financial crisis is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features", "name": "Distinguishing features", "description": "What separates a financial crisis from the things most often confused with it.", "questions": [ { "id": "distinguishing-features-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes what distinguishes a financial crisis, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about what distinguishes a financial crisis, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once what distinguishes a financial crisis is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "state-and-lifecycle", "name": "State and lifecycle", "description": "The states a financial crisis passes through and the events that move it between them.", "rationale": "Most decisions about a thing depend on what state it is in now, which is a claim with a time on it, not a property.", "layers": [ { "id": "lifecycle-stages", "name": "Lifecycle stages", "description": "From coming into existence to ceasing to be one of these.", "findings": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions", "name": "Stages and transitions", "description": "The stages worth naming and what moves a financial crisis between them.", "questions": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the lifecycle of a financial crisis, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the lifecycle of a financial crisis, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the lifecycle of a financial crisis is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "observations-and-status", "name": "Observations and current status", "description": "What is observed about a financial crisis, how often and by whom.", "findings": [ { "id": "observation-record", "name": "Observation record", "description": "How an observation of a financial crisis is recorded so that it can be superseded rather than overwritten.", "questions": [ { "id": "observation-record-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an observation of a financial crisis, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an observation of a financial crisis, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an observation of a financial crisis is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "content-and-access", "name": "Content, encoding and access", "description": "What a financial crisis says, how it is encoded and who may read it.", "rationale": "An informational thing carries content that can be copied, versioned and withheld, none of which its physical carrier explains.", "layers": [ { "id": "content-and-encoding", "name": "Content and encoding", "description": "The content itself, its format and its language.", "findings": [ { "id": "content-and-format", "name": "Content, format and language", "description": "What a financial crisis contains and in what form it is held.", "questions": [ { "id": "content-and-format-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the content of a financial crisis, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "content-and-format-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the content of a financial crisis, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "content-and-format-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the content of a financial crisis is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "access-and-rights", "name": "Access, rights and retention", "description": "Who may read, copy or change it, and for how long it is kept.", "findings": [ { "id": "access-rules", "name": "Access rules and retention", "description": "The permissions attached to a financial crisis and the period it survives.", "questions": [ { "id": "access-rules-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes access to a financial crisis, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "access-rules-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about access to a financial crisis, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "access-rules-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once access to a financial crisis is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "subject-and-method", "name": "Subject matter and method", "description": "What financial crisis studies and how it establishes anything.", "rationale": "A field is identified by its questions and its methods, and those are what distinguish it from the fields next to it.", "layers": [ { "id": "subject", "name": "Subject matter", "description": "The questions it takes as its own.", "findings": [ { "id": "subject-record", "name": "Questions and objects of study", "description": "What it is about, stated so a neighbouring field can be told apart.", "questions": [ { "id": "subject-record-q01", "text": "What questions and objects does financial crisis take as its own?", "kind": "definition" }, { "id": "subject-record-q02", "text": "Which questions does it share with a neighbouring field, and who claims them?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "method", "name": "Method and evidence", "description": "How claims are established and what counts as evidence.", "findings": [ { "id": "method-record", "name": "Methods and standards of evidence", "description": "The methods used and what they are taken to establish.", "questions": [ { "id": "method-record-q01", "text": "By what methods does financial crisis establish claims, and what counts as sufficient evidence?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "id": "method-record-q02", "text": "What kind of claim can this field not settle, and where should an agent look instead?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "institutions-and-classification", "name": "Institutions and classification", "description": "Where financial crisis is practised and how catalogues place it.", "rationale": "The institutional footprint is the evidence that a field exists as a field rather than as a topic.", "layers": [ { "id": "institutions", "name": "Institutional markers", "description": "Societies, journals, degrees and departments.", "findings": [ { "id": "institution-record", "name": "Bodies and venues", "description": "Where the field organises itself.", "questions": [ { "id": "institution-record-q01", "text": "Which societies, journals or degrees mark financial crisis as an established field?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "id": "institution-record-q02", "text": "What would show that it is emerging or dissolving rather than established?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "classification", "name": "Classification schemes", "description": "Where library and research classifications put it.", "findings": [ { "id": "classification-record", "name": "Codes and their disagreements", "description": "The classification codes that place it, and where they differ.", "questions": [ { "id": "classification-record-q01", "text": "Which classification schemes place financial crisis, under what codes?", "kind": "definition" }, { "id": "classification-record-q02", "text": "Where do those schemes disagree about its scope?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "provenance-and-evidence", "name": "Provenance, evidence and time", "description": "Where every claim about a financial crisis came from and when it held.", "rationale": "A claim without a source and a time cannot be superseded, only overwritten, and an agent that overwrites loses the ability to explain itself.", "layers": [ { "id": "source-and-authority", "name": "Source and authority", "description": "Who said it, on what evidence, and how strongly.", "findings": [ { "id": "claim-provenance", "name": "Claim provenance and confidence", "description": "The authority behind each claim about a financial crisis and how confident it is.", "questions": [ { "id": "claim-provenance-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes a claim about a financial crisis, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about a claim about a financial crisis, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once a claim about a financial crisis is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "time-and-versions", "name": "Time, versions and supersession", "description": "When a claim was true, when it was learnt, and what replaced it.", "findings": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession", "name": "Validity period and supersession", "description": "How an old claim about a financial crisis is retired without being erased.", "questions": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the validity of a claim about a financial crisis, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the validity of a claim about a financial crisis, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the validity of a claim about a financial crisis is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "statistics": { "bundles": 6, "layers": 12, "findings": 14, "questions": 38 } } } }