{ "model": { "rank": 15766, "code": "thing-q1277161", "model_id": "vr.tr.extreme-weather-event", "name": "extreme weather event", "purpose": "Let an agent explain extreme weather events and how they are defined, relay official warnings and safety guidance, present attribution to climate change with appropriate uncertainty, and support preparedness.", "family": "Thing Registry", "category": "Cross-cutting context", "status": "research-draft", "kind": "thing", "plane": "XCT", "domain": "XCT.STA", "industry": "", "version": "", "url": "/models/thing/q1277161/", "tier": 2, "score": 33, "payload": { "layer": "wikidata", "aliases": [ "extreme rainfall", "cool summer", "cold winter", "mild winter", "heavy rain", "downburst", "cold wave", "microburst", "extreme cold" ], "aliasCount": 9, "merged": 9, "knownIn": 33, "facets": null, "markers": [], "lexicalClass": "", "senseRank": null, "alsoRegisteredAs": null, "source": { "dataset": "wikidata", "item": "Q1277161", "url": "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1277161", "license": "CC0 1.0" } }, "research": { "vercy": "1.0-draft", "publication": { "status": "research-draft", "adjudicationStatus": "unreviewed", "publishableCanonical": false, "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T21:59:31Z", "providers": [ "Claude" ], "breadth": "written by Claude from model knowledge without web access - no source was read, every claim is a lead to verify", "pass": 2, "wave": 2, "engine": "claude" }, "metaModel": { "id": "THING-Q1277161", "registryId": "vr.tr.extreme-weather-event", "name": "extreme weather event", "version": "0.2.0-wave.2", "entryKind": "thing", "family": "Thing Registry", "domain": [ "XCT.STA" ], "status": "research-draft" }, "canonicalUrl": "https://ver.cy/models/thing/q1277161/", "model": { "registry_id": "vr.tr.extreme-weather-event", "name": "extreme weather event", "purpose": "Let an agent explain extreme weather events and how they are defined, relay official warnings and safety guidance, present attribution to climate change with appropriate uncertainty, and support preparedness.", "definition": "A weather event that is rare or severe for a place and season, such as heavy rainfall, downbursts, heatwaves, cold spells, unusually mild or cold winters and cool summers, defined statistically relative to climatology and posing risks to people, infrastructure and ecosystems; extreme weather events are monitored and warned by meteorological services and are increasingly analysed for links to climate change.", "what_it_is_for": "Rare or severe weather and its risks.", "affordances": [ "explain definitions and types", "relay warnings and safety guidance", "present climate attribution with uncertainty", "support preparedness" ], "distinguishing_features": [ "Statistically rare or severe", "Hazardous", "Warned", "Climate-linked" ], "appearance": "Storms, floods, heat, cold and other severe conditions.", "visual_identification": [ "Rare or severe relative to climatology", "Warned by meteorological services", "Ordinary seasonal weather is not extreme" ], "physical_properties": [], "families_and_kinds": [ "extreme rainfall and flooding", "heatwaves and cold spells", "downbursts and severe storms", "anomalous seasons such as mild winters and cool summers", "compound events" ], "related_models": [ { "relation": "is a kind of", "target": "meteorological phenomenon", "why": "category" }, { "relation": "is a kind of", "target": "natural risk", "why": "category" }, { "relation": "is related to", "target": "snow", "why": "winter extremes" }, { "relation": "is related to", "target": "dust cloud", "why": "associated hazards" } ], "identifiers": [], "standards_and_regulation": [ "Meteorological warning systems", "Civil protection and emergency plans", "Climate attribution methodology" ], "failure_modes_and_hazards": [ "Ignoring warnings", "Overstating or understating climate links", "Infrastructure failure" ], "in_scope": [], "out_of_scope": [], "characteristics": [] }, "sources": [], "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "safety", "name": "Safety", "description": "During an event.", "rationale": "Warnings.", "layers": [ { "id": "warnings", "name": "Warnings", "description": "Current warnings.", "findings": [ { "id": "warnings-finding", "name": "Warnings", "description": "Warnings.", "questions": [ { "text": "What warnings are in force for this area, according to the meteorological service, and what do they advise?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Is someone in immediate danger requiring emergency services?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "act", "name": "Act", "description": "What to do.", "findings": [ { "id": "act-finding", "name": "Act", "description": "Actions.", "questions": [ { "text": "What does official guidance say to do before, during and after this kind of event?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Which vulnerable people need extra care?", "kind": "provenance" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "understand", "name": "Understand", "description": "What makes weather extreme.", "rationale": "Science.", "layers": [ { "id": "definition", "name": "Definition", "description": "Definitions.", "findings": [ { "id": "definition-finding", "name": "Definition", "description": "Definitions.", "questions": [ { "text": "How are extreme weather events defined statistically, and how do definitions vary by place and season?", "kind": "definition" }, { "text": "What kinds of event exist, from downbursts to anomalous seasons?", "kind": "definition" } ] } ] }, { "id": "causes", "name": "Causes", "description": "Meteorological causes.", "findings": [ { "id": "causes-finding", "name": "Causes", "description": "Causes.", "questions": [ { "text": "What meteorological conditions produce this kind of event?", "kind": "definition" }, { "text": "How are events forecast?", "kind": "provenance" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "climate", "name": "Climate", "description": "Links to climate change.", "rationale": "Attribution.", "layers": [ { "id": "attribution", "name": "Attribution", "description": "Event attribution.", "findings": [ { "id": "attribution-finding", "name": "Attribution", "description": "Attribution.", "questions": [ { "text": "What do attribution studies say about the role of climate change in this event or event type, with uncertainty stated?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "How is attribution done?", "kind": "provenance" } ] } ] }, { "id": "trends", "name": "Trends", "description": "Trends.", "findings": [ { "id": "trends-finding", "name": "Trends", "description": "Trends.", "questions": [ { "text": "How are extreme events changing in frequency and intensity, according to assessments?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Are positions attributed neutrally?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "prepare", "name": "Prepare", "description": "Preparedness and records.", "rationale": "Resilience.", "layers": [ { "id": "prepare", "name": "Prepare", "description": "Preparing.", "findings": [ { "id": "prepare-finding", "name": "Prepare", "description": "Preparedness.", "questions": [ { "text": "How can households, businesses and communities prepare for extreme weather here?", "kind": "action" }, { "text": "Which insurance and support schemes exist?", "kind": "provenance" } ] } ] }, { "id": "records", "name": "Records", "description": "Past events.", "findings": [ { "id": "records-finding", "name": "Records", "description": "Records.", "questions": [ { "text": "What were the notable extreme events in this area, and what records exist?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Which entry fits a specific event?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "openQuestions": [ "Should each event type be a separate entry?", "How should warning feeds be linked?", "How should attribution studies be linked?" ], "statistics": { "bundles": 4, "layers": 8, "findings": 8, "questions": 16 } }, "draft": { "generator": "vr.draft.v3", "status": "draft-generated", "researched": false, "archetype": "abstract concept", "method": "Written from the archetype playbook - what this kind of thing needs beyond identity and provenance - and from the structure that recurred across 6,333 models already researched by two engines. Applied to this entry by rule. No source was read for this thing and no claim here is researched. This entry carries no facets of its own, so they were inferred from its domain - a guess about a whole domain applied to one thing.", "facetsInferred": true, "nextPass": "A researcher replaces this draft with a sourced specification. Treat every sentence below as a proposal to argue with.", "purpose": "Give an agent a durable, checkable way to recognise a extreme weather event, record what state it is in, and decide what may be done with it.", "whatItIs": "Let an agent explain extreme weather events and how they are defined, relay official warnings and safety guidance, present attribution to climate change with appropriate uncertainty, and support preparedness.", "characteristics": { "substance": "abstract", "origin": "conceptual", "agency": "inert" }, "whatYouCanDoWithIt": [ "observed and measured" ], "distinguishingFeatures": [ "Names folded into this entry, which a task may need to split apart again: extreme rainfall, cool summer, cold winter, mild winter, heavy rain, downburst, cold wave, microburst, extreme cold.", "9 finer distinctions are held as aliases rather than separate entries, because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it.", "Described in 33 Wikipedia languages, which is a measure of how widely the thing is known, not of how important it is." ], "openQuestionsForResearch": [ "Which of the bundles below does a real task actually need, and which are ceremony?", "What does this thing have that the facets do not capture at all?", "Which neighbouring kind is most often confused with a extreme weather event, and on what evidence are they told apart?" ], "whatItIsMadeOf": "an abstraction with no physical instance", "physicalCharacter": [ "Does nothing on its own; everything it does, something else did to it.", "These come from the domain this entry sits in rather than from the entry itself, so treat them as a first guess about the whole domain applied to one thing." ], "whatCanBeDoneWithIt": [ "observe it, measure it, record its state" ], "howItIsRecognised": [ "Nothing to see. What is recognised is an instance of it, and which instances count is exactly what is argued about." ], "relatedModels": [ { "relation": "covers", "note": "Finer kinds folded into this entry because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it. Each is a model waiting to be split out when one does.", "targets": [ "extreme rainfall", "cool summer", "cold winter", "mild winter", "heavy rain", "downburst", "cold wave", "microburst", "extreme cold" ] } ], "standing": "Described in 33 Wikipedia languages, which measures how widely it is written about rather than how important or how common it is. 9 finer distinctions are held inside this entry as names rather than as separate models.", "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "identity-and-classification", "name": "Identity, naming and classification", "description": "How an agent tells one extreme weather event from another, and a extreme weather event from things that resemble it.", "rationale": "Recognition comes before every other claim. Without stable identity nothing else in the model can be trusted to be about the same thing twice.", "layers": [ { "id": "naming-and-identifiers", "name": "Names and identifiers", "description": "The names this thing goes by and the identifiers that survive translation and time.", "findings": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases", "name": "Preferred name, aliases and local names", "description": "Which name to use, which names mean the same thing, and which merely sound similar.", "questions": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the name of a extreme weather event, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the name of a extreme weather event, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the name of a extreme weather event is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers", "name": "Stable identifiers and external keys", "description": "Identifiers that keep pointing at this kind of thing across systems and languages.", "questions": [ { "id": "stable-identifiers-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an identifier for a extreme weather event, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an identifier for a extreme weather event, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an identifier for a extreme weather event is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "classification-and-granularity", "name": "Classification and granularity", "description": "Where a extreme weather event sits among kinds, and how finely a task needs to cut it.", "findings": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents", "name": "Kind, parents and neighbouring kinds", "description": "The classes this thing belongs to and the ones it is next to.", "questions": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the kind of a extreme weather event, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the kind of a extreme weather event, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the kind of a extreme weather event is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features", "name": "Distinguishing features", "description": "What separates a extreme weather event from the things most often confused with it.", "questions": [ { "id": "distinguishing-features-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes what distinguishes a extreme weather event, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about what distinguishes a extreme weather event, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once what distinguishes a extreme weather event is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "state-and-lifecycle", "name": "State and lifecycle", "description": "The states a extreme weather event passes through and the events that move it between them.", "rationale": "Most decisions about a thing depend on what state it is in now, which is a claim with a time on it, not a property.", "layers": [ { "id": "lifecycle-stages", "name": "Lifecycle stages", "description": "From coming into existence to ceasing to be one of these.", "findings": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions", "name": "Stages and transitions", "description": "The stages worth naming and what moves a extreme weather event between them.", "questions": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the lifecycle of a extreme weather event, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the lifecycle of a extreme weather event, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the lifecycle of a extreme weather event is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "observations-and-status", "name": "Observations and current status", "description": "What is observed about a extreme weather event, how often and by whom.", "findings": [ { "id": "observation-record", "name": "Observation record", "description": "How an observation of a extreme weather event is recorded so that it can be superseded rather than overwritten.", "questions": [ { "id": "observation-record-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an observation of a extreme weather event, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an observation of a extreme weather event, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an observation of a extreme weather event is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "definitions-in-contest", "name": "Definitions and who holds them", "description": "What extreme weather event is taken to mean, and by whom.", "rationale": "When a field disagrees about a concept, the disagreement is the content. A model that picks one definition silently destroys the information.", "layers": [ { "id": "competing-definitions", "name": "Competing definitions", "description": "The main readings and the traditions behind them.", "findings": [ { "id": "definition-map", "name": "Definitions and their holders", "description": "Each definition with the school or body that holds it.", "questions": [ { "id": "definition-map-q01", "text": "Which definitions of extreme weather event are in use, and which tradition or body holds each?", "kind": "definition" }, { "id": "definition-map-q02", "text": "What turns on the difference between them in practice?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "operationalisation", "name": "Operationalisation", "description": "How it is measured or applied when it has to be.", "findings": [ { "id": "operational-record", "name": "Measures and proxies", "description": "Instruments and indicators used to stand in for it.", "questions": [ { "id": "operational-record-q01", "text": "How is extreme weather event operationalised or measured in practice, and by what instrument?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "id": "operational-record-q02", "text": "What does that operationalisation leave out, and when does that matter?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "instances-and-use", "name": "Instances, use and consequence", "description": "What counts as an instance of extreme weather event and what follows from calling something that.", "rationale": "Applying a concept is an act with consequences, so a model must say what the label licenses and what it does not.", "layers": [ { "id": "instances", "name": "What counts as an instance", "description": "Clear cases, borderline cases and non-cases.", "findings": [ { "id": "instance-tests", "name": "Tests for an instance", "description": "What would settle whether something falls under it.", "questions": [ { "id": "instance-tests-q01", "text": "What would settle whether something is an instance of extreme weather event?", "kind": "boundary" }, { "id": "instance-tests-q02", "text": "Which borderline cases are argued about, and on what grounds?", "kind": "definition" } ] } ] }, { "id": "consequence", "name": "Consequence of application", "description": "Rights, duties or decisions that follow from the label.", "findings": [ { "id": "consequence-record", "name": "What the label licenses", "description": "What an agent may do once something is classified this way.", "questions": [ { "id": "consequence-record-q01", "text": "What follows practically once something is treated as extreme weather event?", "kind": "action" }, { "id": "consequence-record-q02", "text": "What must an agent not infer from the label alone?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "provenance-and-evidence", "name": "Provenance, evidence and time", "description": "Where every claim about a extreme weather event came from and when it held.", "rationale": "A claim without a source and a time cannot be superseded, only overwritten, and an agent that overwrites loses the ability to explain itself.", "layers": [ { "id": "source-and-authority", "name": "Source and authority", "description": "Who said it, on what evidence, and how strongly.", "findings": [ { "id": "claim-provenance", "name": "Claim provenance and confidence", "description": "The authority behind each claim about a extreme weather event and how confident it is.", "questions": [ { "id": "claim-provenance-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes a claim about a extreme weather event, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about a claim about a extreme weather event, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once a claim about a extreme weather event is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "time-and-versions", "name": "Time, versions and supersession", "description": "When a claim was true, when it was learnt, and what replaced it.", "findings": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession", "name": "Validity period and supersession", "description": "How an old claim about a extreme weather event is retired without being erased.", "questions": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the validity of a claim about a extreme weather event, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the validity of a claim about a extreme weather event, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the validity of a claim about a extreme weather event is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "statistics": { "bundles": 5, "layers": 10, "findings": 12, "questions": 32 } } } }