{ "model": { "rank": 4748, "code": "thing-q182868", "model_id": "vr.tr.weather-forecasting", "name": "weather forecasting", "purpose": "Enable an agent to identify a weather forecasting activity, assess the fitness and uncertainty of its predictions, and determine how those predictions may be issued, revised or used.", "family": "Thing Registry", "category": "Activities and processes", "status": "research-draft", "kind": "thing", "plane": "ACT", "domain": "ACT.ACT", "industry": "", "version": "", "url": "/models/thing/q182868/", "tier": 2, "score": 73, "payload": { "layer": "wikidata", "aliases": [ "nowcasting", "Special weather statement", "SPECI", "special weather report", "tropical cyclone forecasting", "Ensemble forecasting", "Sailing weather prediction", "Terminal aerodrome forecast", "Precipitation Nowcast" ], "aliasCount": 9, "merged": 9, "knownIn": 73, "facets": null, "markers": [], "lexicalClass": "", "senseRank": null, "alsoRegisteredAs": null, "source": { "dataset": "wikidata", "item": "Q182868", "url": "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182868", "license": "CC0 1.0" } }, "research": { "vercy": "1.0-draft", "publication": { "status": "research-draft", "adjudicationStatus": "unreviewed", "publishableCanonical": false, "generatedAt": "2026-09-09T20:55:16Z", "providers": [ "Codex" ], "breadth": "recalled by Codex without web access - no source was read", "missingProviders": [], "pass": 2, "cost": { "grok": { "seconds": 24.6, "error": "Reading additional input from stdin...\nOpenAI Codex v0.153.4\n--------\nworkdir: R:\\02_PROJECTS\\02_Meta_Models_Platforms\\Ver.cy\\current\\thing-registry-backlog\nmodel: gpt-6-astra\nprovider: openai\napproval: never\nsandbox: read-only\nreasoning effort: none\nreasoning summaries: none\nsession id: 01a087f3-020e-7363-bc05-a18b7327f051\n--------\nuser\nDescribe what is already known about one registered thing. Answer as JSON only, no prose around it.\n\nThing: weather forecasting\nSense to describe: (none recorded)\nDomain code: ACT.ACT\nAlso known as: (none)\n\n\nContext for this batch of 1001 things:\n# Batch 005: ", "usd": 0, "recall": true }, "codex": { "seconds": 71.4, "error": "Reading additional input from stdin...\nOpenAI Codex v0.153.4\n--------\nworkdir: R:\\02_PROJECTS\\02_Meta_Models_Platforms\\Ver.cy\\current\\thing-registry-backlog\nmodel: gpt-6-astra\nprovider: openai\napproval: never\nsandbox: read-only\nreasoning effort: none\nreasoning summaries: none\nsession id: 01a087f3-0206-78b2-a6d2-58d3c52b9b4f\n--------\nuser\nYou are drafting a Vercy meta-model for one registered thing. Answer as JSON only, no prose around it.\n\nThing: weather forecasting\nRegistry id: vr.tr.weather-forecasting\nPlane / domain: ACT / ACT.ACT\nRegistry definition: (none recorded)\nNames folded into this " } } }, "metaModel": { "id": "THING-Q182868", "registryId": "vr.tr.weather-forecasting", "name": "weather forecasting", "version": "0.1.0-research.1", "entryKind": "thing", "family": "Thing Registry", "domain": [ "ACT.ACT" ], "status": "research-draft" }, "canonicalUrl": "https://ver.cy/models/thing/q182868/", "model": { "registry_id": "vr.tr.weather-forecasting", "name": "weather forecasting", "purpose": "Enable an agent to identify a weather forecasting activity, assess the fitness and uncertainty of its predictions, and determine how those predictions may be issued, revised or used.", "definition": "Weather forecasting is the activity of estimating future atmospheric conditions for specified places and times using observations, physical understanding, numerical or statistical models, and expert interpretation.", "scope_statement": "This model owns weather forecasting as an activity that produces and updates predictions of atmospheric conditions for specified places and future times, including its evidence, predictive methods, uncertainty, communication and verification.", "in_scope": [ "Forecast targets, geographic coverage, issue times, valid times and intended uses", "Observational inputs, initial conditions and their suitability for the forecast", "Prediction methods, model guidance and forecaster interpretation", "Forecast uncertainty, calibration and limits of predictability", "Forecast issuance, updates, provenance and communication", "Verification against observations and relevant reference forecasts" ], "out_of_scope": [ "Atmospheric processes themselves, which belong to weather and atmospheric-system models", "Long-term climate projections and climate-change scenarios", "Design and maintenance of observing instruments and computing infrastructure", "Meteorology as a discipline and meteorologist as an occupation", "Emergency response decisions and protective actions taken using forecasts", "Hydrological, agricultural or economic impact predictions beyond the atmospheric forecast" ], "distinguishing_features": [ "A forecast predicts conditions at a valid time later than its information cutoff; an observation reports conditions already measured.", "An operational forecast must be available before its predicted conditions occur; a retrospective forecast recreates an earlier prediction setting and must be identified separately.", "Weather forecasting targets atmospheric conditions for specified future periods; climate projection targets longer-term climate behaviour under stated assumptions.", "A forecast estimates conditions or event probabilities; a warning additionally applies an issuing authority's hazard criteria and communication responsibilities.", "A numerical model run becomes usable forecast guidance only when its initialization, target times, variables and interpretation are identifiable." ], "characteristics": [ { "name": "Forecast target", "kind": "category", "unit_or_values": "Atmospheric variable or event, including units, threshold and temporal aggregation where applicable", "why_it_matters": "Distinguishes predictions such as instantaneous temperature, accumulated rainfall and probability of a thunderstorm." }, { "name": "Geographic support", "kind": "relation", "unit_or_values": "Point, route, grid cell, area or atmospheric volume; coordinates and elevation where relevant", "why_it_matters": "Determines where the prediction applies and which observations can fairly verify it." }, { "name": "Forecast timing", "kind": "relation", "unit_or_values": "Information cutoff, initialization time, issue time and valid instant or interval, each with time zone", "why_it_matters": "Separates what was known when the prediction was made from when it was delivered and when it applies." }, { "name": "Forecast lead time", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Minutes, hours or days, with the reference time explicitly named", "why_it_matters": "Supports meaningful comparisons of forecast difficulty and usefulness." }, { "name": "Spatial and temporal resolution", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Metres or kilometres; minutes or hours; distinguish computational resolution from published detail", "why_it_matters": "Helps identify unsupported local precision and mismatches with the user's decision scale." }, { "name": "Prediction method", "kind": "category", "unit_or_values": "Numerical prediction, statistical prediction, machine learning, extrapolation, human synthesis or a documented combination", "why_it_matters": "Identifies how evidence becomes a forecast and which limitations require examination." }, { "name": "Uncertainty representation", "kind": "category", "unit_or_values": "Point estimate, quantiles, interval, event probability, ensemble scenarios or qualitative confidence", "why_it_matters": "Determines which interpretations and downstream decisions the forecast supports." }, { "name": "Input readiness", "kind": "state", "unit_or_values": "Ready, degraded, blocked or unknown, under declared coverage, latency and quality criteria", "why_it_matters": "Makes missing or stale observations visible before forecasts are issued." }, { "name": "Forecast release status", "kind": "state", "unit_or_values": "Draft, issued, superseded, withdrawn or expired", "why_it_matters": "Prevents users and agents from treating obsolete predictions as current guidance." }, { "name": "Verification performance", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Named metric and value, with target, lead time, evaluation period, sample size and reference forecast", "why_it_matters": "Makes performance claims interpretable and limits their transfer to untested conditions." } ], "affordances": [ "Specify a forecast request with atmospheric targets, location, valid period and decision-relevant thresholds.", "Check whether observations and guidance are sufficiently current and applicable to generate or update a forecast.", "Compare forecast methods or providers at matched targets, lead times and verification conditions.", "Express predictions as values, probabilities or scenarios while preserving their uncertainty and provenance.", "Issue, revise, supersede or withdraw a forecast under the applicable publication authority.", "Verify archived forecasts and identify conditions requiring recalibration or method review." ] }, "sources": [], "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "forecast-target-and-use", "name": "Forecast target and use", "description": "Defines the atmospheric prediction being requested and the setting in which it will be interpreted.", "rationale": "A forecast cannot be assessed without knowing exactly what, where and when it predicts.", "layers": [ { "id": "atmospheric-target", "name": "Atmospheric target", "description": "Identifies variables, events and their spatial and temporal support.", "findings": [ { "id": "target-definition", "name": "Target definition", "description": "Record the predicted quantity or event with enough detail to distinguish superficially similar forecast products.", "questions": [ { "text": "Does the forecast concern a value, accumulation, extreme or threshold event, and what units and aggregation define it?", "kind": "definition", "id": "target-definition-q01" }, { "text": "Does the target apply to a station location, an entire area, any point within an area or a specified atmospheric layer?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "target-definition-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "forecast-time-and-decision", "name": "Forecast time and decision", "description": "Connects prediction timing to the intended use.", "findings": [ { "id": "usable-forecast-window", "name": "Usable forecast window", "description": "Record when the forecast becomes available, when it applies and how much advance notice its user requires.", "questions": [ { "text": "What are the information cutoff, issue time and valid period, and which reference time defines lead time?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "usable-forecast-window-q01" }, { "text": "What decision must this forecast support, and by what deadline must it be available to affect that decision?", "kind": "action", "id": "usable-forecast-window-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "observations-and-initial-state", "name": "Observations and initial state", "description": "Captures the evidence used to characterize current atmospheric conditions.", "rationale": "Forecast fitness depends partly on the availability, quality and representativeness of its starting evidence.", "layers": [ { "id": "observing-inputs", "name": "Observing inputs", "description": "Records the observing sources actually available to the forecasting activity.", "findings": [ { "id": "observation-coverage-and-quality", "name": "Observation coverage and quality", "description": "Record input origin, observation time, arrival time, quality checks and consequential gaps.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which station, radar, satellite, upper-air or other observations were actually available before the forecast information cutoff?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "observation-coverage-and-quality-q01" }, { "text": "Which missing, delayed or suspect observations affect coverage of the target location or developing weather system?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "observation-coverage-and-quality-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "initial-condition-construction", "name": "Initial condition construction", "description": "Identifies how observations and prior estimates establish the starting atmospheric state.", "findings": [ { "id": "analysis-and-boundary-inputs", "name": "Analysis and boundary inputs", "description": "Record the analysis or other starting representation, including external boundary inputs where the method requires them.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which analysis, observation sequence or other starting state initialized the prediction, and how was it constructed?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "analysis-and-boundary-inputs-q01" }, { "text": "Do inconsistencies or stale initial or boundary inputs require delaying the run, using a fallback or flagging degraded guidance?", "kind": "action", "id": "analysis-and-boundary-inputs-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "prediction-and-interpretation", "name": "Prediction and interpretation", "description": "Describes how atmospheric evidence is transformed into forecast guidance and a final prediction.", "rationale": "The agent must distinguish raw method output from the adjustments and judgments embodied in an issued forecast.", "layers": [ { "id": "predictive-method", "name": "Predictive method", "description": "Identifies the prediction system and its applicability to the requested target.", "findings": [ { "id": "method-configuration-and-fit", "name": "Method configuration and fit", "description": "Record the method version, configuration and evidence of suitability for the phenomenon and lead time.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which numerical, statistical, machine-learning or extrapolation system produced the guidance, using which version and configuration?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "method-configuration-and-fit-q01" }, { "text": "What evidence supports this method's use for the requested weather phenomenon, terrain, spatial scale and lead time?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "method-configuration-and-fit-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "guidance-to-forecast", "name": "Guidance to forecast", "description": "Tracks blending, correction, localization and human interpretation.", "findings": [ { "id": "forecast-transformations", "name": "Forecast transformations", "description": "Record how the issued forecast differs from its input guidance and why those differences were introduced.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which bias corrections, downscaling steps, guidance blends or forecaster adjustments changed the original output?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "forecast-transformations-q01" }, { "text": "When guidance disagrees about storm track, onset time or intensity, how is the final forecast selected or expressed as alternatives?", "kind": "action", "id": "forecast-transformations-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "uncertainty-and-predictability", "name": "Uncertainty and predictability", "description": "Makes the forecast's range of possible outcomes and limits of confidence explicit.", "rationale": "An agent needs to distinguish a useful estimate from an unsupported claim of precision.", "layers": [ { "id": "probability-and-scenarios", "name": "Probability and scenarios", "description": "Defines the interpretation and construction of probabilistic or scenario-based guidance.", "findings": [ { "id": "uncertainty-semantics", "name": "Uncertainty semantics", "description": "Record precisely what a probability, interval or scenario represents and how it was derived.", "questions": [ { "text": "For each probability or interval, what event, location, valid period and coverage interpretation does it describe?", "kind": "definition", "id": "uncertainty-semantics-q01" }, { "text": "Was uncertainty derived from ensemble members, calibrated statistical output, historical errors or expert judgment?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "uncertainty-semantics-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "limits-of-confidence", "name": "Limits of confidence", "description": "Identifies unresolved timing, location and intensity uncertainty relevant to use.", "findings": [ { "id": "decision-relevant-uncertainty", "name": "Decision-relevant uncertainty", "description": "Record which uncertainties can change the user's interpretation and what evidence could reduce them.", "questions": [ { "text": "How much uncertainty concerns event occurrence, location, timing and intensity, and which components are quantified?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "decision-relevant-uncertainty-q01" }, { "text": "Which new observations or forecast cycles could justify narrowing the range, changing confidence or revising the preferred scenario?", "kind": "action", "id": "decision-relevant-uncertainty-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "issuance-and-revision", "name": "Issuance and revision", "description": "Controls how forecast products become available and remain interpretable through updates.", "rationale": "Even technically sound guidance can mislead if its authority, age, scope or replacement status is unclear.", "layers": [ { "id": "forecast-product", "name": "Forecast product", "description": "Connects scientific content to a traceable issued product.", "findings": [ { "id": "release-identity-and-meaning", "name": "Release identity and meaning", "description": "Record the issuer, product version, issue time and wording needed to interpret the prediction correctly.", "questions": [ { "text": "Who issued this forecast, which release does it belong to and which guidance supports it?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "release-identity-and-meaning-q01" }, { "text": "Does the product communicate a forecast, a hazard watch or an official warning, and whose criteria establish that distinction?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "release-identity-and-meaning-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "update-lifecycle", "name": "Update lifecycle", "description": "Tracks scheduled cycles and event-driven corrections.", "findings": [ { "id": "revision-and-supersession", "name": "Revision and supersession", "description": "Record when changing evidence requires an update and how recipients identify the current forecast.", "questions": [ { "text": "What observed developments, guidance changes or discovered errors trigger an unscheduled forecast revision?", "kind": "action", "id": "revision-and-supersession-q01" }, { "text": "How are superseded, withdrawn and expired forecasts identified while retaining their original content for verification?", "kind": "action", "id": "revision-and-supersession-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "verification-and-improvement", "name": "Verification and improvement", "description": "Assesses predictions against outcomes and translates demonstrated weaknesses into changes.", "rationale": "Forecast quality must be evaluated under explicit comparison conditions rather than inferred from isolated successes.", "layers": [ { "id": "verification-design", "name": "Verification design", "description": "Defines the observations, matching rules and reference predictions used for evaluation.", "findings": [ { "id": "fair-outcome-comparison", "name": "Fair outcome comparison", "description": "Record how archived forecasts are paired with suitable observations without introducing information unavailable at issuance.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which observations verify the target, and how are spatial support, accumulation windows, missing data and observation uncertainty handled?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "fair-outcome-comparison-q01" }, { "text": "Which persistence, climatological or operational reference forecast provides a meaningful comparison at the same lead time?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "fair-outcome-comparison-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "performance-and-correction", "name": "Performance and correction", "description": "Interprets verification results for the forecast's intended use.", "findings": [ { "id": "conditional-skill-and-remediation", "name": "Conditional skill and remediation", "description": "Record performance by relevant conditions and the evidence required to change the forecasting process.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which metrics assess bias, error, probabilistic calibration or event detection, and how do results vary by lead time, season, region and event rarity?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "conditional-skill-and-remediation-q01" }, { "text": "What demonstrated performance failure warrants recalibration, revised communication, a method change or a restriction on use?", "kind": "action", "id": "conditional-skill-and-remediation-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "evidence-and-external-alignment", "name": "Evidence and external alignment", "description": "What the world already says about this thing, gathered so the model can be checked against it.", "rationale": "A model that cannot be lined up against existing standards, identifiers and practice cannot be adopted by anyone who already uses them.", "layers": [ { "id": "reported-evidence", "name": "Reported evidence", "description": "Findings from the breadth pass, kept separate from the structural claims.", "findings": [ { "id": "evidence-confidence-notes", "name": "Check these first", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "This describes weather forecasting as an activity, consistent with ACT.ACT, rather than a forecast document or the broader discipline of meteorology.", "Forecast-horizon terminology varies; seasonal products concern statistical tendencies rather than precise daily weather.", "Standards are named from recall; applicable editions, provisions, and national implementation require verification." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-confidence-notes-q01", "text": "Which of these check these first hold for the sense of weather forecasting this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-kinds", "name": "Kinds and varieties", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "Nowcasting", "Short-range forecasting", "Medium-range forecasting", "Extended-range forecasting", "Seasonal forecasting", "Impact-based forecasting" ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-kinds-q01", "text": "Which of these kinds and varieties hold for the sense of weather forecasting this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-standards-and-regulation", "name": "Standards and regulation", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "World Meteorological Organization Technical Regulations (WMO-No. 49): international meteorological practices and service requirements.", "World Meteorological Organization Manual on Codes (WMO-No. 306): standardized representations and exchange formats for meteorological information, including GRIB and BUFR.", "International Civil Aviation Organization Annex 3: meteorological service requirements for international air navigation." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-standards-and-regulation-q01", "text": "Which of these standards and regulation hold for the sense of weather forecasting this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-real-world-use", "name": "Real-world use", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "Issuing warnings and supporting emergency preparation for hazardous weather.", "Planning aviation, maritime navigation, and surface transport.", "Scheduling agricultural operations and managing irrigation and frost risk.", "Predicting electricity demand and weather-dependent renewable generation.", "Planning construction, outdoor work, and public events." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-real-world-use-q01", "text": "Which of these real-world use hold for the sense of weather forecasting this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-measurements", "name": "Typical measurements", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ { "quantity": "Forecast lead time", "typical_range": "Minutes to months, depending on the product; longer leads generally describe aggregated conditions rather than specific local weather events", "unit": "minutes, hours, days, or months" }, { "quantity": "Forecast probability of a specified event", "typical_range": "0-100", "unit": "%" }, { "quantity": "Brier score for a binary probabilistic forecast", "typical_range": "0-1; lower is better", "unit": "dimensionless" }, { "quantity": "Root mean square error of temperature forecasts", "typical_range": "Nonnegative; useful benchmarks depend on location, season, lead time, and verification data", "unit": "K or °C for temperature differences" } ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-measurements-q01", "text": "Which of these typical measurements hold for the sense of weather forecasting this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-failure-modes-and-hazards", "name": "Failure modes and hazards", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "Incomplete or inaccurate observations produce errors in estimated initial atmospheric conditions.", "Model resolution and approximations miss or misrepresent local terrain effects, convection, clouds, and precipitation.", "Chaotic error growth limits detailed prediction as lead time increases.", "Poorly calibrated probabilities or underdispersive ensembles understate uncertainty.", "Missed events, false alarms, and ambiguous communication can cause harmful decisions or reduce trust in warnings." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-failure-modes-and-hazards-q01", "text": "Which of these failure modes and hazards hold for the sense of weather forecasting this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-regional-variation", "name": "Regional variation", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "Observation coverage and computing resources vary, affecting forecast quality and service availability.", "Dominant hazards differ across tropical, polar, coastal, mountainous, and continental regions.", "Warning thresholds, terminology, units, and issuing authorities differ by jurisdiction." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-regional-variation-q01", "text": "Which of these regional variation hold for the sense of weather forecasting this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-neighbours", "name": "Neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ { "name": "Meteorology", "difference": "Meteorology studies the atmosphere broadly; weather forecasting specifically estimates future atmospheric conditions." }, { "name": "Weather observation", "difference": "Observation measures existing or past conditions; forecasting estimates conditions that have not yet occurred." }, { "name": "Numerical weather prediction", "difference": "Numerical weather prediction computes atmospheric evolution with models; forecasting also includes interpretation, statistical processing, communication, and other methods." }, { "name": "Climate projection", "difference": "Climate projection describes possible climate evolution under specified forcing scenarios; weather forecasting predicts forthcoming conditions from the current atmospheric state." }, { "name": "Weather warning", "difference": "A warning communicates an anticipated hazard and its significance; a forecast can describe weather without issuing a warning." } ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-neighbours-q01", "text": "Which of these neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart hold for the sense of weather forecasting this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "openQuestions": [ "Where should this registry place the boundary between weather forecasting, subseasonal prediction and seasonal climate outlooks?", "Should retrospective forecasts and reforecasts be instances of this activity with a distinct mode, or belong to a neighbouring evaluation model?", "Which authoritative definitions should govern precipitation probability and area-based event probabilities across providers?", "Which verification metrics, reference forecasts and minimum evidence requirements are appropriate for each intended use and rare-event category?", "Should provider-specific watches and warnings remain linked products, or should their issuance activities have separate registered models?" ], "statistics": { "bundles": 7, "layers": 13, "findings": 20, "questions": 32 } }, "draft": { "generator": "vr.draft.v3", "status": "draft-generated", "researched": false, "archetype": "abstract concept", "method": "Written from the archetype playbook - what this kind of thing needs beyond identity and provenance - and from the structure that recurred across 6,333 models already researched by two engines. Applied to this entry by rule. No source was read for this thing and no claim here is researched. This entry carries no facets of its own, so they were inferred from its domain - a guess about a whole domain applied to one thing.", "facetsInferred": true, "nextPass": "A researcher replaces this draft with a sourced specification. Treat every sentence below as a proposal to argue with.", "purpose": "Give an agent a durable, checkable way to recognise a weather forecasting, record what state it is in, and decide what may be done with it.", "whatItIs": "Enable an agent to identify a weather forecasting activity, assess the fitness and uncertainty of its predictions, and determine how those predictions may be issued, revised or used.", "characteristics": { "substance": "activity", "origin": "conceptual", "agency": "inert" }, "whatYouCanDoWithIt": [ "observed and measured" ], "distinguishingFeatures": [ "Names folded into this entry, which a task may need to split apart again: nowcasting, Special weather statement, SPECI, special weather report, tropical cyclone forecasting, Ensemble forecasting, Sailing weather prediction, Terminal aerodrome forecast, Precipitation Nowcast.", "9 finer distinctions are held as aliases rather than separate entries, because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it.", "Described in 73 Wikipedia languages, which is a measure of how widely the thing is known, not of how important it is." ], "openQuestionsForResearch": [ "Which of the bundles below does a real task actually need, and which are ceremony?", "What does this thing have that the facets do not capture at all?", "Which neighbouring kind is most often confused with a weather forecasting, and on what evidence are they told apart?" ], "whatItIsMadeOf": "something that happens over time", "physicalCharacter": [ "Does nothing on its own; everything it does, something else did to it.", "These come from the domain this entry sits in rather than from the entry itself, so treat them as a first guess about the whole domain applied to one thing." ], "whatCanBeDoneWithIt": [ "observe it, measure it, record its state" ], "howItIsRecognised": [ "Nothing to see. What is recognised is an instance of it, and which instances count is exactly what is argued about." ], "relatedModels": [ { "relation": "covers", "note": "Finer kinds folded into this entry because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it. Each is a model waiting to be split out when one does.", "targets": [ "nowcasting", "Special weather statement", "SPECI", "special weather report", "tropical cyclone forecasting", "Ensemble forecasting", "Sailing weather prediction", "Terminal aerodrome forecast", "Precipitation Nowcast" ] } ], "standing": "Described in 73 Wikipedia languages, which measures how widely it is written about rather than how important or how common it is. 9 finer distinctions are held inside this entry as names rather than as separate models.", "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "identity-and-classification", "name": "Identity, naming and classification", "description": "How an agent tells one weather forecasting from another, and a weather forecasting from things that resemble it.", "rationale": "Recognition comes before every other claim. Without stable identity nothing else in the model can be trusted to be about the same thing twice.", "layers": [ { "id": "naming-and-identifiers", "name": "Names and identifiers", "description": "The names this thing goes by and the identifiers that survive translation and time.", "findings": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases", "name": "Preferred name, aliases and local names", "description": "Which name to use, which names mean the same thing, and which merely sound similar.", "questions": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the name of a weather forecasting, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the name of a weather forecasting, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the name of a weather forecasting is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers", "name": "Stable identifiers and external keys", "description": "Identifiers that keep pointing at this kind of thing across systems and languages.", "questions": [ { "id": "stable-identifiers-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an identifier for a weather forecasting, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an identifier for a weather forecasting, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an identifier for a weather forecasting is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "classification-and-granularity", "name": "Classification and granularity", "description": "Where a weather forecasting sits among kinds, and how finely a task needs to cut it.", "findings": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents", "name": "Kind, parents and neighbouring kinds", "description": "The classes this thing belongs to and the ones it is next to.", "questions": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the kind of a weather forecasting, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the kind of a weather forecasting, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the kind of a weather forecasting is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features", "name": "Distinguishing features", "description": "What separates a weather forecasting from the things most often confused with it.", "questions": [ { "id": "distinguishing-features-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes what distinguishes a weather forecasting, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about what distinguishes a weather forecasting, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once what distinguishes a weather forecasting is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "state-and-lifecycle", "name": "State and lifecycle", "description": "The states a weather forecasting passes through and the events that move it between them.", "rationale": "Most decisions about a thing depend on what state it is in now, which is a claim with a time on it, not a property.", "layers": [ { "id": "lifecycle-stages", "name": "Lifecycle stages", "description": "From coming into existence to ceasing to be one of these.", "findings": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions", "name": "Stages and transitions", "description": "The stages worth naming and what moves a weather forecasting between them.", "questions": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the lifecycle of a weather forecasting, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the lifecycle of a weather forecasting, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the lifecycle of a weather forecasting is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "observations-and-status", "name": "Observations and current status", "description": "What is observed about a weather forecasting, how often and by whom.", "findings": [ { "id": "observation-record", "name": "Observation record", "description": "How an observation of a weather forecasting is recorded so that it can be superseded rather than overwritten.", "questions": [ { "id": "observation-record-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an observation of a weather forecasting, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an observation of a weather forecasting, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an observation of a weather forecasting is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "process-and-outcome", "name": "Process, inputs and outcome", "description": "How a weather forecasting proceeds, what it needs and what it leaves behind.", "rationale": "An activity is known by its steps and its results, and both have to be recordable while it is still running.", "layers": [ { "id": "steps-and-sequence", "name": "Steps and sequence", "description": "The steps of a weather forecasting, their order and what may run in parallel.", "findings": [ { "id": "steps-and-preconditions", "name": "Steps, preconditions and completion", "description": "What has to be true before each step of a weather forecasting and what marks it done.", "questions": [ { "id": "steps-and-preconditions-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes a step of a weather forecasting, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "steps-and-preconditions-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about a step of a weather forecasting, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "steps-and-preconditions-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once a step of a weather forecasting is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "inputs-and-results", "name": "Inputs, resources and results", "description": "What a weather forecasting consumes and what it produces.", "findings": [ { "id": "inputs-and-outputs", "name": "Inputs, outputs and side effects", "description": "The resources a weather forecasting takes and the results it leaves, wanted or not.", "questions": [ { "id": "inputs-and-outputs-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the inputs and results of a weather forecasting, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "inputs-and-outputs-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the inputs and results of a weather forecasting, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "inputs-and-outputs-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the inputs and results of a weather forecasting is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "definitions-in-contest", "name": "Definitions and who holds them", "description": "What weather forecasting is taken to mean, and by whom.", "rationale": "When a field disagrees about a concept, the disagreement is the content. A model that picks one definition silently destroys the information.", "layers": [ { "id": "competing-definitions", "name": "Competing definitions", "description": "The main readings and the traditions behind them.", "findings": [ { "id": "definition-map", "name": "Definitions and their holders", "description": "Each definition with the school or body that holds it.", "questions": [ { "id": "definition-map-q01", "text": "Which definitions of weather forecasting are in use, and which tradition or body holds each?", "kind": "definition" }, { "id": "definition-map-q02", "text": "What turns on the difference between them in practice?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "operationalisation", "name": "Operationalisation", "description": "How it is measured or applied when it has to be.", "findings": [ { "id": "operational-record", "name": "Measures and proxies", "description": "Instruments and indicators used to stand in for it.", "questions": [ { "id": "operational-record-q01", "text": "How is weather forecasting operationalised or measured in practice, and by what instrument?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "id": "operational-record-q02", "text": "What does that operationalisation leave out, and when does that matter?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "instances-and-use", "name": "Instances, use and consequence", "description": "What counts as an instance of weather forecasting and what follows from calling something that.", "rationale": "Applying a concept is an act with consequences, so a model must say what the label licenses and what it does not.", "layers": [ { "id": "instances", "name": "What counts as an instance", "description": "Clear cases, borderline cases and non-cases.", "findings": [ { "id": "instance-tests", "name": "Tests for an instance", "description": "What would settle whether something falls under it.", "questions": [ { "id": "instance-tests-q01", "text": "What would settle whether something is an instance of weather forecasting?", "kind": "boundary" }, { "id": "instance-tests-q02", "text": "Which borderline cases are argued about, and on what grounds?", "kind": "definition" } ] } ] }, { "id": "consequence", "name": "Consequence of application", "description": "Rights, duties or decisions that follow from the label.", "findings": [ { "id": "consequence-record", "name": "What the label licenses", "description": "What an agent may do once something is classified this way.", "questions": [ { "id": "consequence-record-q01", "text": "What follows practically once something is treated as weather forecasting?", "kind": "action" }, { "id": "consequence-record-q02", "text": "What must an agent not infer from the label alone?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "provenance-and-evidence", "name": "Provenance, evidence and time", "description": "Where every claim about a weather forecasting came from and when it held.", "rationale": "A claim without a source and a time cannot be superseded, only overwritten, and an agent that overwrites loses the ability to explain itself.", "layers": [ { "id": "source-and-authority", "name": "Source and authority", "description": "Who said it, on what evidence, and how strongly.", "findings": [ { "id": "claim-provenance", "name": "Claim provenance and confidence", "description": "The authority behind each claim about a weather forecasting and how confident it is.", "questions": [ { "id": "claim-provenance-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes a claim about a weather forecasting, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about a claim about a weather forecasting, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once a claim about a weather forecasting is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "time-and-versions", "name": "Time, versions and supersession", "description": "When a claim was true, when it was learnt, and what replaced it.", "findings": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession", "name": "Validity period and supersession", "description": "How an old claim about a weather forecasting is retired without being erased.", "questions": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the validity of a claim about a weather forecasting, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the validity of a claim about a weather forecasting, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the validity of a claim about a weather forecasting is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "statistics": { "bundles": 6, "layers": 12, "findings": 14, "questions": 38 } } } }