{ "model": { "rank": 5031, "code": "thing-q186290", "model_id": "vr.tr.correlation", "name": "correlation", "purpose": "Let an agent report correlations with their coefficient, sample and method, and never present a correlation as evidence of cause without further grounds.", "family": "Thing Registry", "category": "Cross-cutting context", "status": "research-draft", "kind": "thing", "plane": "XCT", "domain": "XCT.REL", "industry": "", "version": "", "url": "/models/thing/q186290/", "tier": 2, "score": 70, "payload": { "layer": "wikidata", "aliases": [ "Escherichia coli adhesins", "Bordetella virulence factors", "environmental factor", "information overload", "environmental stressor", "risk factor", "context effect", "limiting factor", "environmental gradient", "Outrage factor", "protective factor", "genetic risk score", "pre-existing condition", "information fatigue", "watershed stressor", "patient's terrain", "heart disease risk factors", "biosecurity risk factor", "Occupational risk factor", "comorbidity", "virulence factor", "risk factors for breast cancer", "senescence", "cardiovascular disease risk factor", "causes of mental disorders", "occupational risk factor", "disease susceptibility", "mental distress", "etiological factor", "pollution gradient", "future orientation", "stabilisation", "superinfection", "Conditions comorbid to autism spectrum disorders", "immunosenescence", "negligible senescence", "plant senescence", "Aging in dogs", "aging brain", "Impact of alcohol on aging" ], "aliasCount": 81, "merged": 84, "knownIn": 70, "facets": null, "markers": [], "lexicalClass": "", "senseRank": null, "alsoRegisteredAs": "vr.tr.correlation", "source": { "dataset": "wikidata", "item": "Q186290", "url": "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186290", "license": "CC0 1.0" } }, "research": { "vercy": "1.0-draft", "publication": { "status": "research-draft", "adjudicationStatus": "unreviewed", "publishableCanonical": false, "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T04:35:51Z", "providers": [ "Claude" ], "breadth": "written by Claude from model knowledge without web access - no source was read, every claim is a lead to verify", "pass": 2, "wave": 1, "engine": "claude" }, "metaModel": { "id": "THING-Q186290", "registryId": "vr.tr.correlation", "name": "correlation", "version": "0.2.0-wave.1", "entryKind": "thing", "family": "Thing Registry", "domain": [ "XCT.REL" ], "status": "research-draft" }, "canonicalUrl": "https://ver.cy/models/thing/q186290/", "model": { "registry_id": "vr.tr.correlation", "name": "correlation", "purpose": "Let an agent report correlations with their coefficient, sample and method, and never present a correlation as evidence of cause without further grounds.", "definition": "In statistics, a relationship between two variables in which they tend to vary together, and the coefficient that measures the strength and direction of that relationship.", "what_it_is_for": "Describing association between variables, as a first step in analysis and prediction.", "affordances": [ "compute it, with Pearson, Spearman or other coefficients", "test it, for statistical significance", "visualise it, with a scatter plot", "misread it as causation, which is the main error" ], "distinguishing_features": [ "Measures association, not causation", "Pearson measures linear association; rank correlations measure monotonic association", "Sensitive to outliers and to restricted ranges", "Spurious correlations arise from confounders and chance" ], "appearance": "A scatter of points trending up or down, and a coefficient between -1 and 1.", "visual_identification": [ "A coefficient r or rho between -1 and 1", "A scatter plot with a visible trend", "Phrases such as \"associated with\" or \"linked to\" in reports" ], "physical_properties": [ { "quantity": "coefficient range", "typical_range": "-1 to 1", "unit": "dimensionless", "note": "0 means no linear association" } ], "families_and_kinds": [ "Pearson product-moment correlation", "Spearman and Kendall rank correlations", "partial and autocorrelation", "correlation matrices" ], "related_models": [ { "relation": "is confused with", "target": "causation", "why": "the classic error" }, { "relation": "is a kind of", "target": "statistical measure", "why": "descriptive statistics" }, { "relation": "is related to", "target": "regression", "why": "regression models the relationship" }, { "relation": "is affected by", "target": "confounding variable", "why": "a third variable can produce the association" } ], "identifiers": [], "standards_and_regulation": [ "ISO 3534-1 statistics vocabulary", "Reporting guidelines such as STROBE for observational studies" ], "failure_modes_and_hazards": [ "Inferring causation from correlation", "Outliers producing or hiding a correlation", "Multiple comparisons producing chance correlations", "Ecological fallacy when group correlations are applied to individuals" ], "in_scope": [], "out_of_scope": [], "characteristics": [] }, "sources": [], "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "measure", "name": "Measure", "description": "Which coefficient and what it means.", "rationale": "Different coefficients answer different questions.", "layers": [ { "id": "coefficient", "name": "Coefficient", "description": "Pearson, Spearman, Kendall.", "findings": [ { "id": "coefficient-finding", "name": "Coefficient used", "description": "The coefficient and its value.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which coefficient was used, and what is its value?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "text": "Is the relationship linear, or only monotonic?", "kind": "definition" } ] } ] }, { "id": "uncertainty", "name": "Uncertainty", "description": "Confidence interval and significance.", "findings": [ { "id": "uncertainty-finding", "name": "Uncertainty", "description": "Interval, p-value and sample size.", "questions": [ { "text": "What is the confidence interval and sample size?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "text": "How many comparisons were made?", "kind": "measurement" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "data", "name": "Data", "description": "What was measured, on whom.", "rationale": "Correlations are only as good as the data behind them.", "layers": [ { "id": "sample", "name": "Sample", "description": "Population and selection.", "findings": [ { "id": "sample-finding", "name": "Sample description", "description": "The sample and how it was chosen.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which population does the sample represent?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Could selection have created the association?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "quality", "name": "Data quality", "description": "Outliers and range.", "findings": [ { "id": "quality-finding", "name": "Data checks", "description": "Checks for outliers and range restriction.", "questions": [ { "text": "Are there outliers driving the result?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "text": "Is the range of either variable restricted?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "interpretation", "name": "Interpretation", "description": "What can be concluded.", "rationale": "The limit of correlation is the main thing to communicate.", "layers": [ { "id": "causation", "name": "Causation", "description": "Whether cause is supported.", "findings": [ { "id": "causation-finding", "name": "Causal evidence", "description": "Evidence beyond the correlation.", "questions": [ { "text": "What evidence beyond correlation supports a causal claim?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Which confounders were considered?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "level", "name": "Level", "description": "Group or individual.", "findings": [ { "id": "level-finding", "name": "Level of inference", "description": "Whether conclusions apply to individuals.", "questions": [ { "text": "Does the correlation apply to individuals or only to groups?", "kind": "boundary" }, { "text": "How should that be stated?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "reporting", "name": "Reporting", "description": "How to communicate it.", "rationale": "Language about correlation is often stronger than the evidence.", "layers": [ { "id": "wording", "name": "Wording", "description": "Associated with vs causes.", "findings": [ { "id": "wording-finding", "name": "Wording used", "description": "The wording and its strength.", "questions": [ { "text": "Does the wording match the strength of evidence?", "kind": "boundary" }, { "text": "What wording should an agent use?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] }, { "id": "replication", "name": "Replication", "description": "Has it been found again.", "findings": [ { "id": "replication-finding", "name": "Replication status", "description": "Other studies finding the same.", "questions": [ { "text": "Has this correlation been replicated?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Were there failed replications?", "kind": "provenance" } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "openQuestions": [ "Should each correlation coefficient be a separate entry?", "How should agents phrase findings based only on correlation?", "The registry entry has merged aliases such as risk factor and virulence factor; should they be split off?" ], "statistics": { "bundles": 4, "layers": 8, "findings": 8, "questions": 16 } }, "draft": { "generator": "vr.draft.v3", "status": "draft-generated", "researched": false, "archetype": "abstract concept", "method": "Written from the archetype playbook - what this kind of thing needs beyond identity and provenance - and from the structure that recurred across 6,333 models already researched by two engines. Applied to this entry by rule. No source was read for this thing and no claim here is researched. This entry carries no facets of its own, so they were inferred from its domain - a guess about a whole domain applied to one thing.", "facetsInferred": true, "nextPass": "A researcher replaces this draft with a sourced specification. Treat every sentence below as a proposal to argue with.", "purpose": "Give an agent a durable, checkable way to recognise a correlation, record what state it is in, and decide what may be done with it.", "whatItIs": "Let an agent report correlations with their coefficient, sample and method, and never present a correlation as evidence of cause without further grounds.", "characteristics": { "substance": "abstract", "origin": "conceptual", "agency": "inert" }, "whatYouCanDoWithIt": [ "observed and measured" ], "distinguishingFeatures": [ "Names folded into this entry, which a task may need to split apart again: Escherichia coli adhesins, Bordetella virulence factors, environmental factor, information overload, environmental stressor, risk factor, context effect, limiting factor, environmental gradient, Outrage factor, protective factor, genetic risk score.", "84 finer distinctions are held as aliases rather than separate entries, because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it.", "Described in 70 Wikipedia languages, which is a measure of how widely the thing is known, not of how important it is." ], "openQuestionsForResearch": [ "Which of the bundles below does a real task actually need, and which are ceremony?", "What does this thing have that the facets do not capture at all?", "Which neighbouring kind is most often confused with a correlation, and on what evidence are they told apart?" ], "whatItIsMadeOf": "an abstraction with no physical instance", "physicalCharacter": [ "Does nothing on its own; everything it does, something else did to it.", "These come from the domain this entry sits in rather than from the entry itself, so treat them as a first guess about the whole domain applied to one thing." ], "whatCanBeDoneWithIt": [ "observe it, measure it, record its state" ], "howItIsRecognised": [ "Nothing to see. What is recognised is an instance of it, and which instances count is exactly what is argued about." ], "relatedModels": [ { "relation": "covers", "note": "Finer kinds folded into this entry because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it. Each is a model waiting to be split out when one does.", "targets": [ "Escherichia coli adhesins", "Bordetella virulence factors", "environmental factor", "information overload", "environmental stressor", "risk factor", "context effect", "limiting factor", "environmental gradient", "Outrage factor", "protective factor", "genetic risk score" ] } ], "standing": "Described in 70 Wikipedia languages, which measures how widely it is written about rather than how important or how common it is. 84 finer distinctions are held inside this entry as names rather than as separate models.", "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "identity-and-classification", "name": "Identity, naming and classification", "description": "How an agent tells one correlation from another, and a correlation from things that resemble it.", "rationale": "Recognition comes before every other claim. Without stable identity nothing else in the model can be trusted to be about the same thing twice.", "layers": [ { "id": "naming-and-identifiers", "name": "Names and identifiers", "description": "The names this thing goes by and the identifiers that survive translation and time.", "findings": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases", "name": "Preferred name, aliases and local names", "description": "Which name to use, which names mean the same thing, and which merely sound similar.", "questions": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the name of a correlation, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the name of a correlation, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the name of a correlation is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers", "name": "Stable identifiers and external keys", "description": "Identifiers that keep pointing at this kind of thing across systems and languages.", "questions": [ { "id": "stable-identifiers-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an identifier for a correlation, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an identifier for a correlation, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an identifier for a correlation is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "classification-and-granularity", "name": "Classification and granularity", "description": "Where a correlation sits among kinds, and how finely a task needs to cut it.", "findings": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents", "name": "Kind, parents and neighbouring kinds", "description": "The classes this thing belongs to and the ones it is next to.", "questions": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the kind of a correlation, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the kind of a correlation, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the kind of a correlation is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features", "name": "Distinguishing features", "description": "What separates a correlation from the things most often confused with it.", "questions": [ { "id": "distinguishing-features-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes what distinguishes a correlation, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about what distinguishes a correlation, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once what distinguishes a correlation is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "state-and-lifecycle", "name": "State and lifecycle", "description": "The states a correlation passes through and the events that move it between them.", "rationale": "Most decisions about a thing depend on what state it is in now, which is a claim with a time on it, not a property.", "layers": [ { "id": "lifecycle-stages", "name": "Lifecycle stages", "description": "From coming into existence to ceasing to be one of these.", "findings": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions", "name": "Stages and transitions", "description": "The stages worth naming and what moves a correlation between them.", "questions": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the lifecycle of a correlation, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the lifecycle of a correlation, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the lifecycle of a correlation is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "observations-and-status", "name": "Observations and current status", "description": "What is observed about a correlation, how often and by whom.", "findings": [ { "id": "observation-record", "name": "Observation record", "description": "How an observation of a correlation is recorded so that it can be superseded rather than overwritten.", "questions": [ { "id": "observation-record-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an observation of a correlation, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an observation of a correlation, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an observation of a correlation is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "definitions-in-contest", "name": "Definitions and who holds them", "description": "What correlation is taken to mean, and by whom.", "rationale": "When a field disagrees about a concept, the disagreement is the content. A model that picks one definition silently destroys the information.", "layers": [ { "id": "competing-definitions", "name": "Competing definitions", "description": "The main readings and the traditions behind them.", "findings": [ { "id": "definition-map", "name": "Definitions and their holders", "description": "Each definition with the school or body that holds it.", "questions": [ { "id": "definition-map-q01", "text": "Which definitions of correlation are in use, and which tradition or body holds each?", "kind": "definition" }, { "id": "definition-map-q02", "text": "What turns on the difference between them in practice?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "operationalisation", "name": "Operationalisation", "description": "How it is measured or applied when it has to be.", "findings": [ { "id": "operational-record", "name": "Measures and proxies", "description": "Instruments and indicators used to stand in for it.", "questions": [ { "id": "operational-record-q01", "text": "How is correlation operationalised or measured in practice, and by what instrument?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "id": "operational-record-q02", "text": "What does that operationalisation leave out, and when does that matter?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "instances-and-use", "name": "Instances, use and consequence", "description": "What counts as an instance of correlation and what follows from calling something that.", "rationale": "Applying a concept is an act with consequences, so a model must say what the label licenses and what it does not.", "layers": [ { "id": "instances", "name": "What counts as an instance", "description": "Clear cases, borderline cases and non-cases.", "findings": [ { "id": "instance-tests", "name": "Tests for an instance", "description": "What would settle whether something falls under it.", "questions": [ { "id": "instance-tests-q01", "text": "What would settle whether something is an instance of correlation?", "kind": "boundary" }, { "id": "instance-tests-q02", "text": "Which borderline cases are argued about, and on what grounds?", "kind": "definition" } ] } ] }, { "id": "consequence", "name": "Consequence of application", "description": "Rights, duties or decisions that follow from the label.", "findings": [ { "id": "consequence-record", "name": "What the label licenses", "description": "What an agent may do once something is classified this way.", "questions": [ { "id": "consequence-record-q01", "text": "What follows practically once something is treated as correlation?", "kind": "action" }, { "id": "consequence-record-q02", "text": "What must an agent not infer from the label alone?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "provenance-and-evidence", "name": "Provenance, evidence and time", "description": "Where every claim about a correlation came from and when it held.", "rationale": "A claim without a source and a time cannot be superseded, only overwritten, and an agent that overwrites loses the ability to explain itself.", "layers": [ { "id": "source-and-authority", "name": "Source and authority", "description": "Who said it, on what evidence, and how strongly.", "findings": [ { "id": "claim-provenance", "name": "Claim provenance and confidence", "description": "The authority behind each claim about a correlation and how confident it is.", "questions": [ { "id": "claim-provenance-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes a claim about a correlation, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about a claim about a correlation, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once a claim about a correlation is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "time-and-versions", "name": "Time, versions and supersession", "description": "When a claim was true, when it was learnt, and what replaced it.", "findings": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession", "name": "Validity period and supersession", "description": "How an old claim about a correlation is retired without being erased.", "questions": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the validity of a claim about a correlation, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the validity of a claim about a correlation, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the validity of a claim about a correlation is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "statistics": { "bundles": 5, "layers": 10, "findings": 12, "questions": 32 } } } }