{ "model": { "rank": 9104, "code": "thing-q192311", "model_id": "vr.tr.business-cycle", "name": "business cycle", "purpose": "Let an agent explain business cycles and their phases, relay dating and indicators from official and research bodies, present theories and policy responses with attribution, and route investment decisions to licensed advisers.", "family": "Thing Registry", "category": "Activities and processes", "status": "research-draft", "kind": "thing", "plane": "ACT", "domain": "ACT.PRC", "industry": "", "version": "", "url": "/models/thing/q192311/", "tier": 2, "score": 48, "payload": { "layer": "wikidata", "aliases": [ "Kondratiev wave", "Insurance cycle", "soft landing", "shipping cycle", "economic recovery", "retail life cycle" ], "aliasCount": 6, "merged": 6, "knownIn": 48, "facets": null, "markers": [], "lexicalClass": "", "senseRank": null, "alsoRegisteredAs": null, "source": { "dataset": "wikidata", "item": "Q192311", "url": "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192311", "license": "CC0 1.0" } }, "research": { "vercy": "1.0-draft", "publication": { "status": "research-draft", "adjudicationStatus": "unreviewed", "publishableCanonical": false, "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T20:42:24Z", "providers": [ "Claude" ], "breadth": "written by Claude from model knowledge without web access - no source was read, every claim is a lead to verify", "pass": 2, "wave": 3, "engine": "claude" }, "metaModel": { "id": "THING-Q192311", "registryId": "vr.tr.business-cycle", "name": "business cycle", "version": "0.2.0-wave.3", "entryKind": "thing", "family": "Thing Registry", "domain": [ "ACT.PRC" ], "status": "research-draft" }, "canonicalUrl": "https://ver.cy/models/thing/q192311/", "model": { "registry_id": "vr.tr.business-cycle", "name": "business cycle", "purpose": "Let an agent explain business cycles and their phases, relay dating and indicators from official and research bodies, present theories and policy responses with attribution, and route investment decisions to licensed advisers.", "definition": "The recurring but irregular fluctuation of economic activity around its long-run trend, with phases of expansion, peak, contraction and trough measured by output, employment and other indicators; business cycles are dated by bodies such as the NBER, explained by competing theories, and addressed by monetary and fiscal policy.", "what_it_is_for": "Not applicable; a pattern in economic activity.", "affordances": [ "explain phases and indicators", "relay official cycle dating", "present theories with attribution", "explain policy responses in general terms" ], "distinguishing_features": [ "Recurring but irregular", "Economy-wide fluctuation", "Dated by reference committees", "Subject of competing theories" ], "appearance": "Not visible; a pattern in charts of output and employment.", "visual_identification": [ "Expansion, peak, contraction, trough", "Dated by committees using multiple indicators", "Seasonal patterns and long waves are different concepts" ], "physical_properties": [ { "quantity": "typical length", "typical_range": "about 2-10", "unit": "years", "note": "irregular; varies by economy and era" } ], "families_and_kinds": [ "classical and growth cycles", "recessions and recoveries", "sectoral cycles such as shipping and insurance cycles", "long waves such as Kondratiev waves, a contested concept", "financial cycles" ], "related_models": [ { "relation": "is a kind of", "target": "cyclic process", "why": "in the economy" }, { "relation": "includes", "target": "recession", "why": "the contraction phase" }, { "relation": "is dated by", "target": "National Bureau of Economic Research", "why": "in the United States" }, { "relation": "is addressed by", "target": "monetary policy", "why": "and fiscal policy" } ], "identifiers": [], "standards_and_regulation": [ "Cycle dating methods of the NBER and CEPR", "Statistical standards for national accounts" ], "failure_modes_and_hazards": [ "Predicting turning points with false confidence", "Presenting one theory as fact", "Agents giving investment advice" ], "in_scope": [], "out_of_scope": [], "characteristics": [] }, "sources": [], "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "concept", "name": "Concept", "description": "What a business cycle is.", "rationale": "Definition.", "layers": [ { "id": "phases", "name": "Phases", "description": "Phases.", "findings": [ { "id": "phases-finding", "name": "Phases", "description": "Phases.", "questions": [ { "text": "What are the phases of a business cycle, and how are they defined?", "kind": "definition" }, { "text": "Is the question about the business cycle or a seasonal or long-wave pattern?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "dating", "name": "Dating", "description": "Dating.", "findings": [ { "id": "dating-finding", "name": "Dating", "description": "Dating.", "questions": [ { "text": "How do committees date cycles, and where are the dates published?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Which entry fits recession?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "measure", "name": "Measure", "description": "Indicators.", "rationale": "Data.", "layers": [ { "id": "indicators", "name": "Indicators", "description": "Leading and lagging indicators.", "findings": [ { "id": "indicators-finding", "name": "Indicators", "description": "Indicators.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which indicators track the cycle, and how reliable are leading indicators?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "text": "Which sources are cited?", "kind": "provenance" } ] } ] }, { "id": "forecast", "name": "Forecast", "description": "Forecasting limits.", "findings": [ { "id": "forecast-finding", "name": "Forecast", "description": "Forecast.", "questions": [ { "text": "What is known about the limits of forecasting turning points?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Is the user asking for investment timing, which the model does not give?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "theory", "name": "Theory", "description": "Explanations.", "rationale": "Attribution.", "layers": [ { "id": "theories", "name": "Theories", "description": "Theories.", "findings": [ { "id": "theories-finding", "name": "Theories", "description": "Theories.", "questions": [ { "text": "How do Keynesian, real business cycle, monetarist and other theories explain cycles, with attribution?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Is the presentation neutral?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "policy", "name": "Policy", "description": "Policy responses.", "findings": [ { "id": "policy-finding", "name": "Policy", "description": "Policy.", "questions": [ { "text": "How do monetary and fiscal policy respond to cycles, and how are responses assessed by named institutions?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Which entry fits macroeconomic policy?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "history", "name": "History", "description": "History and teaching.", "rationale": "History.", "layers": [ { "id": "episodes", "name": "Episodes", "description": "Historical cycles.", "findings": [ { "id": "episodes-finding", "name": "Episodes", "description": "Episodes.", "questions": [ { "text": "What are the major historical cycles and crises, and what do studies conclude?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Which references are standard?", "kind": "provenance" } ] } ] }, { "id": "teach", "name": "Teach", "description": "Teaching.", "findings": [ { "id": "teach-finding", "name": "Teach", "description": "Teaching.", "questions": [ { "text": "How are business cycles taught, and which misconceptions arise?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Which entry fits macroeconomics?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "openQuestions": [ "Should recession be the primary entry?", "How should dating committee records be linked?", "The registry entry has merged aliases for sectoral cycles and long waves; should they be split off?" ], "statistics": { "bundles": 4, "layers": 8, "findings": 8, "questions": 16 } }, "draft": { "generator": "vr.draft.v3", "status": "draft-generated", "researched": false, "archetype": "abstract concept", "method": "Written from the archetype playbook - what this kind of thing needs beyond identity and provenance - and from the structure that recurred across 6,333 models already researched by two engines. Applied to this entry by rule. No source was read for this thing and no claim here is researched. This entry carries no facets of its own, so they were inferred from its domain - a guess about a whole domain applied to one thing.", "facetsInferred": true, "nextPass": "A researcher replaces this draft with a sourced specification. Treat every sentence below as a proposal to argue with.", "purpose": "Give an agent a durable, checkable way to recognise a business cycle, record what state it is in, and decide what may be done with it.", "whatItIs": "Let an agent explain business cycles and their phases, relay dating and indicators from official and research bodies, present theories and policy responses with attribution, and route investment decisions to licensed advisers.", "characteristics": { "substance": "activity", "origin": "conceptual", "agency": "inert" }, "whatYouCanDoWithIt": [ "observed and measured" ], "distinguishingFeatures": [ "Names folded into this entry, which a task may need to split apart again: Kondratiev wave, Insurance cycle, soft landing, shipping cycle, economic recovery, retail life cycle.", "6 finer distinctions are held as aliases rather than separate entries, because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it.", "Described in 48 Wikipedia languages, which is a measure of how widely the thing is known, not of how important it is." ], "openQuestionsForResearch": [ "Which of the bundles below does a real task actually need, and which are ceremony?", "What does this thing have that the facets do not capture at all?", "Which neighbouring kind is most often confused with a business cycle, and on what evidence are they told apart?" ], "whatItIsMadeOf": "something that happens over time", "physicalCharacter": [ "Does nothing on its own; everything it does, something else did to it.", "These come from the domain this entry sits in rather than from the entry itself, so treat them as a first guess about the whole domain applied to one thing." ], "whatCanBeDoneWithIt": [ "observe it, measure it, record its state" ], "howItIsRecognised": [ "Nothing to see. What is recognised is an instance of it, and which instances count is exactly what is argued about." ], "relatedModels": [ { "relation": "covers", "note": "Finer kinds folded into this entry because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it. Each is a model waiting to be split out when one does.", "targets": [ "Kondratiev wave", "Insurance cycle", "soft landing", "shipping cycle", "economic recovery", "retail life cycle" ] } ], "standing": "Described in 48 Wikipedia languages, which measures how widely it is written about rather than how important or how common it is. 6 finer distinctions are held inside this entry as names rather than as separate models.", "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "identity-and-classification", "name": "Identity, naming and classification", "description": "How an agent tells one business cycle from another, and a business cycle from things that resemble it.", "rationale": "Recognition comes before every other claim. Without stable identity nothing else in the model can be trusted to be about the same thing twice.", "layers": [ { "id": "naming-and-identifiers", "name": "Names and identifiers", "description": "The names this thing goes by and the identifiers that survive translation and time.", "findings": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases", "name": "Preferred name, aliases and local names", "description": "Which name to use, which names mean the same thing, and which merely sound similar.", "questions": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the name of a business cycle, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the name of a business cycle, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the name of a business cycle is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers", "name": "Stable identifiers and external keys", "description": "Identifiers that keep pointing at this kind of thing across systems and languages.", "questions": [ { "id": "stable-identifiers-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an identifier for a business cycle, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an identifier for a business cycle, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an identifier for a business cycle is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "classification-and-granularity", "name": "Classification and granularity", "description": "Where a business cycle sits among kinds, and how finely a task needs to cut it.", "findings": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents", "name": "Kind, parents and neighbouring kinds", "description": "The classes this thing belongs to and the ones it is next to.", "questions": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the kind of a business cycle, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the kind of a business cycle, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the kind of a business cycle is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features", "name": "Distinguishing features", "description": "What separates a business cycle from the things most often confused with it.", "questions": [ { "id": "distinguishing-features-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes what distinguishes a business cycle, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about what distinguishes a business cycle, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once what distinguishes a business cycle is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "state-and-lifecycle", "name": "State and lifecycle", "description": "The states a business cycle passes through and the events that move it between them.", "rationale": "Most decisions about a thing depend on what state it is in now, which is a claim with a time on it, not a property.", "layers": [ { "id": "lifecycle-stages", "name": "Lifecycle stages", "description": "From coming into existence to ceasing to be one of these.", "findings": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions", "name": "Stages and transitions", "description": "The stages worth naming and what moves a business cycle between them.", "questions": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the lifecycle of a business cycle, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the lifecycle of a business cycle, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the lifecycle of a business cycle is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "observations-and-status", "name": "Observations and current status", "description": "What is observed about a business cycle, how often and by whom.", "findings": [ { "id": "observation-record", "name": "Observation record", "description": "How an observation of a business cycle is recorded so that it can be superseded rather than overwritten.", "questions": [ { "id": "observation-record-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an observation of a business cycle, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an observation of a business cycle, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an observation of a business cycle is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "process-and-outcome", "name": "Process, inputs and outcome", "description": "How a business cycle proceeds, what it needs and what it leaves behind.", "rationale": "An activity is known by its steps and its results, and both have to be recordable while it is still running.", "layers": [ { "id": "steps-and-sequence", "name": "Steps and sequence", "description": "The steps of a business cycle, their order and what may run in parallel.", "findings": [ { "id": "steps-and-preconditions", "name": "Steps, preconditions and completion", "description": "What has to be true before each step of a business cycle and what marks it done.", "questions": [ { "id": "steps-and-preconditions-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes a step of a business cycle, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "steps-and-preconditions-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about a step of a business cycle, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "steps-and-preconditions-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once a step of a business cycle is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "inputs-and-results", "name": "Inputs, resources and results", "description": "What a business cycle consumes and what it produces.", "findings": [ { "id": "inputs-and-outputs", "name": "Inputs, outputs and side effects", "description": "The resources a business cycle takes and the results it leaves, wanted or not.", "questions": [ { "id": "inputs-and-outputs-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the inputs and results of a business cycle, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "inputs-and-outputs-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the inputs and results of a business cycle, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "inputs-and-outputs-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the inputs and results of a business cycle is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "definitions-in-contest", "name": "Definitions and who holds them", "description": "What business cycle is taken to mean, and by whom.", "rationale": "When a field disagrees about a concept, the disagreement is the content. A model that picks one definition silently destroys the information.", "layers": [ { "id": "competing-definitions", "name": "Competing definitions", "description": "The main readings and the traditions behind them.", "findings": [ { "id": "definition-map", "name": "Definitions and their holders", "description": "Each definition with the school or body that holds it.", "questions": [ { "id": "definition-map-q01", "text": "Which definitions of business cycle are in use, and which tradition or body holds each?", "kind": "definition" }, { "id": "definition-map-q02", "text": "What turns on the difference between them in practice?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "operationalisation", "name": "Operationalisation", "description": "How it is measured or applied when it has to be.", "findings": [ { "id": "operational-record", "name": "Measures and proxies", "description": "Instruments and indicators used to stand in for it.", "questions": [ { "id": "operational-record-q01", "text": "How is business cycle operationalised or measured in practice, and by what instrument?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "id": "operational-record-q02", "text": "What does that operationalisation leave out, and when does that matter?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "instances-and-use", "name": "Instances, use and consequence", "description": "What counts as an instance of business cycle and what follows from calling something that.", "rationale": "Applying a concept is an act with consequences, so a model must say what the label licenses and what it does not.", "layers": [ { "id": "instances", "name": "What counts as an instance", "description": "Clear cases, borderline cases and non-cases.", "findings": [ { "id": "instance-tests", "name": "Tests for an instance", "description": "What would settle whether something falls under it.", "questions": [ { "id": "instance-tests-q01", "text": "What would settle whether something is an instance of business cycle?", "kind": "boundary" }, { "id": "instance-tests-q02", "text": "Which borderline cases are argued about, and on what grounds?", "kind": "definition" } ] } ] }, { "id": "consequence", "name": "Consequence of application", "description": "Rights, duties or decisions that follow from the label.", "findings": [ { "id": "consequence-record", "name": "What the label licenses", "description": "What an agent may do once something is classified this way.", "questions": [ { "id": "consequence-record-q01", "text": "What follows practically once something is treated as business cycle?", "kind": "action" }, { "id": "consequence-record-q02", "text": "What must an agent not infer from the label alone?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "provenance-and-evidence", "name": "Provenance, evidence and time", "description": "Where every claim about a business cycle came from and when it held.", "rationale": "A claim without a source and a time cannot be superseded, only overwritten, and an agent that overwrites loses the ability to explain itself.", "layers": [ { "id": "source-and-authority", "name": "Source and authority", "description": "Who said it, on what evidence, and how strongly.", "findings": [ { "id": "claim-provenance", "name": "Claim provenance and confidence", "description": "The authority behind each claim about a business cycle and how confident it is.", "questions": [ { "id": "claim-provenance-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes a claim about a business cycle, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about a claim about a business cycle, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once a claim about a business cycle is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "time-and-versions", "name": "Time, versions and supersession", "description": "When a claim was true, when it was learnt, and what replaced it.", "findings": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession", "name": "Validity period and supersession", "description": "How an old claim about a business cycle is retired without being erased.", "questions": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the validity of a claim about a business cycle, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the validity of a claim about a business cycle, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the validity of a claim about a business cycle is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "statistics": { "bundles": 6, "layers": 12, "findings": 14, "questions": 38 } } } }