{ "model": { "rank": 6090, "code": "thing-q203516", "model_id": "vr.tr.birth-rate", "name": "birth rate", "purpose": "Enable an AI agent to identify a birth-rate measure, assess its demographic meaning and evidence quality, and decide which comparisons, interpretations and uses are justified.", "family": "Thing Registry", "category": "Cross-cutting context", "status": "research-draft", "kind": "thing", "plane": "XCT", "domain": "XCT.QLT", "industry": "", "version": "", "url": "/models/thing/q203516/", "tier": 2, "score": 62, "payload": { "layer": "wikidata", "aliases": [ "sub-replacement fertility" ], "aliasCount": 1, "merged": 1, "knownIn": 62, "facets": null, "markers": [], "lexicalClass": "", "senseRank": null, "alsoRegisteredAs": null, "source": { "dataset": "wikidata", "item": "Q203516", "url": "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q203516", "license": "CC0 1.0" } }, "research": { "vercy": "1.0-draft", "publication": { "status": "research-draft", "adjudicationStatus": "unreviewed", "publishableCanonical": false, "generatedAt": "2026-09-07T11:31:56Z", "providers": [ "Codex", "Grok" ], "missingProviders": [], "pass": 2, "cost": { "grok": { "usd": 0.00799408, "turns": 1, "seconds": 66.6, "error": null }, "codex": { "seconds": 74.1, "error": "Reading additional input from stdin...\nOpenAI Codex v0.153.3\n--------\nworkdir: R:\\02_PROJECTS\\02_Meta_Models_Platforms\\Ver.cy\\current\\thing-registry-backlog\nmodel: gpt-6-astra\nprovider: openai\napproval: never\nsandbox: read-only\nreasoning effort: none\nreasoning summaries: none\nsession id: 01a07b9f-4856-7a83-927a-49b33229961c\n--------\nuser\nYou are drafting a Vercy meta-model for one registered thing. Answer as JSON only, no prose around it.\n\nThing: birth rate\nRegistry id: vr.tr.birth-rate\nPlane / domain: XCT / XCT.QLT\nRegistry definition: (none recorded)\nNames folded into this entry: (none)\n\nA V" } } }, "metaModel": { "id": "THING-Q203516", "registryId": "vr.tr.birth-rate", "name": "birth rate", "version": "0.1.0-research.1", "entryKind": "thing", "family": "Thing Registry", "domain": [ "XCT.QLT" ], "status": "research-draft" }, "canonicalUrl": "https://ver.cy/models/thing/q203516/", "model": { "registry_id": "vr.tr.birth-rate", "name": "birth rate", "purpose": "Enable an AI agent to identify a birth-rate measure, assess its demographic meaning and evidence quality, and decide which comparisons, interpretations and uses are justified.", "definition": "The crude birth rate is the number of live births occurring in a defined population during a calendar year, expressed per 1,000 persons of the mid-year population, as used in official vital statistics.", "scope_statement": "This model owns birth rate as a population-level measure relating live births to a specified population or exposure over a stated period, including its definition, calculation, uncertainty and permitted interpretation; an unqualified label must not silently substitute for a defined measure.", "in_scope": [ "The exact birth-rate measure and its distinction from related fertility measures", "Live-birth numerator, population denominator, time period and geographic coverage", "Observed, estimated or projected values and their calculation", "Registration completeness, estimation uncertainty and revision history", "Comparability, demographic context and conditions for responsible use" ], "out_of_scope": [ "Individual pregnancy, childbirth and clinical outcomes", "Personal reproductive intentions and fertility treatment", "Death rates, migration rates and total population growth as independent measures", "Complete fertility schedules and reproductive histories", "Design and evaluation of population policies or maternity services" ], "distinguishing_features": [ "A birth count becomes a birth rate only when related to an explicit population or exposure and time interval.", "A crude birth rate uses the total population as its denominator; a general fertility rate uses a defined population of women of reproductive age.", "A total fertility rate summarizes age-specific fertility rates as births per woman; it is not live births per total population per year.", "Birth rate concerns live births; a measure combining live births and stillbirths has a different event boundary.", "Birth rate does not measure population growth, which also depends on deaths and migration." ], "characteristics": [ { "name": "Measure identity", "kind": "category", "unit_or_values": "Crude birth rate; another explicitly defined birth-rate measure; unresolved label", "why_it_matters": "Determines what the value means and prevents substitution of a different fertility indicator." }, { "name": "Rate value and scale", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Live births per specified population or exposure unit per stated interval; annual crude birth rate commonly uses 1,000 population", "why_it_matters": "A number is interpretable only with its denominator, multiplier and time basis." }, { "name": "Live-birth numerator", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Number of live births, with event definition and inclusion rules", "why_it_matters": "Clarifies whether the rate counts infants born alive, deliveries or another event." }, { "name": "Population denominator", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Population count or person-time, with eligibility rules, reference date and estimation method", "why_it_matters": "Determines the population to which births are related and whether numerator and denominator align." }, { "name": "Reference period", "kind": "category", "unit_or_values": "Calendar year or another explicit interval, with any annualization stated", "why_it_matters": "Separates the period being measured from publication date and supports valid temporal comparisons." }, { "name": "Population and territory", "kind": "relation", "unit_or_values": "Referenced geographic boundary and population, including residence or occurrence basis", "why_it_matters": "Prevents births occurring in a territory from being confused with births to its residents." }, { "name": "Evidence status", "kind": "state", "unit_or_values": "Registered, survey-estimated, model-estimated or projected; provisional, revised or final", "why_it_matters": "Distinguishes measured events from estimates and future scenarios." }, { "name": "Evidence quality", "kind": "state", "unit_or_values": "Documented completeness, uncertainty, suppression and comparability limitations", "why_it_matters": "Controls how confidently an agent may report a value or interpret a difference." } ], "affordances": [ "Identify the measure behind a birth-rate label and request missing numerator or denominator definitions.", "Calculate or verify a rate when compatible births, population exposure and scaling information are available.", "Compare populations or periods after checking measure definitions, boundaries and evidence methods.", "Flag changes that may reflect population composition, registration practices or denominator revisions.", "Supply a qualified demographic input to planning while preserving uncertainty and interpretation limits." ] }, "sources": [ { "id": "un-principles-vital-stats", "title": "Principles and Recommendations for a Vital Statistics System, Revision 3", "url": "https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/standmeth/principles/M19Rev3en.pdf", "what_it_supports": "UN statistical definition of live birth and of crude birth rate as live births per 1,000 mid-year population; the international vital-statistics frame that national offices follow.", "url_status": "live" }, { "id": "oecd-glossary-cbr", "title": "OECD Glossary of Statistical Terms: Crude birth rate", "url": "", "what_it_supports": "OECD wording of crude birth rate and its distinction from fertility rates used in comparative social statistics.", "url_status": "dead" }, { "id": "who-gho-cbr", "title": "WHO Global Health Observatory: Crude birth rate", "url": "https://www.who.int/data/gho/indicator-metadata-registry/imr-details/1100", "what_it_supports": "WHO indicator definition, typical country ranges, and use of CBR in health-system and population monitoring.", "url_status": "live" }, { "id": "world-bank-sp-dyn-cbrt-in", "title": "World Bank World Development Indicators: Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people) (SP.DYN.CBRT.IN)", "url": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CBRT.IN", "what_it_supports": "The widely cited country-year series and the SP.DYN.CBRT.IN identifier used in development statistics.", "url_status": "live" } ], "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "birth-rate-identity", "name": "Birth-rate identity", "description": "Establishes which demographic quantity a reported birth rate represents.", "rationale": "Birth rate is easily confused with birth counts and fertility indicators that have different denominators.", "layers": [ { "id": "indicator-definition", "name": "Indicator definition", "description": "Resolves the label into an explicit demographic measure.", "findings": [ { "id": "identify-rate-family", "name": "Identify the rate family", "description": "Record whether the measure is a crude birth rate or another explicitly defined indicator.", "questions": [ { "text": "What exact measure does the publisher mean by birth rate?", "kind": "definition", "id": "identify-rate-family-q01" }, { "text": "Does the denominator represent the total population, a reproductive-age population or another exposure?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "identify-rate-family-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "live-birth-boundary", "name": "Live-birth boundary", "description": "Determines which events enter the numerator.", "findings": [ { "id": "define-counted-births", "name": "Define counted births", "description": "Record the operational live-birth definition and whether counts refer to infants or deliveries.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which live-birth definition and inclusion rules does the source apply?", "kind": "definition", "id": "define-counted-births-q01" }, { "text": "Are multiple-born infants counted separately, and are stillbirths excluded?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "define-counted-births-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "population-time-and-calculation", "name": "Population, time and calculation", "description": "Aligns the births, population exposure and reporting interval used to produce the rate.", "rationale": "A plausible value can still be invalid if its numerator and denominator describe different populations or periods.", "layers": [ { "id": "territory-and-residence", "name": "Territory and residence", "description": "Defines the population and geographic assignment of births.", "findings": [ { "id": "align-births-and-population", "name": "Align births and population", "description": "Record territorial boundaries and residence or occurrence rules for both sides of the calculation.", "questions": [ { "text": "Are births assigned by maternal residence, place of occurrence or another rule?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "align-births-and-population-q01" }, { "text": "Do the denominator boundaries and population inclusion rules match those of the births counted?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "align-births-and-population-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "exposure-and-rate-expression", "name": "Exposure and rate expression", "description": "Records the time basis, denominator construction and numerical scaling.", "findings": [ { "id": "reproduce-rate-calculation", "name": "Reproduce the rate calculation", "description": "Make the published value traceable to births, population exposure, multiplier and any adjustment.", "questions": [ { "text": "What numerator, denominator method and multiplier reproduce the reported rate?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "reproduce-rate-calculation-q01" }, { "text": "What interval does the rate cover, and was it annualized, seasonally adjusted or smoothed?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "reproduce-rate-calculation-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "birth-registration-and-estimation", "name": "Birth registration and estimation", "description": "Establishes how birth events and population denominators became a reported value.", "rationale": "Incomplete registration, delayed reporting and demographic estimation can change the apparent level of birth rate.", "layers": [ { "id": "evidence-lineage", "name": "Evidence lineage", "description": "Traces birth and population inputs to their producers and methods.", "findings": [ { "id": "trace-inputs-and-adjustments", "name": "Trace inputs and adjustments", "description": "Identify the underlying registration, census, survey or model evidence and any corrections.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which sources and releases supply the birth numerator and population denominator?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "trace-inputs-and-adjustments-q01" }, { "text": "Which adjustments address missing births, delayed registration or population undercoverage?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "trace-inputs-and-adjustments-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "uncertainty-and-revision", "name": "Uncertainty and revision", "description": "Captures unresolved coverage problems, estimation uncertainty and changes between releases.", "findings": [ { "id": "qualify-reported-value", "name": "Qualify the reported value", "description": "Record evidence status and limitations without treating an absent uncertainty interval as certainty.", "questions": [ { "text": "Is this value observed, estimated or projected, and is the release provisional or final?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "qualify-reported-value-q01" }, { "text": "What uncertainty, registration gaps or revisions could materially change this value?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "qualify-reported-value-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "demographic-comparison", "name": "Demographic comparison", "description": "Determines whether differences in reported birth rates support meaningful demographic conclusions.", "rationale": "Crude birth rates reflect population composition as well as fertility, and series can change when methods or boundaries change.", "layers": [ { "id": "population-composition", "name": "Population composition", "description": "Places the rate alongside the age and sex composition relevant to its interpretation.", "findings": [ { "id": "separate-composition-from-fertility", "name": "Separate composition from fertility", "description": "Record whether available evidence can distinguish fertility changes from changes in population composition.", "questions": [ { "text": "How does the population's reproductive-age composition affect interpretation of this crude birth rate?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "separate-composition-from-fertility-q01" }, { "text": "Which linked age-specific or fertility measures are needed before interpreting the difference as changed childbearing behavior?", "kind": "action", "id": "separate-composition-from-fertility-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "series-comparability", "name": "Series comparability", "description": "Checks continuity across periods, places and publication methods.", "findings": [ { "id": "identify-comparison-breaks", "name": "Identify comparison breaks", "description": "Record differences that could create an apparent trend or invalidate a ranking.", "questions": [ { "text": "Do the compared values use the same event definitions, time basis, territorial boundaries and denominator method?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "identify-comparison-breaks-q01" }, { "text": "Must any comparison be restricted or qualified because registration coverage, methods or population estimates changed?", "kind": "action", "id": "identify-comparison-breaks-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "interpretation-and-use", "name": "Interpretation and use", "description": "Connects the measured rate to defensible conclusions and planning inputs.", "rationale": "A birth rate alone cannot establish reproductive preferences, population growth, replacement fertility or an appropriate policy response.", "layers": [ { "id": "demographic-claims", "name": "Demographic claims", "description": "Sets the evidence needed for statements about level, direction and causes.", "findings": [ { "id": "bound-conclusions", "name": "Bound conclusions", "description": "Require explicit benchmarks for judgments and additional evidence for causal or broader demographic claims.", "questions": [ { "text": "Relative to which population, period or stated benchmark is this rate described as high, low, rising or falling?", "kind": "definition", "id": "bound-conclusions-q01" }, { "text": "What additional evidence is required before drawing conclusions about causes, replacement fertility or population growth?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "bound-conclusions-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "planning-input", "name": "Planning input", "description": "Defines how the rate may inform expected birth volumes or related planning.", "findings": [ { "id": "condition-planning-use", "name": "Condition planning use", "description": "Preserve population, period and scenario assumptions when using a rate to inform another model.", "questions": [ { "text": "Is the available population exposure compatible with converting this rate into an implied birth count?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "condition-planning-use-q01" }, { "text": "Which assumptions and uncertainty must accompany its use in forecasts or service-demand estimates?", "kind": "action", "id": "condition-planning-use-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "evidence-and-external-alignment", "name": "Evidence and external alignment", "description": "What the world already says about this thing, gathered so the model can be checked against it.", "rationale": "A model that cannot be lined up against existing standards, identifiers and practice cannot be adopted by anyone who already uses them.", "layers": [ { "id": "reported-evidence", "name": "Reported evidence", "description": "Findings from the breadth pass, kept separate from the structural claims.", "findings": [ { "id": "evidence-kinds", "name": "Kinds and varieties", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ "crude birth rate (CBR)", "general fertility rate (GFR)", "age-specific fertility rate (ASFR)", "total fertility rate (TFR)", "standardised / age-adjusted birth rate", "marital vs non-marital birth rate", "period vs cohort fertility", "legitimate vs illegitimate historical birth statistics" ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-kinds-q01", "text": "Which of these kinds and varieties hold for the sense of birth rate this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-identifiers", "name": "Identifiers and schemes", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ { "scheme": "Wikidata", "value_or_pattern": "Q20575", "note": "item 'birth rate'" }, { "scheme": "World Bank WDI", "value_or_pattern": "SP.DYN.CBRT.IN", "note": "Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people)" }, { "scheme": "UN SDMX / demographic indicator", "value_or_pattern": "CBR / crude birth rate, live births per 1,000 population", "note": "standard vital-statistics indicator code used in UN DESA and many NSOs" }, { "scheme": "WHO GHO / IMR", "value_or_pattern": "indicator metadata for crude birth rate (live births per 1,000 population)", "note": "Global Health Observatory indicator" }, { "scheme": "Eurostat", "value_or_pattern": "demo_gind / demo_frate series (crude birth rate)", "note": "EU official demography tables" } ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-identifiers-q01", "text": "Which of these identifiers and schemes hold for the sense of birth rate this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-standards-and-regulation", "name": "Standards and regulation", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ "UN Statistical Commission / UNSD - Principles and Recommendations for a Vital Statistics System, Rev. 3 (definition of live birth and of crude birth rate)", "WHO - International Statistical Classification of Diseases and related health problems, and live-birth definition used with vital registration", "Eurostat - EU regulation on European demographic statistics (Regulation (EU) No 1260/2013) governing birth statistics supplied by member states", "National vital-registration law - civil registration of live births (e.g. US Model State Vital Statistics Act; England and Wales Births and Deaths Registration Act 1953) as the legal source of the numerator" ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-standards-and-regulation-q01", "text": "Which of these standards and regulation hold for the sense of birth rate this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-real-world-use", "name": "Real-world use", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ "National statistical offices publish annual CBR from civil registration or from surveys when registration is incomplete", "UN DESA World Population Prospects and World Bank WDI compile country CBR for population projections and development indicators", "Health ministries use CBR with death rates to track natural increase and to size maternity, paediatric and school-place demand", "Actuaries and pension/social-security agencies use fertility/birth series as an input to long-run dependency-ratio forecasts", "Local government uses small-area birth counts (not always rates) for school planning and health visiting caseloads" ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-real-world-use-q01", "text": "Which of these real-world use hold for the sense of birth rate this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-measurements", "name": "Typical measurements", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ { "quantity": "crude birth rate", "typical_range": "about 6-45 in recent country data (sub-replacement high-income often 7-12; high-fertility low-income often 30-45)", "unit": "live births per 1,000 mid-year population per year" }, { "quantity": "general fertility rate", "typical_range": "roughly 30-200 depending on age structure and fertility", "unit": "live births per 1,000 women aged 15-49 per year" }, { "quantity": "total fertility rate", "typical_range": "about 0.8-7 children per woman in recent national estimates; replacement conventionally ~2.1 in low-mortality populations", "unit": "children per woman (sum of ASFRs × 5 / 1,000 for 5-year age groups)" }, { "quantity": "age-specific fertility rate", "typical_range": "near 0 below 15 and after 45; peak often 50-200 in the 20-34 bands", "unit": "live births per 1,000 women in that age group per year" } ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-measurements-q01", "text": "Which of these typical measurements hold for the sense of birth rate this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-failure-modes-and-hazards", "name": "Failure modes and hazards", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ "Incomplete civil registration undercounts live births and understates CBR, especially where home births are common", "Misclassification of live birth vs stillbirth (and of early neonatal death) moves events between birth and perinatal-mortality series", "Using CBR as a fertility measure confounds fertility with age structure: a young population can have a high CBR with moderate TFR, and an aged population a low CBR with replacement TFR", "Short-run CBR swings from tempo (postponement or catching-up of births) are read as quantum change", "Small-area rates are unstable; a few births move the rate sharply", "Policy use of a falling CBR as a crisis signal can justify coercive pronatalism or immigration scares without a fertility or age-structure diagnosis" ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-failure-modes-and-hazards-q01", "text": "Which of these failure modes and hazards hold for the sense of birth rate this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-regional-variation", "name": "Regional variation", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ "English 'birth rate' in official statistics almost always means crude birth rate; 'fertility rate' is reserved for GFR/ASFR/TFR - this split is weaker in everyday speech", "Some historical European series reported 'legitimate' births only, excluding non-marital births", "China, parts of the former USSR and some Gulf states have used household registration (hukou, propiska-type) rather than event registration, so published rates can omit unregistered or migrant births", "UN and World Bank series for countries without complete registration are modelled estimates, not civil-registration counts, and can differ from the national yearbook", "Islamic and some civil-law systems record live birth against different gestational or 'signs of life' tests, which slightly shifts the live-birth numerator" ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-regional-variation-q01", "text": "Which of these regional variation hold for the sense of birth rate this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-neighbours", "name": "Neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart", "description": "Reported by the breadth pass; each item needs checking against its source before it becomes normative.", "evidence": [ { "name": "total fertility rate (TFR)", "difference": "TFR is a synthetic cohort measure of children per woman from age-specific rates; CBR is births per 1,000 total population and moves with age structure even if TFR is fixed" }, { "name": "general fertility rate (GFR)", "difference": "GFR uses women of reproductive age in the denominator; CBR uses the whole population, including males and people outside reproductive ages" }, { "name": "crude death rate", "difference": "same form (events per 1,000 population) but the numerator is deaths; natural increase is CBR minus CDR" }, { "name": "population growth rate", "difference": "growth rate includes natural increase plus net migration, usually as a percent of population, not as births per 1,000" }, { "name": "stillbirth / late fetal death rate", "difference": "stillbirths are not live births and are excluded from the CBR numerator; they belong to perinatal statistics" }, { "name": "natality / number of births", "difference": "the count of live births is the CBR numerator; the rate divides that count by mid-year population × 1,000" } ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-neighbours-q01", "text": "Which of these neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart hold for the sense of birth rate this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "openQuestions": [ "Should this registry entry own only crude birth rate, or also explicitly named birth-rate variants, given that no definition is recorded?", "Does an existing Vercy world model already own this concept and require a registry link instead of a separate publication?", "Which authoritative sources and operational live-birth definitions should anchor the first researched publication?", "Which jurisdictions and reporting intervals must be supported, and what residence, registration and denominator differences occur among them?", "What evidence-quality requirements should govern trend claims and planning use, especially for small populations or incomplete registration?" ], "statistics": { "bundles": 6, "layers": 11, "findings": 18, "questions": 28 } }, "draft": { "generator": "vr.draft.v3", "status": "draft-generated", "researched": false, "archetype": "abstract concept", "method": "Written from the archetype playbook - what this kind of thing needs beyond identity and provenance - and from the structure that recurred across 6,333 models already researched by two engines. Applied to this entry by rule. No source was read for this thing and no claim here is researched. This entry carries no facets of its own, so they were inferred from its domain - a guess about a whole domain applied to one thing.", "facetsInferred": true, "nextPass": "A researcher replaces this draft with a sourced specification. Treat every sentence below as a proposal to argue with.", "purpose": "Give an agent a durable, checkable way to recognise a birth rate, record what state it is in, and decide what may be done with it.", "whatItIs": "Enable an AI agent to identify a birth-rate measure, assess its demographic meaning and evidence quality, and decide which comparisons, interpretations and uses are justified.", "characteristics": { "substance": "abstract", "origin": "conceptual", "agency": "inert" }, "whatYouCanDoWithIt": [ "observed and measured" ], "distinguishingFeatures": [ "Names folded into this entry, which a task may need to split apart again: sub-replacement fertility.", "1 finer distinctions are held as aliases rather than separate entries, because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it.", "Described in 62 Wikipedia languages, which is a measure of how widely the thing is known, not of how important it is." ], "openQuestionsForResearch": [ "Which of the bundles below does a real task actually need, and which are ceremony?", "What does this thing have that the facets do not capture at all?", "Which neighbouring kind is most often confused with a birth rate, and on what evidence are they told apart?" ], "whatItIsMadeOf": "an abstraction with no physical instance", "physicalCharacter": [ "Does nothing on its own; everything it does, something else did to it.", "These come from the domain this entry sits in rather than from the entry itself, so treat them as a first guess about the whole domain applied to one thing." ], "whatCanBeDoneWithIt": [ "observe it, measure it, record its state" ], "howItIsRecognised": [ "Nothing to see. What is recognised is an instance of it, and which instances count is exactly what is argued about." ], "relatedModels": [ { "relation": "covers", "note": "Finer kinds folded into this entry because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it. Each is a model waiting to be split out when one does.", "targets": [ "sub-replacement fertility" ] } ], "standing": "Described in 62 Wikipedia languages, which measures how widely it is written about rather than how important or how common it is. 1 finer distinctions are held inside this entry as names rather than as separate models.", "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "identity-and-classification", "name": "Identity, naming and classification", "description": "How an agent tells one birth rate from another, and a birth rate from things that resemble it.", "rationale": "Recognition comes before every other claim. Without stable identity nothing else in the model can be trusted to be about the same thing twice.", "layers": [ { "id": "naming-and-identifiers", "name": "Names and identifiers", "description": "The names this thing goes by and the identifiers that survive translation and time.", "findings": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases", "name": "Preferred name, aliases and local names", "description": "Which name to use, which names mean the same thing, and which merely sound similar.", "questions": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the name of a birth rate, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the name of a birth rate, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the name of a birth rate is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers", "name": "Stable identifiers and external keys", "description": "Identifiers that keep pointing at this kind of thing across systems and languages.", "questions": [ { "id": "stable-identifiers-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an identifier for a birth rate, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an identifier for a birth rate, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an identifier for a birth rate is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "classification-and-granularity", "name": "Classification and granularity", "description": "Where a birth rate sits among kinds, and how finely a task needs to cut it.", "findings": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents", "name": "Kind, parents and neighbouring kinds", "description": "The classes this thing belongs to and the ones it is next to.", "questions": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the kind of a birth rate, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the kind of a birth rate, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the kind of a birth rate is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features", "name": "Distinguishing features", "description": "What separates a birth rate from the things most often confused with it.", "questions": [ { "id": "distinguishing-features-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes what distinguishes a birth rate, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about what distinguishes a birth rate, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once what distinguishes a birth rate is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "state-and-lifecycle", "name": "State and lifecycle", "description": "The states a birth rate passes through and the events that move it between them.", "rationale": "Most decisions about a thing depend on what state it is in now, which is a claim with a time on it, not a property.", "layers": [ { "id": "lifecycle-stages", "name": "Lifecycle stages", "description": "From coming into existence to ceasing to be one of these.", "findings": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions", "name": "Stages and transitions", "description": "The stages worth naming and what moves a birth rate between them.", "questions": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the lifecycle of a birth rate, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the lifecycle of a birth rate, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the lifecycle of a birth rate is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "observations-and-status", "name": "Observations and current status", "description": "What is observed about a birth rate, how often and by whom.", "findings": [ { "id": "observation-record", "name": "Observation record", "description": "How an observation of a birth rate is recorded so that it can be superseded rather than overwritten.", "questions": [ { "id": "observation-record-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an observation of a birth rate, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an observation of a birth rate, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an observation of a birth rate is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "definitions-in-contest", "name": "Definitions and who holds them", "description": "What birth rate is taken to mean, and by whom.", "rationale": "When a field disagrees about a concept, the disagreement is the content. A model that picks one definition silently destroys the information.", "layers": [ { "id": "competing-definitions", "name": "Competing definitions", "description": "The main readings and the traditions behind them.", "findings": [ { "id": "definition-map", "name": "Definitions and their holders", "description": "Each definition with the school or body that holds it.", "questions": [ { "id": "definition-map-q01", "text": "Which definitions of birth rate are in use, and which tradition or body holds each?", "kind": "definition" }, { "id": "definition-map-q02", "text": "What turns on the difference between them in practice?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "operationalisation", "name": "Operationalisation", "description": "How it is measured or applied when it has to be.", "findings": [ { "id": "operational-record", "name": "Measures and proxies", "description": "Instruments and indicators used to stand in for it.", "questions": [ { "id": "operational-record-q01", "text": "How is birth rate operationalised or measured in practice, and by what instrument?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "id": "operational-record-q02", "text": "What does that operationalisation leave out, and when does that matter?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "instances-and-use", "name": "Instances, use and consequence", "description": "What counts as an instance of birth rate and what follows from calling something that.", "rationale": "Applying a concept is an act with consequences, so a model must say what the label licenses and what it does not.", "layers": [ { "id": "instances", "name": "What counts as an instance", "description": "Clear cases, borderline cases and non-cases.", "findings": [ { "id": "instance-tests", "name": "Tests for an instance", "description": "What would settle whether something falls under it.", "questions": [ { "id": "instance-tests-q01", "text": "What would settle whether something is an instance of birth rate?", "kind": "boundary" }, { "id": "instance-tests-q02", "text": "Which borderline cases are argued about, and on what grounds?", "kind": "definition" } ] } ] }, { "id": "consequence", "name": "Consequence of application", "description": "Rights, duties or decisions that follow from the label.", "findings": [ { "id": "consequence-record", "name": "What the label licenses", "description": "What an agent may do once something is classified this way.", "questions": [ { "id": "consequence-record-q01", "text": "What follows practically once something is treated as birth rate?", "kind": "action" }, { "id": "consequence-record-q02", "text": "What must an agent not infer from the label alone?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "provenance-and-evidence", "name": "Provenance, evidence and time", "description": "Where every claim about a birth rate came from and when it held.", "rationale": "A claim without a source and a time cannot be superseded, only overwritten, and an agent that overwrites loses the ability to explain itself.", "layers": [ { "id": "source-and-authority", "name": "Source and authority", "description": "Who said it, on what evidence, and how strongly.", "findings": [ { "id": "claim-provenance", "name": "Claim provenance and confidence", "description": "The authority behind each claim about a birth rate and how confident it is.", "questions": [ { "id": "claim-provenance-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes a claim about a birth rate, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about a claim about a birth rate, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once a claim about a birth rate is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "time-and-versions", "name": "Time, versions and supersession", "description": "When a claim was true, when it was learnt, and what replaced it.", "findings": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession", "name": "Validity period and supersession", "description": "How an old claim about a birth rate is retired without being erased.", "questions": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the validity of a claim about a birth rate, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the validity of a claim about a birth rate, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the validity of a claim about a birth rate is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "statistics": { "bundles": 5, "layers": 10, "findings": 12, "questions": 32 } } } }