{ "model": { "rank": 5995, "code": "thing-q408386", "model_id": "vr.tr.inference", "name": "inference", "purpose": "Let an agent handle inference by type, premises or data, method, validity and uncertainty.", "family": "Thing Registry", "category": "Activities and processes", "status": "research-draft", "kind": "thing", "plane": "ACT", "domain": "ACT.PRC", "industry": "", "version": "", "url": "/models/thing/q408386/", "tier": 2, "score": 63, "payload": { "layer": "wikidata", "aliases": [ "Estimated Seismic Intensity Map", "inferred from Commons category", "point estimation", "Bayesian inference", "Bayesian post-hoc analysis", "PAC-bayesian learning", "Bayesian inference in motor learning", "Bayesian inference in phylogeny", "Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling", "expectation propagation", "variational Bayesian methods", "knowledge inference", "inferred from page(s)", "inferred from URL", "inferred from DOI string", "backward chaining", "inferred from statements", "inferred from NIOSH Numbered Publication ID match", "inferred from prose", "immediate inference", "inferred from references", "inferred from 'by descent' statement", "inferred from date official website first archived", "inferred from date photo taken", "inferred from date of first (known) publication", "inferred from date of last publication", "inferred from system requirements", "inferred from subtitle", "inferred from publication venue", "inferred from inclusion in a list or dataset", "inferred from place of family register", "inferred from date of father's death", "selective inference", "nonparametric inference", "parametric inference", "inferred from date of mother's death", "informal inferential reasoning", "cut rule", "ecological inference", "abductive reasoning" ], "aliasCount": 49, "merged": 49, "knownIn": 63, "facets": null, "markers": [], "lexicalClass": "", "senseRank": null, "alsoRegisteredAs": null, "source": { "dataset": "wikidata", "item": "Q408386", "url": "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386", "license": "CC0 1.0" } }, "research": { "vercy": "1.0-draft", "publication": { "status": "research-draft", "adjudicationStatus": "unreviewed", "publishableCanonical": false, "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T07:40:02Z", "providers": [ "Claude" ], "breadth": "written by Claude from model knowledge without web access - no source was read, every claim is a lead to verify", "pass": 2, "wave": 1, "engine": "claude" }, "metaModel": { "id": "THING-Q408386", "registryId": "vr.tr.inference", "name": "inference", "version": "0.2.0-wave.1", "entryKind": "thing", "family": "Thing Registry", "domain": [ "ACT.PRC" ], "status": "research-draft" }, "canonicalUrl": "https://ver.cy/models/thing/q408386/", "model": { "registry_id": "vr.tr.inference", "name": "inference", "purpose": "Let an agent handle inference by type, premises or data, method, validity and uncertainty.", "definition": "The process of deriving conclusions from premises or evidence, by deduction, induction or abduction in logic, and by statistical methods such as estimation and Bayesian inference in data analysis.", "what_it_is_for": "Reasoning from what is known to what follows or is likely.", "affordances": [ "check logical validity", "estimate parameters from data", "quantify uncertainty", "avoid common fallacies" ], "distinguishing_features": [ "From premises or data to conclusions", "Deductive, inductive, abductive", "Statistical inference quantifies uncertainty", "Validity differs from truth" ], "appearance": "Arguments, proofs, statistical models and results.", "visual_identification": [ "Premises and conclusions", "Estimates with confidence or credible intervals", "Machine learning inference means running a trained model" ], "physical_properties": [], "families_and_kinds": [ "deductive inference", "inductive inference", "abductive inference", "frequentist statistical inference", "Bayesian inference" ], "related_models": [ { "relation": "is a kind of", "target": "process and reasoning", "why": "category" }, { "relation": "is studied by", "target": "logic and statistics", "why": "fields" }, { "relation": "produces", "target": "conclusion and estimate", "why": "outputs" }, { "relation": "is confused with", "target": "model inference in ML", "why": "another sense" } ], "identifiers": [], "standards_and_regulation": [ "Reporting guidelines for statistical analyses such as CONSORT" ], "failure_modes_and_hazards": [ "Fallacies", "Overconfident estimates", "p-hacking and multiple comparisons" ], "in_scope": [], "out_of_scope": [], "characteristics": [] }, "sources": [], "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "type", "name": "Type", "description": "Which inference.", "rationale": "Types differ.", "layers": [ { "id": "kind", "name": "Kind", "description": "Deductive to Bayesian.", "findings": [ { "id": "kind-finding", "name": "Kind", "description": "Inference type.", "questions": [ { "text": "What kind of inference is used?", "kind": "definition" }, { "text": "What does it guarantee?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "premises", "name": "Premises", "description": "Inputs.", "findings": [ { "id": "premises-finding", "name": "Premises", "description": "Premises or data.", "questions": [ { "text": "What premises or data does it start from?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Are they reliable?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "validity", "name": "Validity", "description": "Soundness.", "rationale": "Validity must be checked.", "layers": [ { "id": "logic", "name": "Logic", "description": "Valid form.", "findings": [ { "id": "logic-finding", "name": "Logic", "description": "Logical validity.", "questions": [ { "text": "Is the argument valid?", "kind": "boundary" }, { "text": "Does it commit a fallacy?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "assumptions", "name": "Assumptions", "description": "Model assumptions.", "findings": [ { "id": "assumptions-finding", "name": "Assumptions", "description": "Assumptions.", "questions": [ { "text": "What assumptions does the method make?", "kind": "definition" }, { "text": "Do they hold here?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "uncertainty", "name": "Uncertainty", "description": "How sure.", "rationale": "Uncertainty must be stated.", "layers": [ { "id": "intervals", "name": "Intervals", "description": "Confidence or credible.", "findings": [ { "id": "intervals-finding", "name": "Intervals", "description": "Intervals.", "questions": [ { "text": "What interval accompanies the estimate?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "text": "How is it interpreted?", "kind": "definition" } ] } ] }, { "id": "robustness", "name": "Robustness", "description": "Sensitivity.", "findings": [ { "id": "robustness-finding", "name": "Robustness", "description": "Robustness.", "questions": [ { "text": "How sensitive is the conclusion to assumptions?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "text": "Were alternatives tested?", "kind": "provenance" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "practice", "name": "Practice", "description": "Reporting.", "rationale": "Good reporting prevents errors.", "layers": [ { "id": "reporting", "name": "Reporting", "description": "Transparency.", "findings": [ { "id": "reporting-finding", "name": "Reporting", "description": "Reporting.", "questions": [ { "text": "Are methods and results reported fully?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "Were analyses preregistered?", "kind": "provenance" } ] } ] }, { "id": "senses", "name": "Senses", "description": "ML inference.", "findings": [ { "id": "senses-finding", "name": "Senses", "description": "Other senses.", "questions": [ { "text": "Is running a trained model meant instead?", "kind": "boundary" }, { "text": "Which entry fits?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "openQuestions": [ "Should inference types be separate entries?", "How should the ML sense be split off?", "How should uncertainty be recorded?" ], "statistics": { "bundles": 4, "layers": 8, "findings": 8, "questions": 16 } }, "draft": { "generator": "vr.draft.v3", "status": "draft-generated", "researched": false, "archetype": "abstract concept", "method": "Written from the archetype playbook - what this kind of thing needs beyond identity and provenance - and from the structure that recurred across 6,333 models already researched by two engines. Applied to this entry by rule. No source was read for this thing and no claim here is researched. This entry carries no facets of its own, so they were inferred from its domain - a guess about a whole domain applied to one thing.", "facetsInferred": true, "nextPass": "A researcher replaces this draft with a sourced specification. Treat every sentence below as a proposal to argue with.", "purpose": "Give an agent a durable, checkable way to recognise a inference, record what state it is in, and decide what may be done with it.", "whatItIs": "Let an agent handle inference by type, premises or data, method, validity and uncertainty.", "characteristics": { "substance": "activity", "origin": "conceptual", "agency": "inert" }, "whatYouCanDoWithIt": [ "observed and measured" ], "distinguishingFeatures": [ "Names folded into this entry, which a task may need to split apart again: Estimated Seismic Intensity Map, inferred from Commons category, point estimation, Bayesian inference, Bayesian post-hoc analysis, PAC-bayesian learning, Bayesian inference in motor learning, Bayesian inference in phylogeny, Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling, expectation propagation, variational Bayesian methods, knowledge inference.", "49 finer distinctions are held as aliases rather than separate entries, because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it.", "Described in 63 Wikipedia languages, which is a measure of how widely the thing is known, not of how important it is." ], "openQuestionsForResearch": [ "Which of the bundles below does a real task actually need, and which are ceremony?", "What does this thing have that the facets do not capture at all?", "Which neighbouring kind is most often confused with a inference, and on what evidence are they told apart?" ], "whatItIsMadeOf": "something that happens over time", "physicalCharacter": [ "Does nothing on its own; everything it does, something else did to it.", "These come from the domain this entry sits in rather than from the entry itself, so treat them as a first guess about the whole domain applied to one thing." ], "whatCanBeDoneWithIt": [ "observe it, measure it, record its state" ], "howItIsRecognised": [ "Nothing to see. What is recognised is an instance of it, and which instances count is exactly what is argued about." ], "relatedModels": [ { "relation": "covers", "note": "Finer kinds folded into this entry because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it. Each is a model waiting to be split out when one does.", "targets": [ "Estimated Seismic Intensity Map", "inferred from Commons category", "point estimation", "Bayesian inference", "Bayesian post-hoc analysis", "PAC-bayesian learning", "Bayesian inference in motor learning", "Bayesian inference in phylogeny", "Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling", "expectation propagation", "variational Bayesian methods", "knowledge inference" ] } ], "standing": "Described in 63 Wikipedia languages, which measures how widely it is written about rather than how important or how common it is. 49 finer distinctions are held inside this entry as names rather than as separate models.", "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "identity-and-classification", "name": "Identity, naming and classification", "description": "How an agent tells one inference from another, and a inference from things that resemble it.", "rationale": "Recognition comes before every other claim. Without stable identity nothing else in the model can be trusted to be about the same thing twice.", "layers": [ { "id": "naming-and-identifiers", "name": "Names and identifiers", "description": "The names this thing goes by and the identifiers that survive translation and time.", "findings": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases", "name": "Preferred name, aliases and local names", "description": "Which name to use, which names mean the same thing, and which merely sound similar.", "questions": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the name of a inference, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the name of a inference, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the name of a inference is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers", "name": "Stable identifiers and external keys", "description": "Identifiers that keep pointing at this kind of thing across systems and languages.", "questions": [ { "id": "stable-identifiers-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an identifier for a inference, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an identifier for a inference, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an identifier for a inference is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "classification-and-granularity", "name": "Classification and granularity", "description": "Where a inference sits among kinds, and how finely a task needs to cut it.", "findings": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents", "name": "Kind, parents and neighbouring kinds", "description": "The classes this thing belongs to and the ones it is next to.", "questions": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the kind of a inference, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the kind of a inference, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the kind of a inference is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features", "name": "Distinguishing features", "description": "What separates a inference from the things most often confused with it.", "questions": [ { "id": "distinguishing-features-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes what distinguishes a inference, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about what distinguishes a inference, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once what distinguishes a inference is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "state-and-lifecycle", "name": "State and lifecycle", "description": "The states a inference passes through and the events that move it between them.", "rationale": "Most decisions about a thing depend on what state it is in now, which is a claim with a time on it, not a property.", "layers": [ { "id": "lifecycle-stages", "name": "Lifecycle stages", "description": "From coming into existence to ceasing to be one of these.", "findings": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions", "name": "Stages and transitions", "description": "The stages worth naming and what moves a inference between them.", "questions": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the lifecycle of a inference, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the lifecycle of a inference, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the lifecycle of a inference is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "observations-and-status", "name": "Observations and current status", "description": "What is observed about a inference, how often and by whom.", "findings": [ { "id": "observation-record", "name": "Observation record", "description": "How an observation of a inference is recorded so that it can be superseded rather than overwritten.", "questions": [ { "id": "observation-record-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an observation of a inference, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an observation of a inference, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an observation of a inference is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "process-and-outcome", "name": "Process, inputs and outcome", "description": "How a inference proceeds, what it needs and what it leaves behind.", "rationale": "An activity is known by its steps and its results, and both have to be recordable while it is still running.", "layers": [ { "id": "steps-and-sequence", "name": "Steps and sequence", "description": "The steps of a inference, their order and what may run in parallel.", "findings": [ { "id": "steps-and-preconditions", "name": "Steps, preconditions and completion", "description": "What has to be true before each step of a inference and what marks it done.", "questions": [ { "id": "steps-and-preconditions-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes a step of a inference, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "steps-and-preconditions-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about a step of a inference, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "steps-and-preconditions-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once a step of a inference is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "inputs-and-results", "name": "Inputs, resources and results", "description": "What a inference consumes and what it produces.", "findings": [ { "id": "inputs-and-outputs", "name": "Inputs, outputs and side effects", "description": "The resources a inference takes and the results it leaves, wanted or not.", "questions": [ { "id": "inputs-and-outputs-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the inputs and results of a inference, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "inputs-and-outputs-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the inputs and results of a inference, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "inputs-and-outputs-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the inputs and results of a inference is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "definitions-in-contest", "name": "Definitions and who holds them", "description": "What inference is taken to mean, and by whom.", "rationale": "When a field disagrees about a concept, the disagreement is the content. A model that picks one definition silently destroys the information.", "layers": [ { "id": "competing-definitions", "name": "Competing definitions", "description": "The main readings and the traditions behind them.", "findings": [ { "id": "definition-map", "name": "Definitions and their holders", "description": "Each definition with the school or body that holds it.", "questions": [ { "id": "definition-map-q01", "text": "Which definitions of inference are in use, and which tradition or body holds each?", "kind": "definition" }, { "id": "definition-map-q02", "text": "What turns on the difference between them in practice?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "operationalisation", "name": "Operationalisation", "description": "How it is measured or applied when it has to be.", "findings": [ { "id": "operational-record", "name": "Measures and proxies", "description": "Instruments and indicators used to stand in for it.", "questions": [ { "id": "operational-record-q01", "text": "How is inference operationalised or measured in practice, and by what instrument?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "id": "operational-record-q02", "text": "What does that operationalisation leave out, and when does that matter?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "instances-and-use", "name": "Instances, use and consequence", "description": "What counts as an instance of inference and what follows from calling something that.", "rationale": "Applying a concept is an act with consequences, so a model must say what the label licenses and what it does not.", "layers": [ { "id": "instances", "name": "What counts as an instance", "description": "Clear cases, borderline cases and non-cases.", "findings": [ { "id": "instance-tests", "name": "Tests for an instance", "description": "What would settle whether something falls under it.", "questions": [ { "id": "instance-tests-q01", "text": "What would settle whether something is an instance of inference?", "kind": "boundary" }, { "id": "instance-tests-q02", "text": "Which borderline cases are argued about, and on what grounds?", "kind": "definition" } ] } ] }, { "id": "consequence", "name": "Consequence of application", "description": "Rights, duties or decisions that follow from the label.", "findings": [ { "id": "consequence-record", "name": "What the label licenses", "description": "What an agent may do once something is classified this way.", "questions": [ { "id": "consequence-record-q01", "text": "What follows practically once something is treated as inference?", "kind": "action" }, { "id": "consequence-record-q02", "text": "What must an agent not infer from the label alone?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "provenance-and-evidence", "name": "Provenance, evidence and time", "description": "Where every claim about a inference came from and when it held.", "rationale": "A claim without a source and a time cannot be superseded, only overwritten, and an agent that overwrites loses the ability to explain itself.", "layers": [ { "id": "source-and-authority", "name": "Source and authority", "description": "Who said it, on what evidence, and how strongly.", "findings": [ { "id": "claim-provenance", "name": "Claim provenance and confidence", "description": "The authority behind each claim about a inference and how confident it is.", "questions": [ { "id": "claim-provenance-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes a claim about a inference, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about a claim about a inference, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once a claim about a inference is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "time-and-versions", "name": "Time, versions and supersession", "description": "When a claim was true, when it was learnt, and what replaced it.", "findings": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession", "name": "Validity period and supersession", "description": "How an old claim about a inference is retired without being erased.", "questions": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the validity of a claim about a inference, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the validity of a claim about a inference, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the validity of a claim about a inference is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "statistics": { "bundles": 6, "layers": 12, "findings": 14, "questions": 38 } } } }