Cold War

Organising rivalry

Record which antagonistic relationships organise the Cold War in a given interval and what participants believe is at stake.

1. Which actors constitute the principal rivalry during this interval, and what makes their antagonism system-defining? definition
2. Which contemporary records establish their stated objectives, threat perceptions, and perceived incompatibilities? provenance

Alignment without assumed control

Record alliance ties and dependence separately from obedience, shared ideology, or agreement on particular actions.

1. Where do formal membership, material dependence, ideological affinity, and actual policy cooperation diverge? measurement
2. When should an actor be treated as an autonomous participant, a non-aligned actor, or a rival within an apparent bloc? boundary

Legitimacy contests

Record ideological claims, intended audiences, channels of influence, and evidence of reception.

1. Which claims about political or social order are being contested, and which audiences are targeted? definition
2. What evidence distinguishes an influence campaign's intended effect from its observed reception? measurement

Resources as rivalry instruments

Record when economic or technological activities serve strategic competition and how recipients respond.

1. What evidence connects a particular aid programme, restriction, or technological programme to Cold War objectives? provenance
2. Which changes in dependence, access, capability, or prestige can be observed without assuming that expenditure produced influence? measurement

Attributed covert involvement

Record alleged and established covert involvement separately, with the evidence and disclosure history supporting each attribution.

1. Which records substantiate sponsorship, authorisation, participation, and intended purpose rather than merely alleging involvement? provenance
2. What may the agent conclude or compare when attribution remains disputed or relevant archives remain inaccessible? action

Qualified proxy relationship

Record the type, timing, and extent of outside involvement before applying a proxy-war interpretation.

1. What assistance or intervention connects this conflict to the principal rivalry, and during which intervals? provenance
2. Does the evidence support a proxy relationship, direct intervention, opportunistic support, or a weaker association? boundary

Sponsor-partner divergence

Record where local actors pursue independent objectives or alter the choices available to external supporters.

1. Which local objectives predate, exceed, or contradict the objectives of external supporters? definition
2. What evidence shows local actors redirecting assistance, resisting sponsor pressure, or drawing sponsors further into confrontation? provenance

Capability, credibility, and perception

Record military capability separately from communicated threats and an opponent's assessment of their credibility.

1. Which capabilities and commitments underpin deterrence claims, and how are they understood by the opposing actors? measurement
2. Which sources distinguish contemporary beliefs about vulnerability from later reconstructions of the military balance? provenance

Escalation and off-ramps

Record crisis triggers, signals, misperceptions, decision constraints, and available routes to restraint.

1. Which developments change the risk of direct or nuclear war, and what did each decision-maker know at that point? measurement
2. Which communication channels, reciprocal steps, agreements, or concessions were available to reduce escalation, and under what conditions? action
3. What evidence supports attributing restraint to deterrence, diplomacy, operational limits, or other causes? provenance

Criterion-based phases

Record candidate onset dates and phases alongside the relationships or behaviours that justify them.

1. What change marks the emergence of the Cold War under each proposed starting criterion? boundary
2. Which indicators distinguish intensified confrontation, accommodation, and renewed rivalry, including differences among regions and arenas? measurement

Ending versus persistent effects

Record competing termination criteria and distinguish continued rivalry from institutions, conflicts, or dependencies that outlast it.

1. Which relationships or practices must cease or change for the Cold War to count as ended, and when is each criterion met? boundary
2. What evidence distinguishes a continuing Cold War relationship from a later consequence or a newly constituted rivalry? provenance