{ "model": { "rank": 1476, "code": "thing-q9492", "model_id": "vr.tr.probability", "name": "probability", "purpose": "Let an agent handle probability by definition, interpretation, calculation and communication of risk, avoiding common fallacies.", "family": "Thing Registry", "category": "Cross-cutting context", "status": "research-draft", "kind": "thing", "plane": "XCT", "domain": "XCT.QLT", "industry": "", "version": "", "url": "/models/thing/q9492/", "tier": 2, "score": 144, "payload": { "layer": "wikidata", "aliases": [ "availability", "loss probability", "error probability", "joint probability", "topic probability", "geometric probability", "probability of acceptance", "negative probability", "confidence level", "tail probability", "Probability of precipitation", "sticking probability", "post-test probability of disease", "Marginal probability", "p-value", "A priori probability", "conditional probability", "poker probability", "probability-generating function", "significance level", "quantum probability", "statistical significance", "probability of default", "Inclusion probability", "ecological resource availability", "economic resource availability", "Operational availability" ], "aliasCount": 27, "merged": 28, "knownIn": 144, "facets": null, "markers": [], "lexicalClass": "", "senseRank": null, "alsoRegisteredAs": "vr.tr.probability-attribute", "source": { "dataset": "wikidata", "item": "Q9492", "url": "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9492", "license": "CC0 1.0" } }, "research": { "vercy": "1.0-draft", "publication": { "status": "research-draft", "adjudicationStatus": "unreviewed", "publishableCanonical": false, "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T10:13:09Z", "providers": [ "Claude" ], "breadth": "written by Claude from model knowledge without web access - no source was read, every claim is a lead to verify", "pass": 2, "wave": 1, "engine": "claude" }, "metaModel": { "id": "THING-Q9492", "registryId": "vr.tr.probability", "name": "probability", "version": "0.2.0-wave.1", "entryKind": "thing", "family": "Thing Registry", "domain": [ "XCT.QLT" ], "status": "research-draft" }, "canonicalUrl": "https://ver.cy/models/thing/q9492/", "model": { "registry_id": "vr.tr.probability", "name": "probability", "purpose": "Let an agent handle probability by definition, interpretation, calculation and communication of risk, avoiding common fallacies.", "definition": "A numerical measure between 0 and 1 of how likely an event is, formalised by Kolmogorov axioms and interpreted in frequentist, Bayesian and other ways; related notions include joint, conditional and error probabilities.", "what_it_is_for": "Reasoning under uncertainty in science, engineering, medicine, finance and daily life.", "affordances": [ "compute probabilities of events", "apply conditional probability and Bayes theorem", "communicate risk clearly", "spot common fallacies" ], "distinguishing_features": [ "Measure of likelihood", "Axiomatic foundation", "Several interpretations", "Easily misunderstood" ], "appearance": "Not physical; numbers, fractions and percentages.", "visual_identification": [ "Values from 0 to 1 or 0 to 100 percent", "Notation P(A)", "Odds are a related but different expression" ], "physical_properties": [], "families_and_kinds": [ "classical probability", "frequentist probability", "Bayesian probability", "conditional and joint probability", "geometric probability" ], "related_models": [ { "relation": "is a kind of", "target": "mathematical object and dimensionless quantity", "why": "category" }, { "relation": "is studied by", "target": "probability theory and statistics", "why": "fields" }, { "relation": "is related to", "target": "odds and risk", "why": "expressions" }, { "relation": "is used in", "target": "decision making", "why": "application" } ], "identifiers": [], "standards_and_regulation": [ "ISO 3534 statistics vocabulary" ], "failure_modes_and_hazards": [ "Base rate neglect", "Gambler fallacy", "Confusing relative and absolute risk" ], "in_scope": [], "out_of_scope": [], "characteristics": [] }, "sources": [], "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "calculation", "name": "Calculation", "description": "Computing.", "rationale": "Rules compute probability.", "layers": [ { "id": "event", "name": "Event", "description": "Probability of event.", "findings": [ { "id": "event-finding", "name": "Event", "description": "Event probability.", "questions": [ { "text": "What is the probability of this event?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "text": "Which assumptions are used?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "conditional", "name": "Conditional", "description": "Bayes.", "findings": [ { "id": "conditional-finding", "name": "Conditional", "description": "Conditional probability.", "questions": [ { "text": "What is the probability given this evidence?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "text": "Is the base rate included?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "interpretation", "name": "Interpretation", "description": "Meaning.", "rationale": "Interpretations differ.", "layers": [ { "id": "meaning", "name": "Meaning", "description": "Frequentist or Bayesian.", "findings": [ { "id": "meaning-finding", "name": "Meaning", "description": "Interpretation.", "questions": [ { "text": "Is the probability a long-run frequency or a degree of belief?", "kind": "definition" }, { "text": "Does it matter here?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "model", "name": "Model", "description": "Assumptions.", "findings": [ { "id": "model-finding", "name": "Model", "description": "Model assumptions.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which model generates the probability?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "How sensitive is it to assumptions?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "communication", "name": "Communication", "description": "Risk.", "rationale": "Clear communication matters.", "layers": [ { "id": "format", "name": "Format", "description": "Natural frequencies.", "findings": [ { "id": "format-finding", "name": "Format", "description": "Risk format.", "questions": [ { "text": "Would natural frequencies such as 1 in 100 be clearer?", "kind": "action" }, { "text": "Is absolute risk given alongside relative risk?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "fallacies", "name": "Fallacies", "description": "Errors.", "findings": [ { "id": "fallacies-finding", "name": "Fallacies", "description": "Fallacies.", "questions": [ { "text": "Is a common fallacy such as the gambler fallacy involved?", "kind": "boundary" }, { "text": "How can it be corrected?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "applications", "name": "Applications", "description": "Uses.", "rationale": "Probability informs decisions.", "layers": [ { "id": "medical", "name": "Medical", "description": "Tests.", "findings": [ { "id": "medical-finding", "name": "Medical", "description": "Medical tests.", "questions": [ { "text": "What is the probability of disease given a positive test, in general terms?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "text": "Should results be discussed with a clinician?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] }, { "id": "gambling", "name": "Gambling", "description": "Odds.", "findings": [ { "id": "gambling-finding", "name": "Gambling", "description": "Gambling odds.", "questions": [ { "text": "What are the true odds compared with offered odds?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "text": "Where can someone get help with problem gambling?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "openQuestions": [ "Should interpretations be separate entries?", "How should risk communication guidance be linked?", "How should odds be related?" ], "statistics": { "bundles": 4, "layers": 8, "findings": 8, "questions": 16 } }, "draft": { "generator": "vr.draft.v3", "status": "draft-generated", "researched": false, "archetype": "abstract concept", "method": "Written from the archetype playbook - what this kind of thing needs beyond identity and provenance - and from the structure that recurred across 6,333 models already researched by two engines. Applied to this entry by rule. No source was read for this thing and no claim here is researched. This entry carries no facets of its own, so they were inferred from its domain - a guess about a whole domain applied to one thing.", "facetsInferred": true, "nextPass": "A researcher replaces this draft with a sourced specification. Treat every sentence below as a proposal to argue with.", "purpose": "Give an agent a durable, checkable way to recognise a probability, record what state it is in, and decide what may be done with it.", "whatItIs": "Let an agent handle probability by definition, interpretation, calculation and communication of risk, avoiding common fallacies.", "characteristics": { "substance": "abstract", "origin": "conceptual", "agency": "inert" }, "whatYouCanDoWithIt": [ "observed and measured" ], "distinguishingFeatures": [ "Names folded into this entry, which a task may need to split apart again: availability, loss probability, error probability, joint probability, topic probability, geometric probability, probability of acceptance, negative probability, confidence level, tail probability, Probability of precipitation, sticking probability.", "28 finer distinctions are held as aliases rather than separate entries, because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it.", "Described in 144 Wikipedia languages, which is a measure of how widely the thing is known, not of how important it is." ], "openQuestionsForResearch": [ "Which of the bundles below does a real task actually need, and which are ceremony?", "What does this thing have that the facets do not capture at all?", "Which neighbouring kind is most often confused with a probability, and on what evidence are they told apart?" ], "whatItIsMadeOf": "an abstraction with no physical instance", "physicalCharacter": [ "Does nothing on its own; everything it does, something else did to it.", "These come from the domain this entry sits in rather than from the entry itself, so treat them as a first guess about the whole domain applied to one thing." ], "whatCanBeDoneWithIt": [ "observe it, measure it, record its state" ], "howItIsRecognised": [ "Nothing to see. What is recognised is an instance of it, and which instances count is exactly what is argued about." ], "relatedModels": [ { "relation": "covers", "note": "Finer kinds folded into this entry because telling them apart needs a task that asks for it. Each is a model waiting to be split out when one does.", "targets": [ "availability", "loss probability", "error probability", "joint probability", "topic probability", "geometric probability", "probability of acceptance", "negative probability", "confidence level", "tail probability", "Probability of precipitation", "sticking probability" ] } ], "standing": "Described in 144 Wikipedia languages, which measures how widely it is written about rather than how important or how common it is. 28 finer distinctions are held inside this entry as names rather than as separate models.", "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "identity-and-classification", "name": "Identity, naming and classification", "description": "How an agent tells one probability from another, and a probability from things that resemble it.", "rationale": "Recognition comes before every other claim. Without stable identity nothing else in the model can be trusted to be about the same thing twice.", "layers": [ { "id": "naming-and-identifiers", "name": "Names and identifiers", "description": "The names this thing goes by and the identifiers that survive translation and time.", "findings": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases", "name": "Preferred name, aliases and local names", "description": "Which name to use, which names mean the same thing, and which merely sound similar.", "questions": [ { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the name of a probability, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the name of a probability, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "preferred-name-and-aliases-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the name of a probability is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers", "name": "Stable identifiers and external keys", "description": "Identifiers that keep pointing at this kind of thing across systems and languages.", "questions": [ { "id": "stable-identifiers-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an identifier for a probability, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an identifier for a probability, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stable-identifiers-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an identifier for a probability is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "classification-and-granularity", "name": "Classification and granularity", "description": "Where a probability sits among kinds, and how finely a task needs to cut it.", "findings": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents", "name": "Kind, parents and neighbouring kinds", "description": "The classes this thing belongs to and the ones it is next to.", "questions": [ { "id": "kind-and-parents-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the kind of a probability, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the kind of a probability, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "kind-and-parents-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the kind of a probability is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features", "name": "Distinguishing features", "description": "What separates a probability from the things most often confused with it.", "questions": [ { "id": "distinguishing-features-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes what distinguishes a probability, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about what distinguishes a probability, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "distinguishing-features-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once what distinguishes a probability is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "state-and-lifecycle", "name": "State and lifecycle", "description": "The states a probability passes through and the events that move it between them.", "rationale": "Most decisions about a thing depend on what state it is in now, which is a claim with a time on it, not a property.", "layers": [ { "id": "lifecycle-stages", "name": "Lifecycle stages", "description": "From coming into existence to ceasing to be one of these.", "findings": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions", "name": "Stages and transitions", "description": "The stages worth naming and what moves a probability between them.", "questions": [ { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the lifecycle of a probability, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the lifecycle of a probability, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "stages-and-transitions-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the lifecycle of a probability is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "observations-and-status", "name": "Observations and current status", "description": "What is observed about a probability, how often and by whom.", "findings": [ { "id": "observation-record", "name": "Observation record", "description": "How an observation of a probability is recorded so that it can be superseded rather than overwritten.", "questions": [ { "id": "observation-record-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes an observation of a probability, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about an observation of a probability, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "observation-record-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once an observation of a probability is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "definitions-in-contest", "name": "Definitions and who holds them", "description": "What probability is taken to mean, and by whom.", "rationale": "When a field disagrees about a concept, the disagreement is the content. A model that picks one definition silently destroys the information.", "layers": [ { "id": "competing-definitions", "name": "Competing definitions", "description": "The main readings and the traditions behind them.", "findings": [ { "id": "definition-map", "name": "Definitions and their holders", "description": "Each definition with the school or body that holds it.", "questions": [ { "id": "definition-map-q01", "text": "Which definitions of probability are in use, and which tradition or body holds each?", "kind": "definition" }, { "id": "definition-map-q02", "text": "What turns on the difference between them in practice?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "operationalisation", "name": "Operationalisation", "description": "How it is measured or applied when it has to be.", "findings": [ { "id": "operational-record", "name": "Measures and proxies", "description": "Instruments and indicators used to stand in for it.", "questions": [ { "id": "operational-record-q01", "text": "How is probability operationalised or measured in practice, and by what instrument?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "id": "operational-record-q02", "text": "What does that operationalisation leave out, and when does that matter?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "instances-and-use", "name": "Instances, use and consequence", "description": "What counts as an instance of probability and what follows from calling something that.", "rationale": "Applying a concept is an act with consequences, so a model must say what the label licenses and what it does not.", "layers": [ { "id": "instances", "name": "What counts as an instance", "description": "Clear cases, borderline cases and non-cases.", "findings": [ { "id": "instance-tests", "name": "Tests for an instance", "description": "What would settle whether something falls under it.", "questions": [ { "id": "instance-tests-q01", "text": "What would settle whether something is an instance of probability?", "kind": "boundary" }, { "id": "instance-tests-q02", "text": "Which borderline cases are argued about, and on what grounds?", "kind": "definition" } ] } ] }, { "id": "consequence", "name": "Consequence of application", "description": "Rights, duties or decisions that follow from the label.", "findings": [ { "id": "consequence-record", "name": "What the label licenses", "description": "What an agent may do once something is classified this way.", "questions": [ { "id": "consequence-record-q01", "text": "What follows practically once something is treated as probability?", "kind": "action" }, { "id": "consequence-record-q02", "text": "What must an agent not infer from the label alone?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "provenance-and-evidence", "name": "Provenance, evidence and time", "description": "Where every claim about a probability came from and when it held.", "rationale": "A claim without a source and a time cannot be superseded, only overwritten, and an agent that overwrites loses the ability to explain itself.", "layers": [ { "id": "source-and-authority", "name": "Source and authority", "description": "Who said it, on what evidence, and how strongly.", "findings": [ { "id": "claim-provenance", "name": "Claim provenance and confidence", "description": "The authority behind each claim about a probability and how confident it is.", "questions": [ { "id": "claim-provenance-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes a claim about a probability, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about a claim about a probability, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "claim-provenance-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once a claim about a probability is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "time-and-versions", "name": "Time, versions and supersession", "description": "When a claim was true, when it was learnt, and what replaced it.", "findings": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession", "name": "Validity period and supersession", "description": "How an old claim about a probability is retired without being erased.", "questions": [ { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q01", "text": "What identifies and describes the validity of a claim about a probability, and in what units or vocabulary?", "kind": "definition", "answer_data": [ "identifiers", "types and classes", "values with units", "explicit unknowns" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q02", "text": "Who or what asserted this about the validity of a claim about a probability, by which method, and when was it true?", "kind": "provenance", "answer_data": [ "authority", "method", "evidence", "event time", "knowledge time" ] }, { "id": "validity-and-supersession-q03", "text": "What may an agent decide or do once the validity of a claim about a probability is known, and what must it refuse?", "kind": "action", "answer_data": [ "permitted actions", "preconditions", "refusals", "escalation" ] } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "statistics": { "bundles": 5, "layers": 10, "findings": 12, "questions": 32 } } } }