{ "vercy": "1.0-draft", "publication": { "status": "research-draft", "adjudicationStatus": "unreviewed", "publishableCanonical": false, "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T04:26:33Z", "providers": [ "Claude" ], "breadth": "written by Claude from model knowledge without web access - no source was read, every claim is a lead to verify", "pass": 2, "wave": 1, "engine": "claude", "enrichment": { "pass": 3, "engine": "claude", "producedAt": "2026-10-05T15:00:00Z", "ingestedAt": "2026-10-05T13:11:18+00:00", "fields": [ "agent_conduct", "ethics", "owners" ] } }, "metaModel": { "id": "THING-Q1292121", "registryId": "vr.tr.shower-q1292121", "name": "shower", "version": "0.2.0-wave.1", "entryKind": "thing", "family": "Thing Registry", "domain": [ "XCT.STA" ], "status": "research-draft" }, "canonicalUrl": "https://ver.cy/models/thing/q1292121/", "model": { "registry_id": "vr.tr.shower-q1292121", "name": "shower", "purpose": "Let an agent distinguish showers from continuous precipitation and read shower forecasts as statements about probability and local variation.", "definition": "A short period of precipitation, rain, snow or hail, falling from convective cloud, starting and stopping abruptly and varying quickly in intensity.", "what_it_is_for": "Describing and forecasting convective precipitation, which behaves differently from widespread rain.", "affordances": [ "forecast it, usually as a probability over an area", "observe and report it, in weather observations with standard codes", "measure it, with rain gauges and radar", "plan around it, since it is brief and patchy" ], "distinguishing_features": [ "Convective origin, from cumulus or cumulonimbus clouds", "Sudden onset and end, and rapid changes in intensity", "Patchy: some places get heavy rain while nearby places stay dry", "The bathroom shower is a different sense and not covered here" ], "appearance": "A dark, often towering cumulus or cumulonimbus cloud with a visible curtain of precipitation beneath, and bright sky on either side.", "visual_identification": [ "Heaped convective cloud rather than a uniform grey layer", "Precipitation that starts and stops suddenly, with sunny spells between", "A rain curtain visible at a distance under an individual cloud" ], "physical_properties": [ { "quantity": "duration", "typical_range": "5-60", "unit": "minutes", "note": "longer events are usually not called showers" }, { "quantity": "rainfall rate", "typical_range": "1-50", "unit": "mm/h", "note": "heavy showers exceed 10 mm/h" }, { "quantity": "horizontal size", "typical_range": "1-20", "unit": "km", "note": "why showers are patchy" } ], "families_and_kinds": [ "rain showers, snow showers, hail showers, sleet showers", "by intensity: light, moderate, heavy", "sunshower: rain falling while the sun shines" ], "related_models": [ { "relation": "is a kind of", "target": "precipitation", "why": "inherits measurement and forecast questions" }, { "relation": "comes from", "target": "cumulonimbus or cumulus cloud", "why": "convective cloud is what makes a shower" }, { "relation": "is confused with", "target": "shower as a bathroom fixture", "why": "a homonym; this entry is meteorological" }, { "relation": "can become", "target": "thunderstorm", "why": "deep convection turns showers into storms" } ], "identifiers": [ { "scheme": "WMO present weather code", "value_or_pattern": "codes 80-90 in the SYNOP table", "note": "report shower types and intensities" } ], "standards_and_regulation": [ "WMO Manual on Codes for weather reports", "WMO International Cloud Atlas" ], "failure_modes_and_hazards": [ "Reading a shower probability as a forecast of continuous rain", "Flash flooding when heavy showers repeat over the same area", "Hail and lightning when showers deepen into storms" ], "in_scope": [], "out_of_scope": [], "characteristics": [], "agent_conduct": { "may": [ "Report observed and forecast showers from official weather sources.", "Adjust outdoor plans or operations it controls around expected showers." ], "must_not": [ "Present a shower probability as certainty of rain or of dry weather.", "Issue or imitate official severe weather warnings without authority.", "Ignore lightning or flash flood risk when guiding people outdoors." ], "requires_human": [ "Calling off outdoor activities or evacuating sites because of storms." ] }, "ethics": { "considerations": [ "Weather information guides safety decisions; overstating certainty misleads people." ], "affected_parties": [ "People outdoors", "Farmers and outdoor workers", "Event organizers" ] }, "owners": { "steward": "Nobody owns the weather; national meteorological services issue forecasts and warnings.", "master_systems": [ "National meteorological observation records" ] } }, "sources": [], "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "origin-and-type", "name": "Origin and type", "description": "What produces it and what falls.", "rationale": "Showers are defined by convective origin; the kind of precipitation is secondary.", "layers": [ { "id": "convection", "name": "Convective origin", "description": "The cloud and the instability behind it.", "findings": [ { "id": "convection-finding", "name": "Cloud type", "description": "The convective cloud producing the shower.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which cloud type produced this shower?", "kind": "definition" }, { "text": "What atmospheric instability drove it?", "kind": "definition" } ] } ] }, { "id": "type", "name": "Precipitation type", "description": "Rain, snow, hail or sleet.", "findings": [ { "id": "type-finding", "name": "Type of precipitation", "description": "What falls and why.", "questions": [ { "text": "What kind of precipitation fell, and at what temperatures?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "text": "Did the type change during the shower?", "kind": "measurement" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "observation", "name": "Observation and measurement", "description": "Recording what happened.", "rationale": "Showers are small and brief, so where and how they are measured decides what the record shows.", "layers": [ { "id": "reports", "name": "Weather reports", "description": "Coded observations.", "findings": [ { "id": "reports-finding", "name": "Coded observation", "description": "The report code and station.", "questions": [ { "text": "How was this shower reported, and with which code?", "kind": "provenance" }, { "text": "What did the report miss because of the station position?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] }, { "id": "amount", "name": "Amount and intensity", "description": "Gauge and radar data.", "findings": [ { "id": "amount-finding", "name": "Measured intensity", "description": "The rainfall rate and total.", "questions": [ { "text": "What rainfall rate and total did this shower produce?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "text": "How far do gauge and radar estimates agree?", "kind": "measurement" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "forecasting", "name": "Forecasting", "description": "Predicting showers.", "rationale": "Shower forecasts are probabilistic and area-based, and are often misread as point forecasts.", "layers": [ { "id": "probability", "name": "Probability", "description": "Chance of a shower over an area.", "findings": [ { "id": "probability-finding", "name": "Forecast probability", "description": "The probability and the area it refers to.", "questions": [ { "text": "What probability of showers is forecast, over what area and period?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "text": "How should that probability be explained to someone at one place?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] }, { "id": "skill", "name": "Forecast skill", "description": "How reliable the forecasts are.", "findings": [ { "id": "skill-finding", "name": "Verification", "description": "How forecasts compare with outcomes.", "questions": [ { "text": "How reliable are shower forecasts at this range?", "kind": "measurement" }, { "text": "Where do forecasts most often fail?", "kind": "boundary" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "impact", "name": "Impact", "description": "What showers do.", "rationale": "Most showers are harmless; the few that are not cause floods, hail damage and lightning casualties.", "layers": [ { "id": "hazards", "name": "Hazards", "description": "Flooding, hail and lightning.", "findings": [ { "id": "hazards-finding", "name": "Hazard assessment", "description": "The hazards associated with this shower.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which hazards did this shower carry?", "kind": "boundary" }, { "text": "When should a shower forecast trigger a warning?", "kind": "action" } ] } ] }, { "id": "activities", "name": "Effect on activities", "description": "Travel, events and outdoor work.", "findings": [ { "id": "activities-finding", "name": "Operational impact", "description": "The effect on planned activities.", "questions": [ { "text": "What activities does this shower disrupt?", "kind": "action" }, { "text": "How long is the disruption likely to last?", "kind": "measurement" } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "openQuestions": [ "Should shower types be separate entries or values of one?", "How should probabilistic forecasts of showers be represented for agents?", "Which thresholds separate a heavy shower from a storm in different services?" ], "statistics": { "bundles": 4, "layers": 8, "findings": 8, "questions": 16 } }