{ "vercy": "1.0-draft", "publication": { "status": "research-draft", "adjudicationStatus": "unreviewed", "publishableCanonical": false, "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:04:48Z", "providers": [ "Codex" ], "breadth": "recalled by Codex without web access - no source was read", "missingProviders": [], "pass": 2, "cost": { "grok": { "seconds": 21.9, "error": "Reading additional input from stdin...\nOpenAI Codex v0.153.4\n--------\nworkdir: R:\\02_PROJECTS\\02_Meta_Models_Platforms\\Ver.cy\\current\\thing-registry-backlog\nmodel: gpt-6-astra\nprovider: openai\napproval: never\nsandbox: read-only\nreasoning effort: none\nreasoning summaries: none\nsession id: 01a094db-9328-7250-991f-f0df36f80629\n--------\nuser\nDescribe what is already known about one registered thing. Answer as JSON only, no prose around it.\n\nThing: demographics of Rwanda\nSense to describe: (none recorded)\nDomain code: INF.KNW\nAlso known as: (none)\n\n\nContext for this batch of 1001 things:\n# Batch 04", "usd": 0.0, "recall": true }, "codex": { "seconds": 75.8, "error": "Reading additional input from stdin...\nOpenAI Codex v0.153.4\n--------\nworkdir: R:\\02_PROJECTS\\02_Meta_Models_Platforms\\Ver.cy\\current\\thing-registry-backlog\nmodel: gpt-6-astra\nprovider: openai\napproval: never\nsandbox: read-only\nreasoning effort: none\nreasoning summaries: none\nsession id: 01a094db-9320-7402-8257-196ff8450354\n--------\nuser\nYou are drafting a Vercy meta-model for one registered thing. Answer as JSON only, no prose around it.\n\nThing: demographics of Rwanda\nRegistry id: vr.tr.demographics-of-rwanda\nPlane / domain: INF / INF.KNW\nRegistry definition: (none recorded)\nNames folded into" } }, "enrichment": { "pass": 3, "engine": "claude", "producedAt": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "ingestedAt": "2026-10-06T08:37:54+00:00", "fields": [ "agent_conduct", "ethics", "owners" ] }, "gate": { "passed": true, "version": "1.0", "at": "2026-10-07T10:10:29+00:00", "evidence": [ "completeness 1.00", "sense: Wikidata description", "2 live sources", "review by codex: pass" ] } }, "metaModel": { "id": "THING-Q2454814", "registryId": "vr.tr.demographics-of-rwanda", "name": "demographics of Rwanda", "version": "0.1.0-research.1", "entryKind": "thing", "family": "Thing Registry", "domain": [ "INF.KNW" ], "status": "research-draft" }, "canonicalUrl": "https://ver.cy/models/thing/q2454814/", "model": { "registry_id": "vr.tr.demographics-of-rwanda", "name": "demographics of Rwanda", "purpose": "Enable an AI agent to recognise, compare and responsibly use evidence about Rwanda's population size, composition, distribution and change.", "definition": "Demographics of Rwanda is the description and analysis of the size, composition, spatial distribution and change of Rwanda's population through fertility, mortality and migration.", "scope_statement": "This model owns the demographic description of populations counted within Rwanda, with explicit reference dates, territorial boundaries, residence rules and evidence status; it treats demographics of Rwanda as a country-specific knowledge subject rather than a separate academic discipline.", "in_scope": [ "Population counts, estimates and projections for Rwanda with their reference dates and population universes", "Age, sex and household composition and other explicitly sourced population classifications", "Population distribution across Rwanda's administrative areas and urban and rural settlements", "Fertility, mortality and migration as components of population change", "Source coverage, uncertainty and comparability across demographic observations" ], "out_of_scope": [ "Individual resident records, identity verification and personal profiling", "The general theories and institutions of demography", "Rwanda's political and social history except where needed to interpret demographic evidence", "Economic performance and public-service provision except as contextual relationships", "Rwandan citizens abroad as a standalone diaspora population", "Ethnic identity assignment inferred from names, language, location or ancestry" ], "distinguishing_features": [ "An observation qualifies only when its population universe explicitly concerns Rwanda; a regional average cannot substitute for a Rwanda estimate.", "Resident population, people physically present and Rwandan citizenship are distinct universes and must not be silently combined.", "The subject describes populations and demographic processes; it is neither Rwanda as a territory nor demography as a general discipline.", "Counts, rates and projections require reference periods and methods; a future projection is not an observed population state.", "Subnational comparisons require compatible territorial boundaries and settlement definitions, rather than matching place names alone." ], "characteristics": [ { "name": "Population universe", "kind": "category", "unit_or_values": "Usual residents, persons present, citizens or another source-defined population", "why_it_matters": "Determines whether residents abroad, visitors, refugees and other groups belong in a reported total." }, { "name": "Reference time", "kind": "category", "unit_or_values": "Census reference date, estimate date or demographic event interval", "why_it_matters": "Prevents figures about different moments or periods from being treated as simultaneous." }, { "name": "Population size", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Persons, with uncertainty or coverage qualifications where available", "why_it_matters": "Provides the population stock against which demographic change and subgroup shares are interpreted." }, { "name": "Age and sex composition", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Persons or percentages by source-defined age groups and recorded sex categories", "why_it_matters": "Supports population-pyramid interpretation and dependency measures with explicit definitions." }, { "name": "Geographic correspondence", "kind": "relation", "unit_or_values": "Observation linked to a dated national or subnational boundary definition", "why_it_matters": "Makes Rwanda-wide, Kigali and other subnational observations spatially interpretable." }, { "name": "Population density", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Persons per square kilometre, specifying land or total area", "why_it_matters": "Distinguishes population concentration from population size and exposes denominator differences." }, { "name": "Fertility and mortality", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Indicator-specific units, such as births per woman, deaths per 1,000 population or life expectancy in years", "why_it_matters": "Separates demographic mechanisms whose denominators and estimation methods differ." }, { "name": "Migration balance", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Immigrants minus emigrants over a stated interval; internal flows recorded separately", "why_it_matters": "Distinguishes redistribution within Rwanda from changes to the national population." }, { "name": "Evidence status", "kind": "state", "unit_or_values": "Enumerated, survey-estimated, administratively recorded, model-estimated or projected; provisional or revised", "why_it_matters": "Determines what claims and comparisons the evidence can support." } ], "affordances": [ "Assemble a dated demographic profile of Rwanda with traceable population definitions.", "Compare national and subnational observations after checking boundaries, denominators and methods.", "Explain population change through births, deaths and migration while retaining unexplained discrepancies.", "Inspect age structure, household composition and settlement patterns without inferring individual attributes.", "Evaluate demographic projections as conditional scenarios and identify evidence gaps before using them." ], "agent_conduct": { "may": [ "Report Rwanda's population size, age structure and growth from official and cited sources.", "Explain changes in fertility, mortality and urbanization with their reference dates." ], "must_not": [ "Reconstruct or assign ethnic classifications to individuals or areas in Rwanda.", "Present demographic data in a way that revives group divisions linked to the 1994 genocide.", "Treat survey estimates as complete counts or hide their margins of error.", "Disclose data that could identify individual survivors, returnees or refugees." ], "requires_human": [ "Publishing any analysis that touches on group identity in Rwanda." ] }, "ethics": { "considerations": [ "Population categories were once used to target people for killing; their use carries lasting weight.", "Accurate data supports health and planning for one of Africa's most densely populated countries." ], "affected_parties": [ "Genocide survivors and their families", "Refugees and returnees", "Residents of Rwanda" ] }, "owners": { "steward": "The national statistics office of Rwanda answers for official figures.", "master_systems": [ "National statistics office census and survey records" ] }, "what_it_is_for": [ "Demographic information about Rwanda is used in population censuses, household surveys, research and public planning.", "It supports comparisons of population change and service needs across places and periods when definitions, coverage and uncertainty are recorded." ], "standards_and_regulation": [ "The Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses, issued by the United Nations Statistics Division, provide international guidance for census concepts and methods.", "The International Standard Classification of Education, issued by UNESCO, supports comparable classification of educational attainment in population statistics." ], "failure_modes_and_hazards": [ "Combining statistics with different reference dates or population definitions can produce misleading trends and resource allocations.", "Publishing identifiable or highly granular population records can expose individuals and communities to privacy violations.", "Treating demographic categories as fixed explanations of individual behaviour can reinforce discrimination and historical prejudice.", "Ignoring undercount, sampling error or migration uncertainty can create unjustified confidence in population estimates." ], "facets_not_applicable": { "recognition": "Demographics is an analytical description of a population and has no intrinsic visual identity." } }, "sources": [ { "id": "wikidata", "title": "Wikidata item Q2454814: demographics of Rwanda", "url": "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2454814", "url_status": "live", "what_it_supports": "identity and sense of the item", "checked_by": "wikidata-api" }, { "id": "wikipedia-en", "title": "Wikipedia: Demographics of Rwanda", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Rwanda", "url_status": "live", "what_it_supports": "general description of the item", "checked_by": "wikidata-api sitelink" } ], "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "rwanda-population-universe", "name": "Rwanda population universe", "description": "Defines who is counted in a demographic statement about Rwanda and when that statement applies.", "rationale": "Figures labelled as Rwanda's population can refer to different residence, citizenship and presence rules.", "layers": [ { "id": "residence-and-membership", "name": "Residence and membership", "description": "Separates the resident population from citizenship and physical presence.", "findings": [ { "id": "population-inclusion-rules", "name": "Population inclusion rules", "description": "Record the source's inclusion rules for ordinary households, collective accommodation, temporary absences and mobile populations.", "questions": [ { "text": "Does this Rwanda total count usual residents, persons present, citizens or another explicitly defined universe?", "kind": "definition", "id": "population-inclusion-rules-q01" }, { "text": "How does the source include or exclude refugees, foreign residents, visitors and Rwandans living abroad?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "population-inclusion-rules-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "reference-date-and-stock", "name": "Reference date and stock", "description": "Anchors population totals to a specific moment and observation type.", "findings": [ { "id": "dated-population-total", "name": "Dated population total", "description": "Represent Rwanda's population total as a dated observation, estimate or projection rather than a timeless attribute.", "questions": [ { "text": "What exact reference date and geographic coverage apply to the reported total?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "dated-population-total-q01" }, { "text": "Was the total enumerated, adjusted from an enumeration, estimated between observations or projected forward?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "dated-population-total-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "rwanda-territory-and-settlement", "name": "Rwanda territory and settlement", "description": "Organises demographic evidence by dated administrative geography and settlement definitions.", "rationale": "Kigali, other settlements and rural areas need comparable spatial units before their population patterns can be interpreted.", "layers": [ { "id": "administrative-geography", "name": "Administrative geography", "description": "Connects observations to the territorial units used by their sources.", "findings": [ { "id": "boundary-compatible-populations", "name": "Boundary-compatible populations", "description": "Record the applicable province, district, sector or other source-defined geography and any crosswalk needed for comparison.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which version of Rwanda's administrative boundaries underlies each subnational figure?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "boundary-compatible-populations-q01" }, { "text": "Can observations be compared directly, or must they be aggregated or translated through a documented boundary crosswalk?", "kind": "action", "id": "boundary-compatible-populations-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "urban-rural-concentration", "name": "Urban and rural concentration", "description": "Distinguishes administrative location, settlement classification and population density.", "findings": [ { "id": "settlement-definition-and-density", "name": "Settlement definition and density", "description": "Keep Kigali's administrative population distinct from any built-up-area measure and record the classification behind urban shares.", "questions": [ { "text": "How does the source define urban and rural populations, and does its Kigali figure use administrative or settlement boundaries?", "kind": "definition", "id": "settlement-definition-and-density-q01" }, { "text": "Which population date and land-area definition produce each reported density, and are they consistent across areas?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "settlement-definition-and-density-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "rwanda-population-composition", "name": "Rwanda population composition", "description": "Describes age, sex, households and source-defined social classifications without assigning attributes to individuals.", "rationale": "A national population total cannot reveal cohort structure, household arrangements or the limits of available classifications.", "layers": [ { "id": "age-sex-and-cohorts", "name": "Age, sex and cohorts", "description": "Supports population pyramids and cohort comparisons using explicit categories.", "findings": [ { "id": "cohort-structure", "name": "Cohort structure", "description": "Record age and sex distributions, category definitions and quality checks before interpreting differences between cohorts.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which age bands, recorded sex categories and unknown-value treatments are used in Rwanda's source tables?", "kind": "definition", "id": "cohort-structure-q01" }, { "text": "Are apparent cohort gaps or imbalances supported by evidence after checking age misreporting, coverage and migration?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "cohort-structure-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "households-and-social-categories", "name": "Households and social categories", "description": "Records household organisation and only those social categories explicitly supported by a source.", "findings": [ { "id": "household-and-classification-meaning", "name": "Household and classification meaning", "description": "Distinguish households from families and preserve how language, religion, nationality or other reported categories were elicited.", "questions": [ { "text": "How are private households, family relationships and collective living arrangements defined in the Rwanda source?", "kind": "definition", "id": "household-and-classification-meaning-q01" }, { "text": "Which social classifications were actually collected, through what question wording, and which are unavailable or unsuitable for comparison?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "household-and-classification-meaning-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "rwanda-demographic-change", "name": "Rwanda demographic change", "description": "Connects population stocks through fertility, mortality and migration.", "rationale": "An agent must distinguish the mechanisms of national change from internal redistribution and measurement differences.", "layers": [ { "id": "births-deaths-and-survival", "name": "Births, deaths and survival", "description": "Describes natural population change and its age-specific mechanisms.", "findings": [ { "id": "fertility-and-mortality-evidence", "name": "Fertility and mortality evidence", "description": "Keep recorded events, retrospective survey estimates and modelled rates distinct, with their exposure periods and uncertainty.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which Rwanda sources support the birth, fertility, death and survival indicators, and how complete is their event coverage?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "fertility-and-mortality-evidence-q01" }, { "text": "What reference periods, denominators and estimation assumptions apply to each indicator?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "fertility-and-mortality-evidence-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "migration-and-population-accounting", "name": "Migration and population accounting", "description": "Separates cross-border movement, internal relocation and residual discrepancies.", "findings": [ { "id": "movement-and-stock-reconciliation", "name": "Movement and stock reconciliation", "description": "Relate successive Rwanda population totals to births, deaths and net international migration while treating internal moves as subnational redistribution.", "questions": [ { "text": "Do migration figures measure moves during an interval, previous residence, birthplace or nationality, and how are returns and displacement treated?", "kind": "definition", "id": "movement-and-stock-reconciliation-q01" }, { "text": "Can successive totals be reconciled with births, deaths and net migration, and what residual remains after boundary and coverage adjustments?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "movement-and-stock-reconciliation-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "rwanda-evidence-and-interpretation", "name": "Rwanda evidence and interpretation", "description": "Governs source selection, historical comparability and conditional use of projections.", "rationale": "Demographic evidence about Rwanda must remain traceable across statistical revisions, historical discontinuities and differing estimation methods.", "layers": [ { "id": "source-lineage-and-comparability", "name": "Source lineage and comparability", "description": "Tracks original observations, derivative estimates and limits on historical interpretation.", "findings": [ { "id": "traceable-demographic-series", "name": "Traceable demographic series", "description": "Link each series to its originating publication, methods and revisions, and flag discontinuities requiring separate historical evidence.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which original Rwanda census, survey, registration publication or documented estimation release supports each value?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "traceable-demographic-series-q01" }, { "text": "What source-supported qualifications are required when comparing periods before, during and after the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi, including displacement and coverage changes?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "traceable-demographic-series-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "projections-and-permitted-inference", "name": "Projections and permitted inference", "description": "Determines which comparisons, summaries and future scenarios the evidence can support.", "findings": [ { "id": "conditional-demographic-use", "name": "Conditional demographic use", "description": "Expose projection assumptions and evidence limitations before applying demographic figures to planning or explanatory claims.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which baseline population and fertility, mortality and migration assumptions generate the Rwanda projection, and what alternatives are supplied?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "conditional-demographic-use-q01" }, { "text": "Which intended comparisons or planning uses are supported, and which require newer observations, finer geography or additional causal evidence?", "kind": "action", "id": "conditional-demographic-use-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "evidence-and-external-alignment", "name": "Evidence and external alignment", "description": "What the world already says about this thing, gathered so the model can be checked against it.", "rationale": "A model that cannot be lined up against existing standards, identifiers and practice cannot be adopted by anyone who already uses them.", "layers": [ { "id": "reported-evidence", "name": "Reported evidence", "description": "Findings from the breadth pass, kept separate from the structural claims.", "findings": [ { "id": "evidence-confidence-notes", "name": "Check these first", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "This is a country-specific statistical subject, not necessarily an independently institutionalised academic discipline.", "The National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda is the principal national statistical institution; its census and survey publications should be checked for numerical claims.", "No sources were consulted for this recall response; current values, geographic definitions and uncertainty require verification." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-confidence-notes-q01", "text": "Which of these check these first hold for the sense of demographics of Rwanda this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-kinds", "name": "Kinds and varieties", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "Population size and growth", "Age and sex composition", "Fertility and reproductive patterns", "Mortality and survival", "Migration and population redistribution", "Household composition and settlement patterns" ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-kinds-q01", "text": "Which of these kinds and varieties hold for the sense of demographics of Rwanda this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-identifiers", "name": "Identifiers and schemes", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ { "scheme": "ISO 3166-1", "value_or_pattern": "RW / RWA / 646", "note": "Identifies Rwanda as the geographic subject, not demographics as a field." }, { "scheme": "United Nations M49", "value_or_pattern": "646", "note": "Statistical country code for Rwanda." } ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-identifiers-q01", "text": "Which of these identifiers and schemes hold for the sense of demographics of Rwanda this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-standards-and-regulation", "name": "Standards and regulation", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "United Nations Statistics Division: Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses.", "United Nations Statistics Division: Principles and Recommendations for a Vital Statistics System." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-standards-and-regulation-q01", "text": "Which of these standards and regulation hold for the sense of demographics of Rwanda this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-real-world-use", "name": "Real-world use", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "Planning schools, healthcare facilities and other public services.", "Estimating demand for housing, water and transport.", "Projecting labour supply and dependency patterns.", "Monitoring fertility, mortality and population health.", "Allocating resources across administrative areas." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-real-world-use-q01", "text": "Which of these real-world use hold for the sense of demographics of Rwanda this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-failure-modes-and-hazards", "name": "Failure modes and hazards", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "Treating census counts, survey estimates and population projections as interchangeable.", "Comparing urban populations across years without checking urban definitions and boundary changes.", "Ignoring undercount, incomplete birth and death registration, or survey uncertainty.", "Misreading population changes without accounting for the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi, displacement and subsequent return migration.", "Treating ethnic categories as fixed biological divisions or inferring present population shares from historical classifications." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-failure-modes-and-hazards-q01", "text": "Which of these failure modes and hazards hold for the sense of demographics of Rwanda this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-regional-variation", "name": "Regional variation", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "Kigali and rural areas differ in settlement density, migration patterns and household circumstances.", "District comparisons require consistent administrative boundaries and reference dates.", "Cross-border migration and refugee movements require distinguishing usual residents, refugees and temporary populations." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-regional-variation-q01", "text": "Which of these regional variation hold for the sense of demographics of Rwanda this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-neighbours", "name": "Neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ { "name": "Demography", "difference": "Demography supplies general population theories and methods; demographics of Rwanda applies them to a particular national population." }, { "name": "Geography of Rwanda", "difference": "Geography also covers physical environments and spatial relationships beyond human population characteristics." }, { "name": "Rwandan diaspora", "difference": "The diaspora concerns people of Rwandan origin living abroad; Rwanda's resident population is defined primarily by residence." }, { "name": "Public health in Rwanda", "difference": "Public health concerns health outcomes and interventions; demographics also covers population size, composition, settlement and migration." } ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-neighbours-q01", "text": "Which of these neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart hold for the sense of demographics of Rwanda this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "openQuestions": [ "Which Rwanda census releases, household surveys and population estimates should anchor the model, and have any been revised or superseded?", "Which administrative-boundary and urban-classification crosswalks permit defensible comparison of Kigali and other areas over time?", "How completely do available sources cover refugees, returnees, collective households and other populations that may differ across residence rules?", "Which historical series can be compared across the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi and associated displacement without unsupported reconstruction?", "Which social classifications and subnational projection scenarios are documented well enough to include, and what uncertainty must accompany them?" ], "statistics": { "bundles": 6, "layers": 11, "findings": 18, "questions": 28 } }