{ "vercy": "1.0-draft", "publication": { "status": "research-draft", "adjudicationStatus": "unreviewed", "publishableCanonical": false, "generatedAt": "2026-09-12T09:05:34Z", "providers": [ "Codex" ], "breadth": "recalled by Codex without web access - no source was read", "missingProviders": [], "pass": 2, "cost": { "grok": { "seconds": 25.8, "error": "Reading additional input from stdin...\nOpenAI Codex v0.153.4\n--------\nworkdir: R:\\02_PROJECTS\\02_Meta_Models_Platforms\\Ver.cy\\current\\thing-registry-backlog\nmodel: gpt-6-astra\nprovider: openai\napproval: never\nsandbox: read-only\nreasoning effort: none\nreasoning summaries: none\nsession id: 01a094dc-40bf-7013-94d2-a54121cdc5a4\n--------\nuser\nDescribe what is already known about one registered thing. Answer as JSON only, no prose around it.\n\nThing: demographics of Tunisia\nSense to describe: (none recorded)\nDomain code: INF.KNW\nAlso known as: (none)\n\n\nContext for this batch of 1001 things:\n# Batch 0", "usd": 0.0, "recall": true }, "codex": { "seconds": 77.6, "error": "Reading additional input from stdin...\nOpenAI Codex v0.153.4\n--------\nworkdir: R:\\02_PROJECTS\\02_Meta_Models_Platforms\\Ver.cy\\current\\thing-registry-backlog\nmodel: gpt-6-astra\nprovider: openai\napproval: never\nsandbox: read-only\nreasoning effort: none\nreasoning summaries: none\nsession id: 01a094dc-40b1-7061-8503-4d0cb5695d7d\n--------\nuser\nYou are drafting a Vercy meta-model for one registered thing. Answer as JSON only, no prose around it.\n\nThing: demographics of Tunisia\nRegistry id: vr.tr.demographics-of-tunisia\nPlane / domain: INF / INF.KNW\nRegistry definition: (none recorded)\nNames folded in" } }, "enrichment": { "pass": 3, "engine": "claude", "producedAt": "2026-10-06T12:00:00Z", "ingestedAt": "2026-10-06T08:37:54+00:00", "fields": [ "agent_conduct", "ethics", "owners" ] }, "gate": { "passed": true, "version": "1.0", "at": "2026-10-07T10:10:29+00:00", "evidence": [ "completeness 1.00", "sense: Wikidata description", "2 live sources", "review by codex: pass" ] } }, "metaModel": { "id": "THING-Q2587341", "registryId": "vr.tr.demographics-of-tunisia", "name": "demographics of Tunisia", "version": "0.1.0-research.1", "entryKind": "thing", "family": "Thing Registry", "domain": [ "INF.KNW" ], "status": "research-draft" }, "canonicalUrl": "https://ver.cy/models/thing/q2587341/", "model": { "registry_id": "vr.tr.demographics-of-tunisia", "name": "demographics of Tunisia", "purpose": "Enable an agent to interpret, compare and assess demographic evidence about Tunisia while preserving population boundaries, reference dates and uncertainty.", "definition": "The demographics of Tunisia is the statistical study and description of the size, distribution, composition and change of Tunisia's population through births, deaths and migration.", "scope_statement": "This model owns the organized demographic description of populations residing in Tunisia, including their size, composition, geographic distribution and change; it treats Tunisian citizens abroad as a related population whose inclusion must be explicit.", "in_scope": [ "Population counts and estimates with explicit residence, territorial and temporal coverage", "Age and sex composition, household structure and demographic dependency", "Births, fertility, deaths, mortality and population ageing", "Population distribution and internal migration across Tunisian governorates and smaller statistical areas", "International migration and its contribution to Tunisia's resident population", "Comparability, uncertainty and provenance of demographic observations and projections" ], "out_of_scope": [ "Tunisia as a state, territory or political system", "Demography as a general academic discipline", "Individual identity records or identifiable household microdata", "The Tunisian diaspora as a comprehensive social and cultural subject", "Economic performance, healthcare provision or education systems beyond their demographic relationships", "Ethnic, religious or linguistic histories unsupported by demographic measurement" ], "distinguishing_features": [ "An observation belongs here when it describes a population connected to Tunisia through an explicit residence or demographic accounting rule, rather than merely Tunisian nationality.", "A statistic must identify its reference date or interval; figures from different census rounds, estimates and projections are not interchangeable population counts.", "Governorate or locality comparisons require matching territorial boundaries and settlement definitions, rather than matching place names alone.", "Births, deaths and migration describe demographic change; tourism arrivals and border crossings count movements unless evidence establishes changes of residence.", "The thing is a country-specific body of demographic knowledge, rather than Tunisia itself, its residents individually or the discipline that studies them." ], "characteristics": [ { "name": "Population universe", "kind": "category", "unit_or_values": "Usual residents; persons present; citizens; other explicitly defined coverage", "why_it_matters": "Determines whether foreign residents, temporarily absent residents and Tunisians abroad are included." }, { "name": "Reference time", "kind": "relation", "unit_or_values": "Census date, estimate date, observation interval or projection horizon", "why_it_matters": "Prevents comparisons between quantities describing different periods." }, { "name": "Resident population size", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Persons, with coverage and uncertainty where available", "why_it_matters": "Provides the population base for demographic interpretation and denominators." }, { "name": "Age and sex composition", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Persons or percentage by documented age bands and source-defined sex categories", "why_it_matters": "Supports assessment of cohort change, ageing and demographic dependency." }, { "name": "Territorial reference", "kind": "relation", "unit_or_values": "Tunisia, governorate, municipality or other statistical area with boundary version", "why_it_matters": "Makes regional comparisons and aggregation defensible." }, { "name": "Fertility level", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Births per woman for total fertility rate; births per 1,000 women for specified age-specific rates", "why_it_matters": "Distinguishes reproductive patterns from changes caused by population age composition." }, { "name": "Mortality level", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Deaths per 1,000 persons for a specified period; life expectancy in years", "why_it_matters": "Separates observed death frequency from summary survival measures." }, { "name": "Migration balance", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Immigrants minus emigrants in persons per stated interval, under a documented residence rule", "why_it_matters": "Connects cross-border changes of residence to population change." }, { "name": "Household composition", "kind": "measurement", "unit_or_values": "Persons per household and proportions by source-defined household type", "why_it_matters": "Describes living arrangements without equating households with families." }, { "name": "Evidence status", "kind": "state", "unit_or_values": "Census observation; registration statistic; survey estimate; modeled estimate; projection; provisional or revised", "why_it_matters": "Controls which comparisons and conclusions the evidence can support." } ], "affordances": [ "Compare Tunisian demographic observations after checking population universes, dates and territorial boundaries.", "Construct governorate demographic profiles using compatible age, sex and population denominators.", "Assess whether births, deaths and migration reconcile with observed population change.", "Identify missing coverage, conflicting estimates and revisions requiring further research.", "Explore population projections as conditional scenarios with explicit assumptions.", "Explain which demographic evidence can support a planning question and which additional evidence it needs." ], "agent_conduct": { "may": [ "Report Tunisia's population by governorate with source, reference date and population universe.", "Describe trends in fertility, ageing and emigration with cited data." ], "must_not": [ "Mix figures for residents, citizens abroad and migrants in transit without saying so.", "Use migration figures to portray migrants passing through Tunisia as a threat.", "Present outdated census figures as current.", "Identify individuals from small-area or survey microdata." ], "requires_human": [ "Publishing figures on irregular migration that may shape enforcement decisions." ] }, "ethics": { "considerations": [ "Migration statistics are politically charged and can fuel hostility toward Black African migrants.", "Regional gaps between coastal and interior governorates matter for fair public investment." ], "affected_parties": [ "Residents of Tunisia", "Migrants and asylum seekers", "Tunisians abroad" ] }, "owners": { "steward": "The national statistics institute of Tunisia answers for official figures.", "master_systems": [ "National statistics office census and survey records" ] }, "what_it_is_for": [ "This subject is encountered in censuses, civil registration statistics, household surveys and population projections for Tunisia.", "It supports assessment of settlement patterns, age structure and population change for public services and research." ], "standards_and_regulation": [ "The Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses, issued by the United Nations Statistics Division, provide guidance for collecting and reporting census evidence.", "The Standard Country or Area Codes for Statistical Use, maintained by the United Nations Statistics Division, identify Tunisia within the M49 geographic classification." ], "failure_modes_and_hazards": [ "Mixing resident populations with citizenship-based counts can misrepresent population size and migration.", "Ignoring survey uncertainty or changes in administrative boundaries can create false demographic trends.", "Using aggregated demographic characteristics to judge individuals can reinforce discrimination." ], "facets_not_applicable": { "recognition": "Demographics is statistical information whose identity cannot be established through physical appearance." } }, "sources": [ { "id": "wikidata", "title": "Wikidata item Q2587341: demographics of Tunisia", "url": "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2587341", "url_status": "live", "what_it_supports": "identity and sense of the item", "checked_by": "wikidata-api" }, { "id": "wikipedia-en", "title": "Wikipedia: Demographics of Tunisia", "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Tunisia", "url_status": "live", "what_it_supports": "general description of the item", "checked_by": "wikidata-api sitelink" } ], "structure": { "bundles": [ { "id": "population-coverage-and-evidence", "name": "Population coverage and evidence", "description": "Establishes which population a demographic statement about Tunisia describes and how that statement was produced.", "rationale": "Resident population, Tunisian citizenship and physical presence can define different populations.", "layers": [ { "id": "residence-and-membership", "name": "Residence and membership", "description": "Determines inclusion rules for people connected to Tunisia.", "findings": [ { "id": "population-universe-boundary", "name": "Population universe boundary", "description": "Record the source's residence rule and treatment of foreign residents, temporary absences and Tunisians living abroad before interpreting its totals.", "questions": [ { "text": "Does this Tunisian population figure count usual residents, persons present or citizens?", "kind": "definition", "id": "population-universe-boundary-q01" }, { "text": "How does its coverage treat foreign residents, temporarily absent residents and Tunisians established abroad?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "population-universe-boundary-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "statistical-origin-and-vintage", "name": "Statistical origin and vintage", "description": "Separates observed counts from estimates and preserves revisions.", "findings": [ { "id": "traceable-demographic-release", "name": "Traceable demographic release", "description": "Each quantity needs an identifiable release, reference period, production method and revision status, including when a national figure is reproduced internationally.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which release from Tunisia's statistical authorities or another identified producer supplies this figure, and what period does it describe?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "traceable-demographic-release-q01" }, { "text": "Is it a census count, registration result, survey estimate, modeled estimate or projection, and has it been revised?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "traceable-demographic-release-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "territorial-distribution-and-settlement", "name": "Territorial distribution and settlement", "description": "Describes where people live within Tunisia using explicit geographic units and settlement classifications.", "rationale": "National totals cannot reveal geographic differences, and administrative or classification changes can imitate demographic change.", "layers": [ { "id": "governorates-and-statistical-areas", "name": "Governorates and statistical areas", "description": "Anchors subnational observations to compatible boundaries.", "findings": [ { "id": "boundary-compatible-regional-comparison", "name": "Boundary-compatible regional comparison", "description": "Governorate and smaller-area counts require dated geographic definitions and an explicit method for comparison across boundary changes.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which governorate or smaller statistical area does this observation cover, and which boundary version applies?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "boundary-compatible-regional-comparison-q01" }, { "text": "Can the Tunisian releases being compared be harmonized to common areas without unsupported allocation of residents?", "kind": "action", "id": "boundary-compatible-regional-comparison-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "urbanization-and-internal-redistribution", "name": "Urbanization and internal redistribution", "description": "Distinguishes settlement classification from movement between places.", "findings": [ { "id": "settlement-change-components", "name": "Settlement change components", "description": "Changes in urban or regional population should distinguish natural increase, internal migration and reclassification rather than infer migration from growth alone.", "questions": [ { "text": "How does the relevant Tunisian source define urban, rural or municipal populations?", "kind": "definition", "id": "settlement-change-components-q01" }, { "text": "What evidence separates migration toward Greater Tunis or other urban areas from natural increase and settlement reclassification?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "settlement-change-components-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "population-composition-and-households", "name": "Population composition and households", "description": "Organizes age, sex and living-arrangement evidence for Tunisia's population.", "rationale": "Population size alone does not establish cohort structure, ageing or household-level needs.", "layers": [ { "id": "age-sex-and-cohorts", "name": "Age, sex and cohorts", "description": "Preserves demographic composition and the definitions behind derived ratios.", "findings": [ { "id": "comparable-age-structure", "name": "Comparable age structure", "description": "Age distributions and dependency measures require documented age bands, sex categories and treatment of missing ages; age-based dependency does not measure actual financial dependence.", "questions": [ { "text": "Which age bands and source-defined sex categories are available consistently across Tunisian census or survey releases?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "comparable-age-structure-q01" }, { "text": "Which age thresholds define youth, older population and demographic dependency in the selected comparison?", "kind": "definition", "id": "comparable-age-structure-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "households-and-living-arrangements", "name": "Households and living arrangements", "description": "Captures household formation and composition without treating household and family as synonyms.", "findings": [ { "id": "household-unit-and-coverage", "name": "Household unit and coverage", "description": "Household size and composition depend on membership rules and the treatment of collective accommodation and people outside ordinary households.", "questions": [ { "text": "How does the Tunisian source define household membership and distinguish households from families?", "kind": "definition", "id": "household-unit-and-coverage-q01" }, { "text": "Are collective accommodation residents and people outside ordinary households included in the population denominator used here?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "household-unit-and-coverage-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "births-deaths-and-population-renewal", "name": "Births, deaths and population renewal", "description": "Describes fertility, mortality and their contribution to population change in Tunisia.", "rationale": "Birth and death totals, crude rates and age-standardized measures answer different demographic questions.", "layers": [ { "id": "births-and-fertility", "name": "Births and fertility", "description": "Connects recorded births to the population exposed to childbearing.", "findings": [ { "id": "fertility-measure-and-registration", "name": "Fertility measure and registration", "description": "Distinguish birth counts, crude birth rates and fertility measures, preserving occurrence dates, registration timing and maternal residence where available.", "questions": [ { "text": "Are births assigned to Tunisia and its governorates by maternal residence or place of occurrence, and by occurrence year or registration year?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "fertility-measure-and-registration-q01" }, { "text": "Which source and estimation method support the fertility measure, and how are delayed or missing registrations handled?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "fertility-measure-and-registration-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "mortality-and-survival", "name": "Mortality and survival", "description": "Distinguishes death frequency, age-specific mortality and life-table summaries.", "findings": [ { "id": "mortality-comparability", "name": "Mortality comparability", "description": "Mortality comparisons need consistent death coverage and age treatment; life expectancy additionally requires a documented life table and reference period.", "questions": [ { "text": "What evidence establishes the completeness and residence coverage of deaths recorded for Tunisia?", "kind": "provenance", "id": "mortality-comparability-q01" }, { "text": "Does the comparison use crude mortality, age-specific or standardized rates, or life expectancy from a specified life table?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "mortality-comparability-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "migration-population-balance-and-outlook", "name": "Migration, population balance and outlook", "description": "Connects international migration to demographic accounting and conditional population futures.", "rationale": "Tunisia's resident population must be distinguished from diaspora totals and border movements, while projections must retain their assumptions.", "layers": [ { "id": "international-migration-and-diaspora-boundary", "name": "International migration and diaspora boundary", "description": "Separates migrant stocks, changes of residence and nationality-based populations abroad.", "findings": [ { "id": "migration-stock-flow-distinction", "name": "Migration stock-flow distinction", "description": "Foreign-born residents, foreign nationals, emigrants and Tunisian citizens abroad are distinct measures whose overlap depends on the source definitions.", "questions": [ { "text": "Does this Tunisia-related migration statistic measure a resident stock, a change-of-residence flow, citizenship abroad or border crossings?", "kind": "definition", "id": "migration-stock-flow-distinction-q01" }, { "text": "Which residence-duration and coverage rules determine whether returnees and people in transit contribute to the resident population?", "kind": "boundary", "id": "migration-stock-flow-distinction-q02" } ] } ] }, { "id": "population-accounting-and-projections", "name": "Population accounting and projections", "description": "Checks demographic consistency and constrains interpretation of future estimates.", "findings": [ { "id": "demographic-balance-and-scenarios", "name": "Demographic balance and scenarios", "description": "Reconcile population change with births, deaths, net migration and statistical adjustments, then distinguish projected outcomes by their fertility, mortality and migration assumptions.", "questions": [ { "text": "For the selected interval in Tunisia, how closely do births minus deaths plus net migration explain population change, and what residual remains?", "kind": "measurement", "id": "demographic-balance-and-scenarios-q01" }, { "text": "Which projection scenario and base population fit the planning question, and how should uncertainty limit its use?", "kind": "action", "id": "demographic-balance-and-scenarios-q02" } ] } ] } ] }, { "id": "evidence-and-external-alignment", "name": "Evidence and external alignment", "description": "What the world already says about this thing, gathered so the model can be checked against it.", "rationale": "A model that cannot be lined up against existing standards, identifiers and practice cannot be adopted by anyone who already uses them.", "layers": [ { "id": "reported-evidence", "name": "Reported evidence", "description": "Findings from the breadth pass, kept separate from the structural claims.", "findings": [ { "id": "evidence-confidence-notes", "name": "Check these first", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "This is a recall-based description; no sources were consulted and no current numerical estimates are asserted.", "Check Tunisia's Institut National de la Statistique for census reference dates, population coverage and regional definitions.", "Verify whether any dataset measures usual residents, people present, citizens or people of Tunisian origin before comparing figures." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-confidence-notes-q01", "text": "Which of these check these first hold for the sense of demographics of Tunisia this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-kinds", "name": "Kinds and varieties", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "Population size and growth", "Age and sex composition", "Fertility and household formation", "Mortality and longevity", "Internal and international migration", "Spatial distribution and urbanisation" ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-kinds-q01", "text": "Which of these kinds and varieties hold for the sense of demographics of Tunisia this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-identifiers", "name": "Identifiers and schemes", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ { "scheme": "ISO 3166-1", "value_or_pattern": "TN / TUN", "note": "Identifies Tunisia in country-level datasets, not demographics as a field." }, { "scheme": "United Nations M49", "value_or_pattern": "788", "note": "Statistical country code for Tunisia." } ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-identifiers-q01", "text": "Which of these identifiers and schemes hold for the sense of demographics of Tunisia this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-standards-and-regulation", "name": "Standards and regulation", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "United Nations Statistics Division: Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses.", "United Nations Statistics Division: Principles and Recommendations for a Vital Statistics System.", "United Nations General Assembly: Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-standards-and-regulation-q01", "text": "Which of these standards and regulation hold for the sense of demographics of Tunisia this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-real-world-use", "name": "Real-world use", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "Planning schools, healthcare, housing and other public services.", "Projecting labour-force entry, retirement and population ageing.", "Assessing regional differences in population growth and service needs.", "Estimating demand for infrastructure and urban development.", "Analysing migration and its effects on households and population change." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-real-world-use-q01", "text": "Which of these real-world use hold for the sense of demographics of Tunisia this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-measurements", "name": "Typical measurements", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ { "quantity": "Resident population", "typical_range": "Date-dependent; a census or estimate reference date is required.", "unit": "persons" }, { "quantity": "Total fertility rate", "typical_range": "Period-dependent; no numerical range asserted from recall.", "unit": "births per woman" }, { "quantity": "Life expectancy at birth", "typical_range": "Period- and sex-dependent; no numerical range asserted from recall.", "unit": "years" }, { "quantity": "Population density", "typical_range": "Varies by geographic unit and land-area definition.", "unit": "persons per square kilometre" }, { "quantity": "Net migration", "typical_range": "Depends on the reference period and migration definition.", "unit": "persons per period" } ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-measurements-q01", "text": "Which of these typical measurements hold for the sense of demographics of Tunisia this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-failure-modes-and-hazards", "name": "Failure modes and hazards", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "Confusing residents of Tunisia with Tunisian citizens, including citizens living abroad.", "Combining census counts, survey estimates and population projections without distinguishing their dates and methods.", "Missing mobile, temporary or irregular migrant populations.", "Comparing urban or regional figures across changed definitions or administrative boundaries.", "Treating national averages as representative of every region or household." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-failure-modes-and-hazards-q01", "text": "Which of these failure modes and hazards hold for the sense of demographics of Tunisia this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-regional-variation", "name": "Regional variation", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ "Population is concentrated more heavily in northern and coastal areas than in the arid southern interior.", "Greater Tunis and other coastal urban centres differ substantially in settlement density from inland rural areas.", "Migration and differences in fertility and mortality can produce distinct regional age structures." ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-regional-variation-q01", "text": "Which of these regional variation hold for the sense of demographics of Tunisia this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] }, { "id": "evidence-neighbours", "name": "Neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart", "description": "Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.", "evidence": [ { "name": "Demography", "difference": "Demography supplies general theories and methods; this topic applies them specifically to Tunisia." }, { "name": "Population of Tunisia", "difference": "The population is the group of people being counted; its demographics are their statistical characteristics and processes of change." }, { "name": "Geography of Tunisia", "difference": "Geography includes physical environments and spatial relationships beyond population characteristics." }, { "name": "Tunisian diaspora", "difference": "The diaspora concerns people of Tunisian origin living abroad, who are generally outside Tunisia's resident population." } ], "questions": [ { "id": "evidence-neighbours-q01", "text": "Which of these neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart hold for the sense of demographics of Tunisia this model covers, and on what evidence?", "kind": "provenance" } ] } ] } ] } ] }, "openQuestions": [ "Which Tunisian census and demographic releases should anchor the model, and what revisions or coverage assessments accompany them?", "How consistently can governorate boundaries and urban or rural classifications be reconciled across the available time series?", "What evidence establishes birth and death registration completeness, including regional differences and delayed registrations?", "How well do available sources capture emigration, return migration and residents with uncertain or short-term residence status?", "Which demographic composition variables beyond age and sex are directly measured with sufficiently clear definitions to include without inferring identity from nationality or language?" ], "statistics": { "bundles": 6, "layers": 11, "findings": 19, "questions": 29 } }