{
  "vercy": "1.0-draft",
  "publication": {
    "status": "research-draft",
    "adjudicationStatus": "unreviewed",
    "publishableCanonical": false,
    "generatedAt": "2026-09-11T10:13:09Z",
    "providers": [
      "Claude"
    ],
    "breadth": "written by Claude from model knowledge without web access - no source was read, every claim is a lead to verify",
    "pass": 2,
    "wave": 1,
    "engine": "claude",
    "enrichment": {
      "pass": 3,
      "engine": "claude",
      "producedAt": "2026-10-05T17:00:00Z",
      "ingestedAt": "2026-10-05T13:27:49+00:00",
      "fields": [
        "agent_conduct",
        "ethics",
        "owners"
      ]
    },
    "gate": {
      "passed": true,
      "version": "1.0",
      "at": "2026-10-06T19:52:03+00:00",
      "evidence": [
        "completeness 1.00",
        "sense: Wikidata description",
        "2 live sources",
        "review by codex: pass"
      ]
    }
  },
  "metaModel": {
    "id": "THING-Q9492",
    "registryId": "vr.tr.probability",
    "name": "probability",
    "version": "0.2.0-wave.1",
    "entryKind": "thing",
    "family": "Thing Registry",
    "domain": [
      "XCT.QLT"
    ],
    "status": "research-draft"
  },
  "canonicalUrl": "https://ver.cy/models/thing/q9492/",
  "model": {
    "registry_id": "vr.tr.probability",
    "name": "probability",
    "purpose": "Let an agent handle probability by definition, interpretation, calculation and communication of risk, avoiding common fallacies.",
    "definition": "A numerical measure between 0 and 1 of how likely an event is, formalised by Kolmogorov axioms and interpreted in frequentist, Bayesian and other ways; related notions include joint, conditional and error probabilities.",
    "what_it_is_for": "Reasoning under uncertainty in science, engineering, medicine, finance and daily life.",
    "affordances": [
      "compute probabilities of events",
      "apply conditional probability and Bayes theorem",
      "communicate risk clearly",
      "spot common fallacies"
    ],
    "distinguishing_features": [
      "Measure of likelihood",
      "Axiomatic foundation",
      "Several interpretations",
      "Easily misunderstood"
    ],
    "appearance": "Not physical; numbers, fractions and percentages.",
    "visual_identification": [
      "Values from 0 to 1 or 0 to 100 percent",
      "Notation P(A)",
      "Odds are a related but different expression"
    ],
    "physical_properties": [],
    "families_and_kinds": [
      "classical probability",
      "frequentist probability",
      "Bayesian probability",
      "conditional and joint probability",
      "geometric probability"
    ],
    "related_models": [
      {
        "relation": "is a kind of",
        "target": "mathematical object and dimensionless quantity",
        "why": "category"
      },
      {
        "relation": "is studied by",
        "target": "probability theory and statistics",
        "why": "fields"
      },
      {
        "relation": "is related to",
        "target": "odds and risk",
        "why": "expressions"
      },
      {
        "relation": "is used in",
        "target": "decision making",
        "why": "application"
      }
    ],
    "identifiers": [],
    "standards_and_regulation": [
      "ISO 3534 statistics vocabulary"
    ],
    "failure_modes_and_hazards": [
      "Base rate neglect",
      "Gambler fallacy",
      "Confusing relative and absolute risk"
    ],
    "in_scope": [],
    "out_of_scope": [],
    "characteristics": [],
    "agent_conduct": {
      "may": [
        "Compute and explain probabilities, stating assumptions and the interpretation used.",
        "Communicate risk with absolute and relative figures side by side."
      ],
      "must_not": [
        "Present a probability as a certainty or a rare event as impossible.",
        "Use relative risk alone to exaggerate a benefit or harm.",
        "Misstate the probability of a person's guilt from match evidence.",
        "Help design games or bets that mislead players about their odds."
      ],
      "requires_human": [
        "Using probabilistic scores in decisions about a person, such as credit, bail or diagnosis."
      ]
    },
    "ethics": {
      "considerations": [
        "Misread probabilities have led to wrongful convictions and poor medical choices.",
        "Risk scores applied to people can encode bias."
      ],
      "affected_parties": [
        "People judged by risk scores",
        "Patients and juries"
      ]
    },
    "owners": {
      "steward": "Nobody: a mathematical concept held in common.",
      "master_systems": []
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "wikidata",
      "title": "Wikidata item Q9492: probability",
      "url": "https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9492",
      "url_status": "live",
      "what_it_supports": "identity and sense of the item",
      "checked_by": "wikidata-api"
    },
    {
      "id": "wikipedia-en",
      "title": "Wikipedia: Probability",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability",
      "url_status": "live",
      "what_it_supports": "general description of the item",
      "checked_by": "wikidata-api sitelink"
    }
  ],
  "structure": {
    "bundles": [
      {
        "id": "calculation",
        "name": "Calculation",
        "description": "Computing.",
        "rationale": "Rules compute probability.",
        "layers": [
          {
            "id": "event",
            "name": "Event",
            "description": "Probability of event.",
            "findings": [
              {
                "id": "event-finding",
                "name": "Event",
                "description": "Event probability.",
                "questions": [
                  {
                    "text": "What is the probability of this event?",
                    "kind": "measurement"
                  },
                  {
                    "text": "Which assumptions are used?",
                    "kind": "boundary"
                  }
                ]
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "id": "conditional",
            "name": "Conditional",
            "description": "Bayes.",
            "findings": [
              {
                "id": "conditional-finding",
                "name": "Conditional",
                "description": "Conditional probability.",
                "questions": [
                  {
                    "text": "What is the probability given this evidence?",
                    "kind": "measurement"
                  },
                  {
                    "text": "Is the base rate included?",
                    "kind": "boundary"
                  }
                ]
              }
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "interpretation",
        "name": "Interpretation",
        "description": "Meaning.",
        "rationale": "Interpretations differ.",
        "layers": [
          {
            "id": "meaning",
            "name": "Meaning",
            "description": "Frequentist or Bayesian.",
            "findings": [
              {
                "id": "meaning-finding",
                "name": "Meaning",
                "description": "Interpretation.",
                "questions": [
                  {
                    "text": "Is the probability a long-run frequency or a degree of belief?",
                    "kind": "definition"
                  },
                  {
                    "text": "Does it matter here?",
                    "kind": "boundary"
                  }
                ]
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "id": "model",
            "name": "Model",
            "description": "Assumptions.",
            "findings": [
              {
                "id": "model-finding",
                "name": "Model",
                "description": "Model assumptions.",
                "questions": [
                  {
                    "text": "Which model generates the probability?",
                    "kind": "provenance"
                  },
                  {
                    "text": "How sensitive is it to assumptions?",
                    "kind": "boundary"
                  }
                ]
              }
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "communication",
        "name": "Communication",
        "description": "Risk.",
        "rationale": "Clear communication matters.",
        "layers": [
          {
            "id": "format",
            "name": "Format",
            "description": "Natural frequencies.",
            "findings": [
              {
                "id": "format-finding",
                "name": "Format",
                "description": "Risk format.",
                "questions": [
                  {
                    "text": "Would natural frequencies such as 1 in 100 be clearer?",
                    "kind": "action"
                  },
                  {
                    "text": "Is absolute risk given alongside relative risk?",
                    "kind": "boundary"
                  }
                ]
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "id": "fallacies",
            "name": "Fallacies",
            "description": "Errors.",
            "findings": [
              {
                "id": "fallacies-finding",
                "name": "Fallacies",
                "description": "Fallacies.",
                "questions": [
                  {
                    "text": "Is a common fallacy such as the gambler fallacy involved?",
                    "kind": "boundary"
                  },
                  {
                    "text": "How can it be corrected?",
                    "kind": "action"
                  }
                ]
              }
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "applications",
        "name": "Applications",
        "description": "Uses.",
        "rationale": "Probability informs decisions.",
        "layers": [
          {
            "id": "medical",
            "name": "Medical",
            "description": "Tests.",
            "findings": [
              {
                "id": "medical-finding",
                "name": "Medical",
                "description": "Medical tests.",
                "questions": [
                  {
                    "text": "What is the probability of disease given a positive test, in general terms?",
                    "kind": "measurement"
                  },
                  {
                    "text": "Should results be discussed with a clinician?",
                    "kind": "action"
                  }
                ]
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "id": "gambling",
            "name": "Gambling",
            "description": "Odds.",
            "findings": [
              {
                "id": "gambling-finding",
                "name": "Gambling",
                "description": "Gambling odds.",
                "questions": [
                  {
                    "text": "What are the true odds compared with offered odds?",
                    "kind": "measurement"
                  },
                  {
                    "text": "Where can someone get help with problem gambling?",
                    "kind": "action"
                  }
                ]
              }
            ]
          }
        ]
      }
    ]
  },
  "openQuestions": [
    "Should interpretations be separate entries?",
    "How should risk communication guidance be linked?",
    "How should odds be related?"
  ],
  "statistics": {
    "bundles": 4,
    "layers": 8,
    "findings": 8,
    "questions": 16
  }
}