ethnic cleansing
Enable an AI agent to assess evidence of identity-targeted coercive removal from a territory, track its progression and continuing effects, and support protection and accountability decisions.
Research draft, second pass
A second pass drafted this model: the structure a model of this thing needs, and what is known about it in the world. The line under this one says how the second half was obtained - researched against sources, or recalled without web access, in which case nothing here was read anywhere and every claim is a lead to verify. Unreviewed either way.
Researched by: Codex
Purpose and description
Enable an AI agent to assess evidence of identity-targeted coercive removal from a territory, track its progression and continuing effects, and support protection and accountability decisions.
It can be Assess whether reported displacement warrants investigation as possible ethnic cleansing, identifying supporting and contrary evidence.; Connect identity-targeted incidents into a provisional campaign while preserving local differences and disputed links.; Track active removal, population loss and continuing barriers to return with explicit uncertainty.; Prepare privacy-preserving evidence summaries for authorized protection and accountability review.; Flag urgent protection needs without waiting for a settled campaign label.; Compare proposed responses against affected people's preferences, responder authority and risks of further coerced movement..
Distinguishing features
Require evidence connecting identity-based selection, coercion and a territorial removal objective; demographic change alone does not establish ethnic cleansing. This working boundary follows the [UN account of ethnic cleansing](https://www.un.org/en/genocide-prevention/definition).
Distinguish removal from voluntary migration by examining credible threats, imposed living conditions and whether people had a practicable choice to remain.
Distinguish an alleged protective evacuation from identity-targeted expulsion by examining selection, justification, treatment, duration and actual opportunities to return; an evacuation label is insufficient.
Distinguish territorial removal intent from intent to destroy a protected group: ethnic cleansing and genocide can overlap, but neither label automatically establishes the other. See [UN definitions of atrocity crimes](https://www.un.org/en/genocide-prevention/definition).
Distinguish persecution or segregation without removal from a campaign aimed at expelling a population; record connections without treating these concepts as interchangeable.
Scope
+ Selection of people for removal through attributed ethnic or religious identity
+ Evidence of an objective to change a territory's population composition through coercive removal
+ Connected acts, threats and imposed conditions that cause displacement
+ Episode boundaries, actor relationships and changes in territorial control
+ Displacement outcomes, continuing exclusion and conditions for voluntary return
+ Claim-specific uncertainty, protection priorities and accountability referrals
- General ethnic identity classification and population registries
- Complete models of armed conflict, military operations or territorial sovereignty
- Independent legal determinations of genocide, crimes against humanity or war crimes
- Individual refugee status, asylum applications and immigration administration
- Complete humanitarian logistics and resettlement programme management
- Standalone property litigation and cultural heritage inventories
Characteristics
- Targeted population and attributed identity
- Population linked to alleged selection criteria, attributing actor and supporting evidence; self-identification recorded separately when relevant and consented Establishes selective targeting without treating perpetrator-assigned categories as objective identities.
- Territorial removal objective
- Unassessed, alleged, supported, contested or unsupported; dated assessment with reasoning Separates an inferred objective from displacement outcomes alone.
- Affected territory
- Named or mapped areas with time-dependent boundaries and control relationships Locates the removal objective and prevents misleading comparisons across changing boundaries.
- Coercive displacement mechanism
- Reported violence, threats, forced transport, expulsion orders, destruction of habitation, deprivation, administrative exclusion or other evidenced mechanism Connects conduct to loss of a practicable choice to remain.
- Displaced population estimate
- Unique persons and households; dated range, geographic coverage, estimation method and duplicate adjustment Measures scale without confusing repeated movements with additional people.
- Targeted population displacement proportion
- Percentage or interval using an explicit pre-displacement population denominator; unknown where unsupported Makes magnitude interpretable while exposing uncertain baseline data.
- Campaign phase
- Warning indicators, active removal, paused removal, continuing exclusion, return underway or unresolved; multiple phases may coexist by locality Prevents cessation of expulsions from being mistaken for resolution.
- Actor involvement
- Actor linked to alleged ordering, execution, facilitation, control or obstruction, with dates and evidence status Supports specific attribution without assigning collective responsibility.
- Return feasibility
- Unknown, blocked, unsafe, conditional or practicable; assessed separately for safety, voluntariness, access and residence Tests whether displacement is being maintained despite formal permission to return.
- Assessment support
- Uncorroborated, independently corroborated, contradicted or unresolved for each claim; judicial findings recorded with exact scope Keeps evidence quality separate from severity and legal characterization.
Also called
Where this came from
wikidata · CC0 1.0
Also registered as vr.tr.ethnic-cleansing
Drafted structure
Bundle to layer to finding to question, as the second pass will find it: 6 bundles · 12 layers · 12 findings · 35 questions.
Targeting and territorial purpose Establish who is selected for removal, from where and with what evidenced objective.
The assessment depends on the relationship between identity selection and territorial exclusion.
Population selection
Examine how actors identify and differentially treat the population they seek to remove.
Identity-linked selection
Record evidence that attributed ethnic or religious identity affects exposure to removal, including exceptions and mixed households.
- Which identities do the alleged actors attribute to those selected, and how is that attribution evidenced? definition
- What comparative evidence shows differential treatment of similarly situated people outside the targeted population? measurement
- Which exceptions, mixed households or alternative selection explanations challenge the targeting assessment? boundary
Territorial objective
Separate evidence of intended population removal from demographic outcomes and assumptions.
Removal purpose evidence
Assess statements and conduct that support or undermine an objective to remove the targeted population from a defined area.
- What territory is allegedly intended to exclude the population, and how did its boundaries change over time? boundary
- Which authenticated statements, orders or patterns of conduct support the removal objective? provenance
- Which competing explanations have been examined, and what evidence distinguishes them? boundary
Coercion and displacement Examine how people lose a practicable choice to remain and how particular departures relate to that coercion.
Departure records alone cannot distinguish coerced removal from other population movements.
Conditions for departure
Record acts and imposed conditions that constrain remaining in place.
Coercive environment
Connect reported threats, violence, deprivation or expulsion measures to the options available to affected people.
- What specific acts or conditions made remaining dangerous or impracticable, for whom and during which period? definition
- What testimony or contemporaneous records connect those conditions to decisions to leave? provenance
- Was apparent consent obtained under threats or conditions that removed a meaningful alternative? boundary
Movement and alternative explanations
Reconstruct displacement while examining claims of evacuation, general flight or voluntary migration.
Departure causation
Record origins, timing and destinations at a safe level of detail, distinguishing observed movement from inferred causes.
- Which movements followed documented coercive acts, and which have uncertain or multiple causes? provenance
- Where evacuation is claimed, what evidence establishes its justification, identity selection, temporary character and actual return arrangements? boundary
- How many unique people moved, over what period, and how are repeated displacement and missing observations handled? measurement
Campaign and actor attribution Determine which incidents belong together and what can be attributed to particular actors.
A campaign assessment needs supported connections across incidents and specific attribution of conduct.
Incident linkage
Test whether local removals form a connected episode or campaign.
Campaign boundaries
Group incidents through evidenced connections while retaining uncertain links and distinct local trajectories.
- Which shared orders, actors, selection practices or coordinated events connect the incidents? provenance
- What evidence determines the campaign's temporal and geographic boundaries rather than merely proximity between incidents? boundary
Actor roles and control
Separate ordering, execution, assistance and territorial control.
Attributed conduct
Record actor-specific allegations and supported findings without inferring responsibility from ethnicity or organizational membership alone.
- Which actor is linked to each removal-related act, in what role and through which evidence? provenance
- What evidence supports effective control or coordination, and what limits or contradicts that inference? boundary
- Who controlled the affected territory when removal or obstruction of return occurred? measurement
Population loss and continuing exclusion Measure displacement outcomes and examine whether the targeted population remains excluded.
The model must recognize both ongoing removal and persistence of its effects.
Demographic outcomes
Compare population presence over time without treating composition changes as proof of intent.
Population change accounting
Track displacement, remaining residents and return with uncertainty and consistent geographic coverage.
- What baseline supports estimates of the population removed or remaining, and how uncertain is it? measurement
- How are displacement, deaths, missing persons, return and unrelated migration distinguished without double counting? measurement
- Could changing boundaries, identity categories or observation access explain part of the measured population change? boundary
Maintenance of exclusion
Examine obstacles to safe residence and voluntary return.
Return and residence barriers
Assess threats, restrictions, destroyed homes, dispossession and other evidenced barriers that sustain exclusion.
- Which present barriers prevent affected people from returning or residing safely, and who maintains them? provenance
- Do reported returns represent durable residence, temporary visits or movement under pressure? measurement
- What would affected people need for a voluntary and safe choice among return, local integration or settlement elsewhere? action
Evidence and characterization Keep the campaign assessment auditable and distinguish descriptive conclusions from legal determinations.
Serious allegations require explicit evidentiary support, competing interpretations and precise attribution of findings.
Claim-level evidence
Record the basis, independence and limitations of evidence for each material claim.
Corroboration and contradiction
Separate observations, testimony and inference while recording contradictions and reporting gaps.
- Which accessible source supports each claim about targeting, coercion, intent or exclusion, and what did that source directly establish? provenance
- Are apparently corroborating accounts independent or derived from the same witness, document or report? provenance
- What contradictory evidence or inaccessible population could materially change the assessment? boundary
Descriptive and legal boundaries
Record who applies each characterization and the evidentiary or legal basis they use.
Characterization status
Maintain separate assessments of ethnic cleansing and any alleged underlying crimes; the term is not a standalone international crime according to the [UN explanation](https://www.un.org/en/genocide-prevention/definition).
- Who characterizes the episode as ethnic cleansing, using what definition and evidentiary standard? provenance
- Which underlying crimes require separate assessment of their elements, jurisdiction and applicable law? boundary
- Which conclusions are allegations, investigative assessments or judicial findings, and what is the precise scope of each? definition
Protection and response Connect the current situation to protective decisions, safe documentation and authorized review.
The model must guide responses to coerced removal without exposing affected people or making assistance depend on a settled label.
Current protection needs
Identify immediate threats of removal, repeated displacement and retaliation.
Protective action priorities
Record time-sensitive needs and proposed measures in relation to affected people's choices and responder capabilities.
- Which people face imminent expulsion, renewed coercion or retaliation, and what evidence establishes urgency? measurement
- Which authorized responders can address those threats, and what preferences have affected people expressed? action
- Could a proposed evacuation, relocation or aid condition pressure people to leave or prevent their return? action
Safe documentation and review
Support evidence preservation and referral while limiting exposure of identities and locations.
Disclosure and referral constraints
Determine what can be preserved, shared or escalated without facilitating targeting or compromising witnesses.
- Which identity, location or testimony details could expose survivors, witnesses or people who remain? boundary
- What consent, authority, access restrictions and evidence-preservation procedures govern each proposed disclosure? action
- Which unresolved findings require specialist review, and what minimum evidence can be safely referred? action
What the second pass must settle
- Which operational definition and evidentiary threshold should govern a supported ethnic-cleansing assessment when an explicit removal order is absent?
- How should the model handle contested identities and targeting through proxies such as language, ancestry, nationality or residence?
- What evidence best distinguishes identity-targeted removal from general conflict flight or a claimed protective evacuation in mixed-cause cases?
- When should geographically separated expulsions be treated as one campaign, and when should continuing exclusion be assessed as a distinct episode?
- Which indicators justify describing a campaign as ended when expulsions have stopped but safe residence, voluntary return and remedies remain unresolved?