recession

Attributed recession test

An assessment must identify its rule and distinguish a quarterly output test from a broader assessment of economic activity.

1. Who adopts this definition, and does it use consecutive real GDP declines, multiple activity indicators or another explicit test? definition
2. How does the rule weigh depth, duration and breadth, and which combinations remain matters of judgment? boundary

Aggregate contraction boundary

Coverage and aggregation choices determine whether a downturn is economy-wide or confined to a narrower unit.

1. Which economy is the unit of assessment, and are activity measures aggregate, per capita or defined another way? definition
2. What evidence distinguishes this episode from a sectoral slump, growth slowdown or prolonged stagnation under the chosen definition? boundary

Convergent and conflicting signals

Indicators may describe different parts of activity and need not turn together.

1. Which measures of real output, employment, real income, production or sales are used, and why are they appropriate for this economy? measurement
2. Where do indicators disagree, and how does the classification procedure resolve or preserve that disagreement? boundary

Reproducible evidence snapshot

Each assessment records the releases, transformations and revisions on which it depends.

1. Which source releases and vintages support the assessment, and what seasonal adjustment, inflation adjustment and growth-rate conventions were used? provenance
2. Would revisions, missing observations or measurement uncertainty change whether the recession test is met? measurement

Dated contraction interval

Episode dates require an explicit convention and may remain provisional until later evidence arrives.

1. What peak and trough dates or intervals are supported, and how does the dating convention include or exclude their periods? measurement
2. Who assigned these dates, when were they announced, and what supports treating an apparent rebound as an interruption or an episode boundary? provenance

Multidimensional severity

Severity retains separate measures of output loss, labour deterioration and diffusion rather than relying on the label alone.

1. What are the peak-to-trough changes in selected activity measures, and which baselines and units make episode comparisons valid? measurement
2. What proportion of sectors and regions contracted, using which weights, and where was deterioration concentrated? measurement

Supported causal accounts

Competing explanations are recorded with evidence and limitations rather than inferred from temporal coincidence.

1. Which accounts attribute onset or propagation to demand, supply, credit, external trade or policy changes, and what evidence supports each? provenance
2. Which observations distinguish a causal driver from a coincident symptom or consequence of contraction? boundary

Distribution beyond the aggregate

Aggregate contraction measures do not establish who experienced losses or whether those losses persisted.

1. Which groups experienced changes in employment, real income, business survival or financial stress, over what comparison period? measurement
2. Which observed harms can be linked to this episode, and which may reflect pre-existing trends or separate shocks? boundary

Conditional use of the label

An agent communicates the evidence date and uncertainty and identifies the specific decision for which classification matters.

1. Is the claim a forecast, a current assessment or retrospective dating, and what uncertainty must accompany it? boundary
2. Which decision depends on the recession assessment, and what additional evidence or authority does that decision require? action

Separate recovery milestones

Recovery milestones are indicator-specific and must state whether they refer to growth, levels or a counterfactual path.

1. Which indicators show contraction ending, which have regained their pre-recession levels, and which remain below an explicitly estimated trend? measurement
2. What new release, revision or renewed decline would trigger reassessment of the trough or the recovery claim? action

Check these first

Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.

• The intended sense is inferred to be macroeconomic recession; the registry supplies no sense definition.
• The listed kinds overlap and do not constitute a standardised taxonomy; causal classifications require evidence about individual episodes.
• This is recall rather than source-checked research. Verify the relevant jurisdiction's dating conventions before assigning recession dates.

1. Which of these check these first hold for the sense of recession this model covers, and on what evidence? provenance

Kinds and varieties

Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.

• Technical recession: two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP under a commonly used shorthand definition
• Demand-driven recession
• Supply-shock recession
• Balance-sheet recession
• Double-dip recession: renewed contraction following a brief recovery

1. Which of these kinds and varieties hold for the sense of recession this model covers, and on what evidence? provenance

Real-world use

Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.

• Business-cycle dating and historical comparison
• Informing monetary and fiscal policy decisions
• Stress testing business plans, credit portfolios and public budgets
• Forecasting employment, household income and demand
• Comparing the causes, severity and recovery paths of economic contractions

1. Which of these real-world use hold for the sense of recession this model covers, and on what evidence? provenance

Typical measurements

Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.

• Real GDP growth - Often negative during recession; no universal cutoff, and some quarters within a recession may show growth - percent change over a specified interval
• Peak-to-trough decline in real output - Episode-dependent; no universally defining range - percent
• Duration of contraction - Usually measured over months or quarters; minimum-duration conventions differ - months or quarters
• Change in unemployment rate - Often positive, but neither a fixed increase nor exact coincidence with recession dates is required - percentage points

1. Which of these typical measurements hold for the sense of recession this model covers, and on what evidence? provenance

Failure modes and hazards

Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.

• Treating two negative GDP quarters as a universal or sufficient definition
• Confusing slower positive growth with an outright contraction
• Using nominal output changes without accounting for inflation
• Ignoring data revisions, seasonal adjustment and differences between quarterly and annualised growth rates
• Assuming that a recession's end means output, employment or living standards have returned to their previous peaks

1. Which of these failure modes and hazards hold for the sense of recession this model covers, and on what evidence? provenance

Regional variation

Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.

• In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee assesses multiple indicators, weighing depth, diffusion and duration rather than applying a fixed two-quarter rule.
• In many countries, public discussion uses two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP, although statistical agencies, researchers and governments may apply different conventions.
• National, euro-area and global recession assessments concern different economic aggregates; a contraction in one country does not establish a global recession.

1. Which of these regional variation hold for the sense of recession this model covers, and on what evidence? provenance

Neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart

Recalled without web access and unsourced; every item is a lead to verify.

• Economic slowdown - Growth weakens but may remain positive; recession involves a significant decline in activity.
• Depression - Usually denotes an exceptionally severe or prolonged contraction; no universally agreed numerical boundary separates it from recession.
• Stagnation - Activity remains weak or grows little over an extended period without necessarily undergoing a distinct recession.
• Deflation - The general price level falls; recession concerns economic activity and can occur with rising prices.
• Financial crisis - Financial institutions or markets suffer major disruption; a crisis can cause a recession but is not necessary for one.
• Per-capita recession - Real output per person contracts, potentially while aggregate real GDP continues to grow.

1. Which of these neighbouring kinds and how to tell them apart hold for the sense of recession this model covers, and on what evidence? provenance