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Research draft

business cycle

vr.tr.business-cycle · ACT.PRC

Let an agent explain business cycles and their phases, relay dating and indicators from official and research bodies, present theories and policy responses with attribution, and route investment decisions to licensed advisers.

Thing Registry Activities and processes

Research draft, second pass

A second pass drafted this model: the structure a model of this thing needs, and what is known about it in the world. The line under this one says how the second half was obtained - researched against sources, or recalled without web access, in which case nothing here was read anywhere and every claim is a lead to verify. Unreviewed either way.

written by Claude from model knowledge without web access - no source was read, every claim is a lead to verify

Researched by: Claude

Purpose and description

Let an agent explain business cycles and their phases, relay dating and indicators from official and research bodies, present theories and policy responses with attribution, and route investment decisions to licensed advisers.

The recurring but irregular fluctuation of economic activity around its long-run trend, with phases of expansion, peak, contraction and trough measured by output, employment and other indicators; business cycles are dated by bodies such as the NBER, explained by competing theories, and addressed by monetary and fiscal policy.

What it is for: Not applicable; a pattern in economic activity.

It can be explain phases and indicators; relay official cycle dating; present theories with attribution; explain policy responses in general terms.

Distinguishing features

Recurring but irregular

Economy-wide fluctuation

Dated by reference committees

Subject of competing theories

What it looks like

Not visible; a pattern in charts of output and employment.

Physical character

typical length: about 2-10 years - irregular; varies by economy and era

How it is recognised

Expansion, peak, contraction, trough

Dated by committees using multiple indicators

Seasonal patterns and long waves are different concepts

Related models

is a kind of - in the economy

cyclic process

includes - the contraction phase

recession

is dated by - in the United States

National Bureau of Economic Research

is addressed by - and fiscal policy

monetary policy

In practice

Families and kinds

classical and growth cycles

recessions and recoveries

sectoral cycles such as shipping and insurance cycles

long waves such as Kondratiev waves, a contested concept

financial cycles

Standards and regulation

Cycle dating methods of the NBER and CEPR

Statistical standards for national accounts

Failure modes and hazards

Predicting turning points with false confidence

Presenting one theory as fact

Agents giving investment advice

Also called

Kondratiev waveInsurance cyclesoft landingshipping cycleeconomic recoveryretail life cycle

Where this came from

wikidata · CC0 1.0

Source repository Registry entry point

Drafted structure

Bundle to layer to finding to question, as the second pass will find it: 4 bundles · 8 layers · 8 findings · 16 questions.

Concept What a business cycle is.

Definition.

Phases

Phases.

Phases

Phases.

  1. What are the phases of a business cycle, and how are they defined? definition
  2. Is the question about the business cycle or a seasonal or long-wave pattern? boundary

Dating

Dating.

Dating

Dating.

  1. How do committees date cycles, and where are the dates published? provenance
  2. Which entry fits recession? action
Measure Indicators.

Data.

Indicators

Leading and lagging indicators.

Indicators

Indicators.

  1. Which indicators track the cycle, and how reliable are leading indicators? measurement
  2. Which sources are cited? provenance

Forecast

Forecasting limits.

Forecast

Forecast.

  1. What is known about the limits of forecasting turning points? provenance
  2. Is the user asking for investment timing, which the model does not give? boundary
Theory Explanations.

Attribution.

Theories

Theories.

Theories

Theories.

  1. How do Keynesian, real business cycle, monetarist and other theories explain cycles, with attribution? provenance
  2. Is the presentation neutral? boundary

Policy

Policy responses.

Policy

Policy.

  1. How do monetary and fiscal policy respond to cycles, and how are responses assessed by named institutions? provenance
  2. Which entry fits macroeconomic policy? action
History History and teaching.

History.

Episodes

Historical cycles.

Episodes

Episodes.

  1. What are the major historical cycles and crises, and what do studies conclude? provenance
  2. Which references are standard? provenance

Teach

Teaching.

Teach

Teaching.

  1. How are business cycles taught, and which misconceptions arise? provenance
  2. Which entry fits macroeconomics? action

What the second pass must settle

  • Should recession be the primary entry?
  • How should dating committee records be linked?
  • The registry entry has merged aliases for sectoral cycles and long waves; should they be split off?
Draft as JSON