Published
future
vr.tr.future · thing-q344
Let an agent handle the future by horizon, domain, method and uncertainty, separating forecasts from speculation.
Thing Registry Cross-cutting context XCT.TME
Bundle → Layer → Finding → QuestionsClassifiersWhat it isWhy it existsDistinguishing featuresWhat robots and AI may and may not doMoral aspectsOwnersLinks to other meta-modelsIdentity and identifiersDirect propertiesRecognitionCapabilities and actionsHazards and failure modesStandards and interfacesContext of useSources
Bundle → Layer → Finding → Questions Filled
4 bundles · 8 layers · 8 findings · 16 questions
Horizon How far ahead.
Span
Near or far.
Span
Horizon.
- How far ahead is the question about? measurement
- Which methods suit that horizon? definition
Domain
Field.
Domain
Domain.
- Which domain is the future question about? definition
- Which specific entry fits? action
Forecasting Predictions.
Forecast
Estimate.
Forecast
Forecast.
- What do reputable forecasts say, and with what uncertainty? provenance
- Who made them? provenance
Track record
Accuracy.
Track record
Accuracy.
- How accurate have similar forecasts been? measurement
- Were they evaluated? provenance
Scenarios Possible futures.
Options
Alternatives.
Options
Scenarios.
- What plausible scenarios exist? definition
- What drives them? definition
Planning
Decisions.
Planning
Planning.
- How should plans adapt to different scenarios? action
- What early signs matter? definition
Limits Speculation.
Labelling
Fact vs speculation.
Labelling
Labelling.
- Is speculation clearly labelled as such? boundary
- Are sources given? provenance
Senses
Grammar and finance.
Senses
Other senses.
- Is the future tense or a futures contract meant? boundary
- Which entry fits? action
Classifiers Filled
- Family
- Thing Registry
- Category
- Cross-cutting context
- Entry kind
- thing
- Plane
- XCT
- Domain
- XCT.TME
- Other names and narrower kinds
- tonight, far future, future of humanity, future of mathematics, near future
What it is Filled
The time after the present moment, including the near and far future; the subject of forecasting, planning, futures studies and speculation.
Why it exists Filled
Let an agent handle the future by horizon, domain, method and uncertainty, separating forecasts from speculation.
Distinguishing features Filled
- Not yet happened
- Uncertain
- Studied through forecasting and foresight
- Depends on present choices
What robots and AI may and may not do Filled
Must not
- Present predictions as certainties.
- Use fear of the future to manipulate people into decisions.
- Sell fortune telling or forecasts of personal fate as reliable.
- Ignore future generations' interests in long-term advice.
Only with a human decision
- Acting on long-term forecasts that commit others' resources.
May
- Make forecasts and scenarios with stated assumptions and uncertainty.
- Help people plan for future events.
Moral aspects Filled
- Decisions today bind future generations who cannot speak.
- False certainty about the future misleads people.
Who is affected
- Future generations
- People making plans
- The public
Owners Filled
Steward
Nobody owns the future; forecasters answer for their forecasts.
Links to other meta-models Filled
parent
- Q11471 - registry parent class
related
- time - category
- past and present - times
- futures studies - field
- forecast - method
What else AI and robots need to interact with it Filled
Identity and identifiers required Filled
- Vercy registry: vr.tr.future
- Wikidata: Q344 (https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q344)
Direct properties not applicable Not applicable
Not applicable
Plane XCT: no invented physical properties.
Recognition optional Filled
- Horizons such as tonight, near future, far future
- Forecasts and scenarios
- Future tense in grammar is a related sense
- Not observable; represented by plans, forecasts and scenarios.
Capabilities and actions required Filled
- plan for near-term events
- forecast with stated uncertainty
- build scenarios
- study long-term futures
Hazards and failure modes required Filled
- Presenting speculation as fact
- Overconfident forecasts
- Ignoring uncertainty
Standards and interfaces required Filled
- Foresight practice guidance
Context of use required Filled
- Planning, forecasting and imagining what comes next.
- near future
- medium term
- far future
- futures of fields such as mathematics
- future of humanity studies
Sources Filled
- Wikidata item Q344: future - identity and sense of the item
- Wikipedia: Future - general description of the item
Open questions
- Should horizons be separate entries?
- How should forecasts be linked?
- How should the grammatical sense be split off?
Machine files
Provenance
thing registry research (pass 2) · unreviewed
Built from: models/things/publications/thing-q344/spec.json