future
Let an agent handle the future by horizon, domain, method and uncertainty, separating forecasts from speculation.
Research draft, second pass
A second pass drafted this model: the structure a model of this thing needs, and what is known about it in the world. The line under this one says how the second half was obtained - researched against sources, or recalled without web access, in which case nothing here was read anywhere and every claim is a lead to verify. Unreviewed either way.
written by Claude from model knowledge without web access - no source was read, every claim is a lead to verify
Researched by: Claude
Purpose and description
Let an agent handle the future by horizon, domain, method and uncertainty, separating forecasts from speculation.
The time after the present moment, including the near and far future; the subject of forecasting, planning, futures studies and speculation.
What it is for: Planning, forecasting and imagining what comes next.
It can be plan for near-term events; forecast with stated uncertainty; build scenarios; study long-term futures.
Distinguishing features
Not yet happened
Uncertain
Studied through forecasting and foresight
Depends on present choices
What it looks like
Not observable; represented by plans, forecasts and scenarios.
How it is recognised
Horizons such as tonight, near future, far future
Forecasts and scenarios
Future tense in grammar is a related sense
Related models
is a kind of - category
is contrasted with - times
is studied by - field
is estimated by - method
In practice
Families and kinds
near future
medium term
far future
futures of fields such as mathematics
future of humanity studies
Standards and regulation
Foresight practice guidance
Failure modes and hazards
Presenting speculation as fact
Overconfident forecasts
Ignoring uncertainty
Also called
Where this came from
wikidata · CC0 1.0
Also registered as vr.tr.future
Drafted structure
Bundle to layer to finding to question, as the second pass will find it: 4 bundles · 8 layers · 8 findings · 16 questions.
Horizon How far ahead.
Horizon decides methods.
Span
Near or far.
Span
Horizon.
- How far ahead is the question about? measurement
- Which methods suit that horizon? definition
Domain
Field.
Domain
Domain.
- Which domain is the future question about? definition
- Which specific entry fits? action
Forecasting Predictions.
Forecasts need uncertainty.
Forecast
Estimate.
Forecast
Forecast.
- What do reputable forecasts say, and with what uncertainty? provenance
- Who made them? provenance
Track record
Accuracy.
Track record
Accuracy.
- How accurate have similar forecasts been? measurement
- Were they evaluated? provenance
Scenarios Possible futures.
Scenarios explore options.
Options
Alternatives.
Options
Scenarios.
- What plausible scenarios exist? definition
- What drives them? definition
Planning
Decisions.
Planning
Planning.
- How should plans adapt to different scenarios? action
- What early signs matter? definition
Limits Speculation.
Speculation must be labelled.
Labelling
Fact vs speculation.
Labelling
Labelling.
- Is speculation clearly labelled as such? boundary
- Are sources given? provenance
Senses
Grammar and finance.
Senses
Other senses.
- Is the future tense or a futures contract meant? boundary
- Which entry fits? action
What the second pass must settle
- Should horizons be separate entries?
- How should forecasts be linked?
- How should the grammatical sense be split off?