opinion poll
Let an agent explain opinion polls, relay methodology, uncertainty, regulation and limitations from survey research and professional standards sources, describe the named poll types and flag instances, report specific poll results only with attribution and dates, and distinguish opinion polls from referendums, push polls, exit polls and self-selected online votes.
Research draft, second pass
A second pass drafted this model: the structure a model of this thing needs, and what is known about it in the world. The line under this one says how the second half was obtained - researched against sources, or recalled without web access, in which case nothing here was read anywhere and every claim is a lead to verify. Unreviewed either way.
written by Claude from model knowledge without web access - no source was read, every claim is a lead to verify
Researched by: Claude
Purpose and description
Let an agent explain opinion polls, relay methodology, uncertainty, regulation and limitations from survey research and professional standards sources, describe the named poll types and flag instances, report specific poll results only with attribution and dates, and distinguish opinion polls from referendums, push polls, exit polls and self-selected online votes.
A survey of public opinion on a topic or voting intention, conducted by sampling a population through telephone, face-to-face or online methods and weighting results, with reported margins of error, pioneered in modern form by George Gallup, whose 1936 US election forecast outperformed the Literary Digest straw poll, and including deliberative opinion polls developed by James Fishkin and online polls, while push polls are a campaign tactic disguised as polls; the registry aliases also name polling for specific contests such as the 2022 Israeli legislative election, the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election and opinion polling on a United Ireland, which are instances. Poll results are estimates, not predictions, and are attributed.
What it is for: Measuring public opinion.
It can be explain methodology and uncertainty; relay standards and regulation; describe named poll types; report results with attribution.
Distinguishing features
Sampling
Weighting
Margin of error
Snapshot not forecast
What it looks like
Not a visible object; published as tables, charts and trackers.
Physical character
Gallup 1936 forecast: 1936 year
deliberative polling: 1988 year - James Fishkin
typical national sample: about 1000 respondents - margin of error about plus or minus 3 points
How it is recognised
Survey of public opinion
Push poll, 2022 Israeli election polling, deliberative opinion poll, online opinion poll, United Ireland polling, 2024 Taiwan election polling
Referendums are binding votes; push polls are persuasion tactics; exit polls survey voters leaving polls; self-selected online votes are unscientific
Related models
is a kind of - in registry terms
includes -
is contrasted with -
is contrasted with -
In practice
Families and kinds
voting intention polls
issue polls
tracking polls
deliberative polls
online panel polls
push polls as a misuse
Standards and regulation
AAPOR Code of Professional Ethics
British Polling Council disclosure rules
Pre-election poll publication blackouts in some countries
Failure modes and hazards
Presenting polls as certain predictions
Citing results without dates, sample and source
Amplifying push polls or unscientific polls
Also called
+1
Where this came from
wikidata · CC0 1.0
Drafted structure
Bundle to layer to finding to question, as the second pass will find it: 4 bundles · 8 layers · 8 findings · 16 questions.
Understand What an opinion poll is.
Attribution.
Definition
Definition.
Definition
Definition.
- What is an opinion poll, and how does it differ from referendums, push polls, exit polls and self-selected online votes? definition
- Is the question about methodology, a specific result or a suspicious poll call? boundary
Types
Named types and instances.
Types
Types.
- What are push, deliberative and online polls, and what were polls for the named Israeli, Taiwanese and United Ireland questions, with results attributed? definition
- Which entry fits the specific poll? action
Method Methodology.
Sources.
Sampling
Sampling and weighting.
Sampling
Sampling.
- How do pollsters sample and weight respondents? provenance
- Which references are standard? provenance
Error
Uncertainty.
Error
Error.
- What does a margin of error mean, and what other errors affect polls? measurement
- Which sources are cited? provenance
Rules Standards and regulation.
Regulation.
Disclosure
Disclosure standards.
Disclosure
Disclosure.
- What must pollsters disclose under AAPOR and BPC rules? provenance
- Which entry fits American Association for Public Opinion Research? action
Blackouts
Publication blackouts.
Blackouts
Blackouts.
- Which countries restrict publishing polls before elections? provenance
- Which entry fits election silence? action
Context History and misses.
Context.
History
History.
History
History.
- How did Gallup s 1936 success and the 1948 miss shape polling? provenance
- Which entry fits Literary Digest? action
Misses
Polling misses.
Misses
Misses.
- What explanations have been offered for recent polling errors, with analyses attributed? provenance
- Is the presentation neutral and attributed? boundary
What the second pass must settle
- The registry aliases for specific elections should be split off as instances
- How should professional polling standards be linked?
- How should poll aggregators be recorded?